deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 EURO is kinda "draggin' its booty" with the southern piece. Looks more GFS ish...not quite there, but maybe going that way..DEF Different from the 12z run..at hour 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It appears yet "another" EURO solution is coming up...hr 156 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 168 looks cold...850mb are pretty dang cold, and if 2m are right...*who cares at this point for those details* its all snow from Central MS and pushing into AL...VERY LIGHT** QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 850 0C line is over S MS to south of MGM to CSG to MCN to AGS to CAE** or JUST South of there at hour 174 with what should be, if 2m temps are aight, ALL snow from those places northward. nothing super heavy, but its there...Yet ANOTHER look from the EURO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 So the Euro has went from a cutter to a southern slider in two runs. What a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Please for the love of the DRUNK DOC!!!! Cash out NOW!!!! hr 180 says lets hammer some peeps with some snow over GA, SC, NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 This looks like a boardwide hit on the 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Please for the love of the DRUNK DOC!!!! Cash out NOW!!!! hr 180 says lets hammer some peeps with some snow over GA, SC, NC Sounds very similar to the GFS, no? Glad I stayed up for this run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Hows 192 look dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Sounds very similar to the GFS, no? Glad I stayed up for this run lol And weather.com went from rain/snow to all rain. Sounds like a win to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Hows 192 look dog Like a 989 MB rainstorm in the Atlantic ocean. 2M Temps are pretty warm for this event though. I'm not in your region so I don't know the biases but even the crappy Euro snow algorithm doesn't produce much snow except for in the mountains and in NC and it's generally under 2-4" in most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Hows 192 look dog its over by then and OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I was gonna say, EURO says this is a rain storm for just about everyone, because of its BS 2m temps showing..I find it VERY hard to have that warm of a look with a cold 850 layer and some fairly low thickness. I know its not going to be super cold, but more than likely a lot of that will be snow. We shall see, its just 1 run, and hell...its the 5th different look we have seen from the DOC over the last 5 runs...it did trend toward the GFS tonight, I will say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Like a 989 MB rainstorm in the Atlantic ocean. 2M Temps are pretty warm for this event though. I'm not in your region so I don't know the biases but even the crappy Euro snow algorithm doesn't produce much snow except for in the mountains and in NC and it's generally under 2-4" in most places. There's no way it's raining here with sub-540 thicknesses and 850s of -5C, IMO. Maybe I'm a weenie, but that seems borderline impossible in our climo (this isn't Seattle). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 thanks for the pbp folks. off to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Close enough for heavy precip to say "screw your 36F in KCAE" and continue pouring down to drop the temps. Good look ESPECIALLY for NC.to see Wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Euro is weak and offshore, control is too. The ensemble mean is farther west and has a coastal hugger. Hoping yet another storm does not fade as we get closer. I would almost feel better if the euro was showing a cutter right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Thanks for the pbp, great job everyone . Local weatherman even mentioning 7 days out here in triad. 3rd day in a row with eitheir winter weather advisory or freezing fog advisory.Schools on 3hr delay again. Freezing fog makes for a pretty scene, but I'm ready for the real deal, pure snow, preferably knee deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 6z gfs still has the storm. It's suppressed a bit on this run, and the surface reflection doesn't seem to throw as much precip back west as you might think it should. Let's see what the rest of the day brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I think a southern slider is the most likely solution at the end of the day. Hopefully we can get enough energy that it really dumps on us and for selfish reasons I hope it doesn't hit us till late Friday/Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I think a southern slider is the most likely solution at the end of the day. Hopefully we can get enough energy that it really dumps on us and for selfish reasons I hope it doesn't hit us till late Friday/Saturday. I would say the southern slider is the best option right now as well. Plenty of time with this one tho. Any word from the doc ENS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Just a heads up he is talking about the other Sean. Long standing joke since once the board owner before this accused him of being a drunk. hi. I'm a little hung over this mor ning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I would say the southern slider is the best option right now as well. Plenty of time with this one tho. Any word from the doc ENS?mean is farther west than the op, low on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 That's not bad. I'll take it. Sounds right where we want to be. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 That's not bad. I'll take it. Sounds right where we want to be. Sent from my iPhone This is a good look 7 days out! I would rather be missed by a southern slider , than to get more cold rain! At this point, getting missed to the South, would be a win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Matthew East does a great job showing and discussing the overnight model runs and the 6z gfs in his video this morning. It will get you all caught up and ready for today's model pbp's. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4z3nNhrQzB4&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Not getting the warm fuzzies about this potential anymore, I hate when cut offs get left behind, been happening all winter and nobody in the east has ended up getting snow. On the Euro the H5 vort tracks right down I-40, not sure why the SLP is that far SE, it should be a MA winter storm based on that. Blah.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 One of the cool maps on weatherbell is low locations on the euro ensemble. There's a couple of members that really bomb this thing out in the Atlantic. There's only 3 or so that cut through Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Not getting the warm fuzzies about this potential anymore, I hate when cut offs get left behind, been happening all winter and nobody in the east has ended up getting snow. On the Euro the H5 vort tracks right down I-40, not sure why the SLP is that far SE, it should be a MA winter storm based on that. Blah.... Pack it looks like the positive tilt in the southern plains keeps the sfc low from ramping up and cutting. The 18z and 00z GFS are what we need to see...some northern/southern stream phasing to get a storm with precip, but also, positive tilt as it moves through the southern plains to keep the surface low to the southeast and temps in check. Last 3 runs of the GFS Ens had 5-6 members out of 12 showing a hit in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 A couple of low locations of note on the EPS at 186: 996 just N of MHX Cluster of lows just around HAT. One is west over the sounds at 1002MB. One is 981MB(!) and just about 50 miles east of the island. The furthest east option is about 90-100 miles east at 1005. 1003MB 150 miles SE of ILM By far the biggest cluster of lows is on the coast. There's one 991MB low over Greenwood, SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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