Marion_NC_WX Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Watching the computer models this winter has been like Clark Griswald driving around the traffic circle in London, the same crap over and over...Big Ben, Parliment... Looks interesting at 192...nothing new there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The UKMET and Canadian are terrible. Time to punt this one, I'm afraid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Nice PNA ridge Day 8-9...we have seen that crap too many times in recent weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The UKMET and Canadian are terrible. Time to punt this one, I'm afraid... Did the UK have that strong cutter too? I was shocked to see it on the GGEM as well as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Did the UK have that strong cutter too? I was shocked to see it on the GGEM as well as the GFS. The UKMET is not strong with it... Looks more like a clipper based on the free maps, but it's not a snow setup in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Watching the computer models this winter has been like Clark Griswald driving around the traffic circle in London, the same crap over and over...Big Ben, Parliment... Looks interesting at 192...nothing new there! Feb 6th-ish storm is the one to watch for sure....the 500mb look on the 18z GFS was fully supported by the GEFS mean. Not sure why people are holding out for the earlier storm it isn't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The UKMET and Canadian are terrible. Time to punt this one, I'm afraid... Yeah, I gave it until Tuesday like I said...Next! The 2/5-2/6 time frame looked interesting but I haven't seen a run with the cold we need. Right now that doesn't look like it's going to work out. Still time though. Grits ensemble member looked good but you know how that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Feb 6th-ish storm is the one to watch for sure....the 500mb look on the 18z GFS was fully supported by the GEFS mean. Not sure why people are holding out for the earlier storm it isn't happening. Hey Jon... The concerning thing for me on the 2/6 storm is the lack of cold. There is cold around but I haven't seen a run where the cold was this far south when the storm arrives. It looks like a juicy system and hope it works out but I have my doubts. I will definitely be watching it though.. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Well, the 00z Canadian has a winter storm for some on D9-10. Always 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Hey Jon... The concerning thing for me on the 2/6 storm is the lack of cold. There is cold around but I haven't seen a run where the cold was this far south when the storm arrives. It looks like a juicy system and hope it works out but I have my doubts. I will definitely be watching it though.. LOL! The cold has yet to be figured out, I agree, but from what I'm seeing there's too much flip flopping in the highs during this time...The storm signal is there, though, and has been on both the euro OP/GFS OP, and their ensemble means. The ridge out west is impressive on the means for this time frame as well. The cold just isn't figured out yet...we could be too warm, sure, but 18z didn't look bad either. If you look at 6z, 12z, 18z, 0z and loop each of them, you can see huge differences in not only the strength of the high but timing. The timing will need to be perfect or this could be a cold chasing moisture situation even if we get a strong high to roll through. So much is unknown about this storm due to the fact that it's 9 days away or so, but the ingredients are there. I'm watching the +PNA on the means build, if that trends away we're in trouble, but the storm signal is there. This won't cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLKeene123 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 00Z Euro Running. Maybe it will be total opposite of other major models tonight? lol I could only dream so.....Is anyone observing this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLKeene123 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Pretty much silent here since the latest runs of the other Global Models.....Im hopeful before winter ends there will be something in my neck of the woods, Im in prime location for a CAD setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Im up lol not by choice damn toothache! I didn't really buy the placement of the hp on 0z GFS curious what solution the CRAZY doc has lol Very interested in the 2/6 range....i know chasing ten day events is all this winters produced..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Pretty much silent here since the latest runs of the other Global Models.....Im hopeful before winter ends there will be something in my neck of the woods, Im in prime location for a CAD setup. Welcome to the board there's a really great group here there's rarely a dull moment, i can guarantee ya that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 00Z Euro Running. Maybe it will be total opposite of other major models tonight? lol I could only dream so.....Is anyone observing this run? Cuts through Kentucky for system #1. We'll see what it does with the D9 system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLKeene123 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Im up lol not by choice damn toothache! I didn't really buy the placement of the hp on 18z GFS curious what solution the CRAZY doc has lol Very interested in the 2/6 range....i know chasing ten day events is all this winters produced..... Well from what I can interpret through the free maps I have access to, the 00z Euro is a cutter. I only get 24 hour increments but the lp system is over Kentucky at hour 120. Well there's really not much discrepancy anymore between major models on this weekends solution. Well.... moving on to the next disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLKeene123 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Welcome to the board there's a really great group here there's rarely a dull moment, i can guarantee ya that! Thanks! Yeah I've noticed, lol I've lurked for awhile, mostly doing my own research, model watching, whatnot. But yeah I used to be a full time poster over at foxcarolina a couple years ago. Andy Wood, a local met, was a great weather blog writer, he took a job elsewhere, not sure where he ended up, but he was definitely entertaining and quite brilliant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Thanks! Yeah Ive noticed, lol Ive lurked for awhile, mostly doing my own research, model watching, whatnot. But yeah I used to be a fulltime poster over at foxcarolina a couple years ago. Andy Wood, a local met, was a great weather blog writer, he took a job elsewhere, not sure where he ended up, but he was defiantly entertaining and quite brilliant. I lurked myself before finally joining last year during the 02/12/14 storm. Ive learned alot on here there's some intelligent along with entertaining posters in here. Lol Andy Wood watched a many of his forecasts not a bad met IMO. Back to the weekend storm, yeah i agree guys looks like a cutter solution is starting to prevail. I read the free maps from Penn State along with help from these guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It looks like the Feb. 6 system took a step in the right direction. Further inland this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLKeene123 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Interesting LP shown at 192h on 00z Euro. Right off the SC coast. 850 temps that are shown are too warm unless your southern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The Euro is really close on February 4th. Unfortunately, a nice HP slides out to sea just when the storm gets cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The Euro is really close on February 4th. Unfortunately, a nice HP slides out to sea just when the storm gets cranking. In another place and time this winter might be funny... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Now we have 3 events on 6z GFS : same cutter on 2nd, with tstorms, then the 4th and 7th, both gulf lows, both rain! Looks great for winter weather lovers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Now we have 3 events on 6z GFS : same cutter on 2nd, with tstorms, then the 4th and 7th, both gulf lows, both rain! Looks great for winter wet weather lovers! FTFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Models, particularly the GFS, do not look good for wintery precip for the next couple of weeks. Even at day 16 of the 6z GFS there would be nothing coming in the near term. One thing to note: we've seen the models swing from one interpretation to another and I would not be surprised to see another swing soon (maybe today); but I do think our chances for this Sunday are gone. I was hoping yesterday we would see a favorable shift but that didn't happen. **cannot believe the amount of positive days for the NAO. We had one drop in late December but everything else has been positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro had snow changing to rain last night, a general 2-4" from GSP to CLT and points N&W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro had snow changing to rain last night, a general 2-4" from GSP to CLT and points N&W That would the 2/4 system. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 That would the 2/4 system. Sent from my iPhone Yup, cold shot incoming at D10 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Cold chasing moisture. That always works out! The 6z GFS was a dumpster fire and the ONLY positive is, it may change at 12z, but it seems locked in on the Superbowl storm track through WV! The next great storm on everybody's radar, the 4-6th, was a dumpster fire, with chicken grease, bacon grease, gasoline , and Nitroglycerin on top! The cold just can't be found anywhere near the moisture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 In a strange way I am thankful for the dumpster fire this winter has been because it has taught me that no matter what indices you have in your favor it still doesn't guarantee anything. I think we could have a -NAO, -AO, +PNA, -EPO, etc... and still find a way to have it warm up and rain this year. At least in future years I will not have any expectations no matter how things look whether good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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