Winter medium range model pbp I

[franklin NCwx]

Yeah most euro ensemble members take a low thru the panhandle southern GA, to right on the coast.

[msuwx]

A couple of low locations of note on the EPS at 186:

996 just N of MHX

Cluster of lows just around HAT. One is west over the sounds at 1002MB. One is 981MB(!) and just about 50 miles east of the island. The furthest

east option is about 90-100 miles east at 1005.

1003MB 150 miles SE of ILM

By far the biggest cluster of lows is on the coast. There's one 991MB low over Greenwood, SC.

 

Yep, interesting that a number of the ensemble members show a pretty classic CAD, Miller-B-ish setup.

 

And you are correct, very little support for the cutting idea.

[BullCityWx]

Yeah most euro ensemble members take a low thru the panhandle southern GA, to right on the coast.

996 over MHX would bury you and me and probably everybody west of 77. Look at E19.

[BullCityWx]

Yep, interesting that a number of the ensemble members show a pretty classic CAD, Miller-B-ish setup.

And you are correct, very little support for the cutting idea.

I sure hope so. I'm puzzled as to why it's so warm at the SFC though.

[burgertime]

Not getting the warm fuzzies about this potential anymore, I hate when cut offs get left behind, been happening all winter and nobody in the east has ended up getting snow. On the Euro the H5 vort tracks right down I-40, not sure why the SLP is that far SE, it should be a MA winter storm based on that.  Blah....

 

lol really? While I don't think we take this to the bank it's a little too early to hit the panic button or get depressed. I think the worst case scenario is our energy ends up in the meat grinder and we get a really weak suppressed look. If the overall pattern is correct even with that someone will likely cash in with a light snow...and then we really get ready for some fun and games in Feb. 

[tnweathernut]

996 over MHX would bury you and me and probably everybody west of 77. Look at E19.

Overused, yes...............but "check please".

 

All kidding aside, there are multiple good looks in the euro ensembles, but many that are less than optimal.  I think at the very least someone will get to track in the coming couple of days and a thread may even need to be started.  Will be interesting to see what solution modeling begins to consolidate around (probably by Sunday/Monday)

[Jon]

I sure hope so. I'm puzzled as to why it's so warm at the SFC though.

The 00z EPS is much colder at the surface than the 12z so I wouldn't worry about 2m temps yet.

[tnweathernut]

lol really? While I don't think we take this to the bank it's a little too early to hit the panic button or get depressed. I think the worst case scenario is our energy ends up in the meat grinder and we get a really weak suppressed look. If the overall pattern is correct even with that someone will likely cash in with a light snow...and then we really get ready for some fun and games in Feb. 

Evidently there is a LOT of warming going on in the strat so maybe we finally bust up things over the top and this helps the AO and maybe even the NAO heading deeper into February.  

One thing that I have noticed is the warm up, similar to last year, is verifying much weaker and of shorter duration.  If we get back into that for the rest of the winter, then it's only a matter of time before someone scores, with the PDO pumping the ridging out west and the propensity for a -EPO.

 

Overall, I am extremely encouraged, whether the 23rd works or not.

[burgertime]

I sure hope so. I'm puzzled as to why it's so warm at the SFC though.

 

My guess is it's a combo of two things. First models are struggling to get the cold air over the apps like they always do. If you look freezing SFC temps are held off basically right at the apps. Second is once the storm comes in it looks like it's not working in hardly any dynamic cooling. 

[Cold Rain]

I sure hope so. I'm puzzled as to why it's so warm at the SFC though.

 

There is weak high pressure in a good spot that builds SE in tandem with the low.  This is shown on the Op GFS (0z and 6z) and the Euro.  I didn't look at the CMC.  Both features are actually in really good spots for a SE snowstorm.  But the high is weaker than I would like to see.  The temps to the north don't seem to be bitterly cold, although we don't need that.  Still, it looks marginal.

 

The thing I am most concerned about is that we need the northern stream to press in order to keep the system south (assuming it doesn't wind up).  The northern stream always presses at 192.  At 24, it tends to be farther north, more times than not.  That's my biggest worry at this point.

[WidreMann]

The problem with the cold air is that there's no delivery mechanism. Notice all the SLPs in southern Canada. There are *no* cold highs anywhere. Euro isn't much different. While we have a trough in the east, there isn't enough troughing further north, or enough blocking in the Atlantic to push the cold air south. So we basically have very stale "cool" air to work with and that's just not going to cut it. Unless that situation improves, we will be getting rain storms. Period.

[packbacker]

lol really? While I don't think we take this to the bank it's a little too early to hit the panic button or get depressed. I think the worst case scenario is our energy ends up in the meat grinder and we get a really weak suppressed look. If the overall pattern is correct even with that someone will likely cash in with a light snow...and then we really get ready for some fun and games in Feb. 

 

LOL, the eternal optimist but yet you agree.

[WidreMann]

we go over this every storm...ground temps are not as big of a deal as people make them out to be.  it was 75 3 days before the snow in west columbia, sc back on nov 1 and i saw 4" on the ground.  heavy rates can easily overcome ground temps.

Day before ground temps don't matter, but ground temps when it's precipitating do. There's no cold air source and the cold air that's around isn't that cold. That matters. That's how you get a rain storm even with cold upper-level temps.

[msuwx]

The problem with the cold air is that there's no delivery mechanism. Notice all the SLPs in southern Canada. There are *no* cold highs anywhere. Euro isn't much different. While we have a trough in the east, there isn't enough troughing further north, or enough blocking in the Atlantic to push the cold air south. So we basically have very stale "cool" air to work with and that's just not going to cut it. Unless that situation improves, we will be getting rain storms. Period.

 

Some of the ensemble members have a perfect CAD setup with highs located in eastern Lakes/ SE Canada, or the Northeast. So this thing is far, far from certain. 

[franklin NCwx]

I'm more worried about a weak non event than a cutter.

[Jon]

The problem with the cold air is that there's no delivery mechanism. Notice all the SLPs in southern Canada. There are *no* cold highs anywhere. Euro isn't much different. While we have a trough in the east, there isn't enough troughing further north, or enough blocking in the Atlantic to push the cold air south. So we basically have very stale "cool" air to work with and that's just not going to cut it. Unless that situation improves, we will be getting rain storms. Period.

The problem I have with this is the timing and source of the cold keeps changing from run to run...Just compare 12z Jan 24th, both at 850mb and at the surface and look at the placement of the low. This is far from being figured out and I'm not sure how one can be 100% confident that there will be rain storms...this has plenty of room to improve from what it is but it's not a bad look where it stands. By 180hrs on the GFS is freezing all the way to 918mb, yes we'll need a cold surface for it to stick but this isn't a rain storm, at least for RDU. What I'm trying to say is the timing of the low isn't even known at this point so you don't know if this is going to be overnight or not either.

 

Actually, forget what I said by 180 if you look at the 00z of the GFS, by 198 (large amount of precip falling over NC) we have freezing all the way down to 975. 1000mb temp is 1.5. That's snow. Just saying it's far from being decided.

[packbacker]

I'm more worried about a weak non event than a cutter.

 

Yep, I liked it better when the Euro was showing a strong SLP cutting then this weak phase crap off the coast which leaves a cut off behind.  I am not at all worried about this tracking west of us or getting a cold rain.  I would be happy if this cuts and runs up the Apps, atleast someone would get snow.  It's mid-Jan, look at the conus for mid-Jan, nothing going on...zzzzzzzzz

 

Feb is going to rock though.

[burgertime]

There is weak high pressure in a good spot that builds SE in tandem with the low.  This is shown on the Op GFS (0z and 6z) and the Euro.  I didn't look at the CMC.  Both features are actually in really good spots for a SE snowstorm.  But the high is weaker than I would like to see.  The temps to the north don't seem to be bitterly cold, although we don't need that.  Still, it looks marginal.

 

The thing I am most concerned about is that we need the northern stream to press in order to keep the system south (assuming it doesn't wind up).  The northern stream always presses at 192.  At 24, it tends to be farther north, more times than not.  That's my biggest worry at this point.

 

If storms were winding up and cutting this year I would be worried....but so far storms have tended to be suppressed vs. further north. Look no further than that freezing drizzle event earlier. 

[Cold Rain]

If storms were winding up and cutting this year I would be worried....but so far storms have tended to be suppressed vs. further north. Look no further than that freezing drizzle event earlier. 

 

I agree about the winding up part.  I'm not really concerned about that.  I certainly could see the meat grinder scenario, like you pointed out.  But, the freezing drizzle situation did not have a defined wave like this one is.  So, even though it could be suppressed, I still think someone gets meaningful precip.  Based on years of watching this stuff, a well-defined surface low taking a favorable track at D8 usually turns into a more northern solution as we get in.  Doesn't have to be wound up, but even a low tracking through TN or up through the Piedmont of NC would be rain....unless we do get CAD, in which case we'd be likely to see a Miller B.

 

One thing in my mind that argues against the meat grinder is that we don't see a big wound up PV in SE Canada.  The suppression is because of well-timed northern stream shortwaves digging SE.  We're basically seeing the perfect situation play out now.  Without a big squashing PV, I think a northern correction is more likely.

[Jon]

I completely understand that snow will accumulate even with warm temps on prior days..  I remember last year.

 

However, it will cut into any total as the first .5-1 inch may melt as it cools the ground.

That's fine if we're talking about a large totals storm. If it was lacking moisture and spitting out 1-2" max per run I'd be on Widre's boat. It's not doing that though. This has a chance of being a big producer, so cutting into the first 1-2 inches won't really matter in the end. I just don't understand not liking this look it makes me go "come on really?"...we all know we aren't going to be in a blockbuster pattern so I think people are expecting some kind of monster high and yeah that will not happen, but we don't need it as much as some imply.

[mackerel_sky]

If storms were winding up and cutting this year I would be worried....but so far storms have tended to be suppressed vs. further north. Look no further than that freezing drizzle event earlier.

Yesterday's snowjam 15 in AL, was more north than what was modeled.

[franklin NCwx]

Yesterday's snowjam 15 in AL, was more north than what was modeled.

that was originally modeled by the euro to be a decent storm. GFS really had nothing, we saw what happened.

[burgertime]

I agree about the winding up part.  I'm not really concerned about that.  I certainly could see the meat grinder scenario, like you pointed out.  But, the freezing drizzle situation did not have a defined wave like this one is.  So, even though it could be suppressed, I still think someone gets meaningful precip.  Based on years of watching this stuff, a well-defined surface low taking a favorable track at D8 usually turns into a more northern solution as we get in.  Doesn't have to be wound up, but even a low tracking through TN or up through the Piedmont of NC would be rain....unless we do get CAD, in which case we'd be likely to see a Miller B.

 

One thing in my mind that argues against the meat grinder is that we don't see a big wound up PV in SE Canada.  The suppression is because of well-timed northern stream shortwaves digging SE.  We're basically seeing the perfect situation play out now.  Without a big squashing PV, I think a northern correction is more likely.

 

I guess what I was saying was early on in modeling it did. It looked like it was going to be a possible overrunning or coastal low situation and a few times the models tried to run it inland. That seems to be the case with a lot of storms with long lead times. The models are making them too progressive or on the other side just totally killing them. I also don't buy the cutoff low sitting there for days like models are coming back to. It seems to be abnormally frustrating watching models this winter. 

[burgertime]

Yesterday's snowjam 15 in AL, was more north than what was modeled.

 

Was the track further north or just the precipitation shield? Those are two totally different things. I honestly have no idea as I wasn't keyed in on that one. 

[Cold Rain]

I guess what I was saying was early on in modeling it did. It looked like it was going to be a possible overrunning or coastal low situation and a few times the models tried to run it inland. That seems to be the case with a lot of storms with long lead times. The models are making them too progressive or on the other side just totally killing them. I also don't buy the cutoff low sitting there for days like models are coming back to. It seems to be abnormally frustrating watching models this winter. 

 

Yeah, I agree.  The flow is very messy and fast.  I'm surprised we've actually had several runs in a row with such a strong signal for a great-tracking low.

[SnowNiner]

GSP is taking notice already....insert classic "they're normally conservative cliche'" wherever you like...

 

AS WE GET INTO THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK...THE SITUATION GROWS MORE
INTERESTING AND MORE UNCERTAIN. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT A
MEAN UPPER TROF WILL DEEPEN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH A MORE
ACTIVE SRN STREAM. THIS RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF A SFC LOW
ORGANIZING OVER THE NRN GULF AND MOVING PAST TO THE SOUTH AND OFF
THE SE COAST WHILE SOME COLDER AIR IS NOT ALL THAT FAR REMOVED TO
THE NORTH. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECWMF BOTH FEATURE SOME KIND
OF LOW THAT COULD SPREAD WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA...BUT NOT UNTIL JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FCST LATE THURSDAY.
THE TIMING IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN...BUT THERE IS A BIT MORE
CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL DRY OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LULL OF SORTS
FOR THURSDAY. THIS ACTION WILL ELIMINATE MOST OF THE MENTION OF
PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ANY
RAIN/SNOW MIX E OF THE MTNS. IN EFFECT...THOUGH...IT MIGHT ONLY BE A
DELAY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW THE MODELS
TREND. THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED FURTHER WITH THE NEXT FCST PACKAGE...
WHICH WILL INCLUDE FRIDAY.

 

Personally things look great right now for a week out IMO.  If we do get a CAD event with this I'd assume the temps could get nice and cold as we've seen a few time this winter (just not with precip).  I don't know why everybody is so down on this.  I betcha somebody in NC is going to get some snow from this.  May not be CLT, but somebody.  I'm looking at you I-40ers......

[burgertime]

12z is basically nothing so far. We'll see if that energy diving into the sw will do anything 

[strongwxnc]

The moisture is just hanging out in the GOM at 162.

 

12z is basically nothing so far. We'll see if that energy diving into the sw will do anything 

[tnweathernut]

12z is basically nothing so far. We'll see if that energy diving into the sw will do anything 

There is just so much in the northern flow.  Even if it goes to something, I have little confidence in what the thermal profile will look like.  Where will our cold air come from?

[WxBlue]

The cold is much deeper on 12z run than 0z for 1-21/22 time frame.