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Winter medium range model pbp I


GaWx

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Yesterday was like a whirlwind dumpster fire, with the whole NYC bust! Trying to keep track of everything, was like Brick trying to keep up with WWE plots or reading models

 

The WWE didn't even have a live show last night because of the travel bann/Blizzard.  Heh.

 

Like some have said; the bust in NYC wouldn't have been such a "bust" if it wasn't NYC.  I think many of us here in the SE would gladly take what they call a bust and consider it a win.  Putting all the eggs in the Euro like they did was the main mistake most likely.  I don't work there and don't care to judge them though.

 

FWIW, the 00z NAM isn't too far off from the 18z GFS at 500mb.  That could be a good thing if you believe the NAM totally stinks.

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I really don't think there is .005% chance it could happen but does anyone have a clown map for the 18z gfs ending at hour 216? It should be good for entertainment and the midweek threat has been there fore several runs.

Between the two storms, Roanoke is around 13-14". Charlottesville looks like the jackpot area with closer to 20". That would be an amazing five-day stretch for much of Virginia if the 18z GFS were to verify.

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Between the two storms, Roanoke is around 13-14". Charlottesville looks like the jackpot area with closer to 20". That would be an amazing five-day stretch for much of Virginia if the 18z GFS were to verify.

That second one has had a scary icy look to it too!  That was supper wet looking in the Carolina's!

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Looking at the 18z GFS, I can guarantee that low track won't go across ATL , it may be 100-200 miles to the NW or to the SE , I have not seen a storm take that track in the winter! I'm banking on the SE trend, with the polar vortex being pushed further south, by one of the clippers coming through later in the week, book it!

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I think the low/clipper on Thursday into Friday, which is around 1004 MB early on , is decently strong, if it winds up, could force the vortex south and the track of Sunday event south. That's a pretty decent low and looks wound up, on 0z gfs

Edit: 998 in Maine on Sat, should provide a little slowing of progression, keeping high longer and forcing low more South, hopefully

Edit: will never do a pbp again, this is just plain stupidity! When there are no big hitters/ posters doing it, there's a reason, suck fest continues, the feb 6 storm will produce... In DC

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A 996 over WV?  I don't think so.  Might be there indeed, but doubt  at 996.

It goes 986 over W PA and 981 over Albany or so. There's a lot of weird on this run, that's for sure. Not buying the wraparound snow for the same reason, there's no way it's anywhere near that strong if it takes this path.

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