metwannabe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It is a cutter...but not a massive lakes cutter. If you at 5h the difference is almost night and day you have a 50/50 low (well almost one anyways) and the PV is in better position. This should help setup colder air after this storm....but I want to see in future runs if it keeps pushing the PV and 50/50 low better. Also on this run our energy out west is less organized. Don't think the storm is going to happen but I like the changes the GFS is making. It's not really a cutter . A low tried to pop across Mississippi but the Ohio calley low became the dominant feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Well it was not a cutter. The southern low basically gave into the Ohio valley low If we get better PV placement and that 50/50 low is stronger you should see that energy head pretty far south. Probably not going to happen but something to look for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Northern stream killer On the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Once again, sacrificing a storm for a chance at another behind (better setup). It's been happening all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Northern stream killer On the gfs. Yep, the blocking was better though. A little -AO would go a long way here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yep. 11+ days out.... Once again, sacrificing a storm for a chance at another behind (better setup). It's been happening all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Once again, sacrificing a storm for a chance at another behind (better setup). It's been happening all year. It seems we have seen positive things on the models all winter, but not enough to make a difference for snow. I guess that is why I have seen so many days of 40s and rain this winter. Close but no cigar so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It seems we have seen positive things on the models all winter, but not enough to make a difference for snow. I guess that is why I have seen so many days of 40s and rain this winter. Close but no cigar so far. Something could be setting up in the longer range from what I see so far. It'd probably be best to show just too warm this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The bad thing about the GFS is by the time that energy in Texas gets to us it will probably be too warm. Can't even win on the fantasy threat! lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Seems gasping at straws. Models look great far away then within 6 days poof blizzards go to rain. Just not our year. Maybe we will get lucky soon. Appreciate all the PBP from u guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 We just need one to get to that 133% + of average guys. Heading into Feb, I'm not sure why everyone is trying to give up so soon. Someone is going to end up with a storm at some point. What are the real odds that pretty much everyone gets only a trace at best? The modeling isn't the absolute worst there can be. Plenty of shots at a potential storm if things line up well. We go through the same thing every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The UK looks to have shifted much further south with the low running through N-GA. The 0z run had low up in the lakes. We need the southern low to slow down or the HP to speed up, combination of both...wishcastingFTL. UK would be a nice winter storm for KY to WV to MA up to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 With the gfs leaving the baha low behind, there's a chance the timing might be better for more cold air to be around. another hp is coming into the midwest after monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You know it's a bad winter when you get a the perfect track w/ a gulf low on hour 210+ of the gfs and it's still rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Overall I like the pattern of the GFS after this weekend. On the surface it's a total heartbreaker. Cold air in front of energy and cold air behind it. Storm rolls over and blows up giving some ZR but most a cold rain with cold air coming right behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Overall I like the pattern of the GFS after this weekend. On the surface it's a total heartbreaker. Cold air in front of energy and cold air behind it. Storm rolls over and blows up giving some ZR but most a cold rain with cold air coming right behind it. I agree, the setup is really good next week. overall i like our chances w/ the stj and overall NH pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Would you look at that...a nice big snow storm @252. Gotta love watching the models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You know it's a bad winter when you get a the perfect track w/ a gulf low on hour 210+ of the gfs and it's still rain. Our luck; we're threading the needle to get rain. **but as Burger said this really is not that bad a setup. Here's precip type at hour 216: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_216_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=216&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150127+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 gfs looks vastly different than the 00z euro around day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 What happened to that epic cold shot the Euro was showing for the first week of Feb, LOL. I thought you couldn't mess up Feb in the SE with a +ENSO/+PDO. Too bad your map stopped at 240, that cold swings east on the mean BTW...big difference from 2/6 to 2/7, but let's split hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Too bad your map stopped at 240, that cold swings east on the mean BTW...big difference from 2/6 to 2/7, but let's split hairs. Ah, my bad, the day 10+ range is colder. Good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Ah, my bad, the day 10+ range is colder. Good to know.I just find it hilarious you link a Jan 6 image but a Jan 7th image zomg day 10+!!! But you're welcome. It is good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I just find it hilarious you link a Jan 6 image but a Jan 7th image zomg day 10+!!! But you're welcome. It is good to know. I didn't say OMG, I just said thanks the day 10+ looks cold, looks great. I was being sincere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I didn't say OMG, I just said thanks the day 10+ looks cold, looks great. I was being sincere.My bad, hard to tell if there is sarcasm on the Internet. Usually when people refer to something good in day 10+ they are being sarcastic and don't believe it will verify. I still like the first week of feb for a storm but I may be one of the few left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 My bad, hard to tell if there is sarcasm on the Internet. Usually when people refer to something good in day 10+ they are being sarcastic and don't believe it will verify. I still like the first week of feb for a storm but I may be one of the few left. This is very close, shift that PV about 50 miles SE, if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 CMC is a cold rain...it did move to the GFS and after the storm it's a nice setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 CMC close to a big hit @220 and then light snow breaks out over NC @234. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 CMC close to a big hit @220 and then light snow breaks out over NC @234. For just NC or close for the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 NC and the upstate with light snow. For just NC or close for the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 NC and the upstate with light snow. I was talking about at 220 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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