Wow Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Classic snowstorm for W TN/NC/upstate SC and GA per 0z GFS for Jan 23. I think this one could turn into more of a monster depending on how much energy get phased into the s/w. It's a little washy on the energy over the arctic/polar jet with the weak low around the high pressure field. Expect the HP to trend stronger as the seperation of the stream picked up on as we head closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 We have a significant cold air problem, though. The high pressure is pretty weak and there's no good cold air source. If it is snow, this would be a warm storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 ummm..shots fired?? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Classic snowstorm for W TN/NC/upstate SC and GA per 0z GFS for Jan 23. I think this one could turn into more of a monster depending on how much energy get phased into the s/w. It's a little washy on the energy over the arctic/polar jet with the weak low around the high pressure field. Expect the HP to trend stronger as the seperation of the stream picked up on as we head closer. I hope not. It is pretty close to perfect for many as is modeled on the 0Z GFS. Weak lows usually are the big widespread SE US SN producers. Turn it into a monster and see it go too far north/be too warm for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I-85 corridor gets crushed from GA thru NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Looks like a pretty slow-mover. It's like a 24 hour storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 verbatim 2m look MEH...but, I ain't worry about that right now...So, does the DOC stock go up now? or the hell with it right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 verbatim 2m look MEH...but, I ain't worry about that right now...So, does the DOC stock go up now? or the hell with it right now? Watch the DOC come out with a 4th different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Watch the DOC come out with a 4th different solution. How many runs in a row for the GFS now with a decent storm? 6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I hope not. It is pretty close to perfect for many as is modeled on the 0Z GFS. Weak lows usually are the big widespread SE US SN producers. Turn it into a monster and see it go too far north/be too warm for many. There is a kicker s/w on its heels per this run so that would keep the phasing in check. I'd like to see more separation of the streams to allow for more confluence over the NE. Surface temps are marginal with the muddy HP field verbatim. Getting a cutoff low would be good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 well, if modeled right, this would certainly help out a bunch for sure. BTW, I was wrong, no snow to me, but pretty darn close. As Larry said, Northern 1/3 of GA would see some. Nice run..Lets see what the drunk Doc has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 verbatim 2m look MEH...but, I ain't worry about that right now...So, does the DOC stock go up now? or the hell with it right now?It may be wrong, but man , I love the new GFS / old para or whatever! It has shown some amazing winter storms in the South in lr since it's inception Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 verbatim 2m look MEH...but, I ain't worry about that right now...So, does the DOC stock go up now? or the hell with it right now?Yeah, verbatim, it's a rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It may be wrong, but man , I love the new GFS / old para or whatever! It has shown some amazing winter storms in the South in lr since it's inceptionJust the like the GFS of years ago. Nostalgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Watch the DOC come out with a 4th different solution. I'm going to put a bet on a big dog solution, possibly for the MA and NE as well. Like old times.. Euro with the big phased storm and GFS with the no phase/out to sea solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 That'd be par for the course this winter. FINALLY get a potential big dog after the pain and agony of the first half of winter, only to have the perfect track, but produce only rain outside of the mountains. If this becomes a mountain special, I'm chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Folks, It looks like we have a problem with the GFS upgrade. It appears to have a significant warm bias at two meters at least when there is steady precip., possibly even warmer than the Euro. The old GFS didn't have this problem. Dang. I'd ignore the two meter temp.'s with regard to the 1/23 snowstorm. With 850's just below 0C, a cold high to the north, and steady sig. precip. that would be sig sticking SN and 2M temp.'s close to 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 That'd be par for the course this winter. FINALLY get a potential big dog after the pain and agony of the first half of winter, only to have the perfect track, but produce only rain outside of the mountains. If this becomes a mountain special, I'm chasing. We'd be fine with that setup. Your area was a little too far north to get as much snow on this run in particular, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Folks, It looks like we have a problem with the GFS upgrade. It appears to have a significant warm bias at two meters, possibly even warmer than the Euro. The old GFS didn't have this problem. Dang. I'd ignore the two meter temp.'s with regard to the 1/23 snowstorm. With 850's just below 0C, a cold high to the north, and steady sig. precip. that would be sig sticking SN and 2M temp.'s close to 32. I've heard from some guys in the Northeast that the Para GFS had a significant warm bias at 2m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I'm going to put a bet on a big dog solution, possibly for the MA and NE as well. Like old times.. Euro with the big phased storm and GFS with the no phase/out to sea solutions. With all of this excitement, I'm betting on a disappointment. Seriously though, 00z GFS was a great run for WNC. It's too bad what's good for us is bad for those east of Triad (went through this disappointment many times before college). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 00z GFS tries to give us another on the 28th but it's inland over NC. Tons of moisture though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Folks, It looks like we have a problem with the GFS upgrade. It appears to have a significant warm bias at two meters at least when there is steady precip., possibly even warmer than the Euro. The old GFS didn't have this problem. Dang. I'd ignore the two meter temp.'s with regard to the 1/23 snowstorm. With 850's just below 0C, a cold high to the north, and steady sig. precip. that would be sig sticking SN and 2M temp.'s close to 32. Yup. Someone posted this graphic a couple of weeks ago in old Patterns thread and, as y'all can see, it's a torch for those below Boone's elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 We'd be fine with that setup. Your area was a little too far north to get as much snow on this run in particular, though. True enough, but you KNOW (if it stays a threat, that is) we'll get that NW tick closer to the storm. Me and Frosty will cash in! $$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yup. Someone posted this graphic a couple of weeks ago in old Patterns thread and, as y'all can see, it's a torch for those below Boone's elevation. Bias or not, 0.2-0.4 degrees isn't gonna get us to a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The 00z GGEM is warmer. Looks like a decent hit for N NC and the NC/TN mountains, but not much elsewhere. It is a pretty classic track, though maybe a little too far north as it rounds the bend (it passes over Savannah). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Bias or not, 0.2-0.4 degrees isn't gonna get us to a snowstorm. Considering this is two years worth of data from thousands of runs with insane amount of calculations being done, the average of 0.2-0.5 above actual temperature after all of that is pretty significant IMO. This could mean differences by a couple of degrees, which is huge while looking at winter storms in this region. Just something to keep in mind until GFS get another major update down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Bias or not, 0.2-0.4 degrees isn't gonna get us to a snowstorm. The warm bias for this potential storm is probably 5 or more degrees for some areas imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The warm bias for this potential storm is probably 5 or more degrees for some areas imo. It would have to be in order to get mby some fantasy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 hmmm on the doc so far....This looks like its def. going to be different than the 12z run so far. out to 6z wed so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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