mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 We have roughly 6 more weeks of winter in Central/Eastern NC, most of SC, and most of GA. Without showing the April 43 Blizzard of 1543 BC, can somebody give an idea of what they see developing in the atmosphere in the present day that would be supportive of a pattern that would support a winter storm that isn't based solely upon luck? And analogs can go pound sand. They have been useless so far...at least all of the ones that have shown cold and snow.SSW! It saved us once, it can do it again, nm! What happens if you get a SSW in summer, a Waycross heat wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On a bright note, we did have 12 sleet pellets mixed with the rain a week or so ago so, I can at least say there was at least some winter weather this year.... LOL.... Hopefully Feb can bring something to the folks outside the mountains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This winter has sucked, if you want snow. There's no debating that. Can't do it. It has sucked big time. Maybe tomorrow it will snow a whole bunch though!! Falls, my persimmons have all rotted, so they won't work. It has sucked compared to expectations, not necessarily because of a deviation from normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It has sucked compared to expectations, not necessarily because of a deviation from normal. Well, we are below average for snowfall here, so it has not been normal so far. Hopefully, we can get more chances for snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It has sucked compared to expectations, not necessarily because of a deviation from normal.I assure you. We are well below normal in the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It has sucked compared to expectations, not necessarily because of a deviation from normal. I disagree. This is going to be the 5th time in recorded Charlotte weather history where we've gone snowless for November/December/January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I assure you. We are well below normal in the mtns. Asheville averages what? A foot of snow in the winter at the airport? We nearly got half of that on Nov. 1 with half of winter left. It has sucked, but like I said, one good storm will put it over the average for the entire year. Our expectations from preseason forecasts, are the only reason we are disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 BlueRidge, did you mean temps? Snowfall is most definitely below average so far in most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You have been blowing things out of proportion since mid-late December how this winter has sucked & it also looks like you pulled the same exact crap last year. Claiming that the analogs are somehow entirely bogus when in fact the month of February hasn't even started yet isn't a smart move... Hey, if you still believe your analogs you have been posting are going to verify for Feb then I must be wrong. In all seriousness you are obviously much more knowledgable about weather than I am, I am just sucking on sour grapes for how futile things have been over the past few years. Let's see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 BlueRidge, did you mean temps? Snowfall is most definitely below average so far in most places. I actually just went back and looked to compare how CLT has done since Jan 2011, they have essentially doubled us up (19" vs 10"). Now I see why Burger is so optimistic, they have been on a pretty good run, it's just that we (Wake County) suck. I am thinking most other places are at or above climo the past few years as it seems to be just the Wake County folks that are frustrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 We have roughly 6 more weeks of winter in Central/Eastern NC, most of SC, and most of GA. Without showing the April 43 Blizzard of 1543 BC, can somebody give an idea of what they see developing in the atmosphere in the present day that would be supportive of a pattern that would support a winter storm that isn't based solely upon luck? And analogs can go pound sand. They have been useless so far...at least all of the ones that have shown cold and snow. We have about 19 more days of winter in GA. After Feb 15, snow chances go down dramatically and of course the sun angle increases big time. I haven't seen a decent snow after Feb 15 in 22 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Asheville averages what? A foot of snow in the winter at the airport? We nearly got half of that on Nov. 1 with half of winter left. It has sucked, but like I said, one good storm will put it over the average for the entire year. Our expectations from preseason forecasts, are the only reason we are disappointed.Asheville averages 16 I believe. All of us in the mtns are below on snow. Asheville got around 3-4 in November. I picked up almost an inch last night and this morning at my house. That's the first accumulating snow since nov. We need a couple good storms and some flow snow to start catching up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 We have about 19 more days of winter in GA. After Feb 15, snow chances go down dramatically and of course the sun angle increases big time. I haven't seen a decent snow after Feb 15 in 22 years.again, you average more snow in march than Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It has sucked compared to expectations, not necessarily because of a deviation from normal. This is a good reference point. I think many of us, myself included, bought into much of the hype presented by many (even normally very skilled mets) were presenting ideas of how this was going to be a great, cold snowy winter. That coupled with the early, extreme cold in November and snow in SC made these predictions more believable. In reality, the winter weather has not been that bad. The SE ridge has been pretty non-existent. That is a winter killer in the SE. On the other hand the expected -AO and -NAO has been a huge fail. If only snow can make it a good winter for you, I guess it has sucked thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 again, you average more snow in march than Dec. Just barely and mostly because the March 1993 storm skews things a bit. I've seen at least 5 snows in December in the last 20 years but I haven't seen any decent March snows since 1993. Yes, the March 2009 snow missed my area. Also, the ground is colder in December so if it does snow it has an easier time sticking and the sun angle is at it's lowest in December which helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Still some differences between the NAM and GFS. 12z NAM at 66 hours (stronger highs to the north): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=066ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_066_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150127+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model 6z GFS at hour 72: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_072_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150127+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 We have about 19 more days of winter in GA. After Feb 15, snow chances go down dramatically and of course the sun angle increases big time. I haven't seen a decent snow after Feb 15 in 22 years. This is not intended as an attack, but here is my reason as to why I would not throw in the towel for snow IMBY beyond Feb. 15. I average 2" of snow a winter. You are probably close to that as well since we are about an hour apart. In 22 winters in GA (that would be 44" of snowfall according to averages) MBY has received over 15" or 34% of it's annual average after Feb. 15. Those are mainly because of 3 storms of 4", 5", and 6". There were probably also a few other minor ones, but at least 34% (or over 1/3) of my 22 year average fell beyond Feb. 15. One of the many reasons that would not consider throwing in the towel for this winter even down here in GA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Franklin your guys seasonal averages are so tied in with NWS F events. You hit the synoptic events as well, but it's the ups lope nickel and dime events that elevate those climo averages. That being said this year is probably the worst I can ever recall. Just haven't seen the NW flowsustainitself or really just show up like we normally do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Pretty good debate this AM......winter does seem to be on it's last leg down here, although I wouldn't discount an event in February, but like Cold Rain said, there's really no evidence right now that anything is going to look good in the near future. What is really surprising, especially for the the upstate SC and NE Georgia folks is that this is one more winter (most likely) down without a significant ZR. The Georgia posters have talked about this before, but it's just shocking how long it's been since we've had a significant freezing rain event. Those things were commonplace......even if it didn't snow, there was always a good chance of a nice CAD ZR event here, but I can't remember the last one it's been so long. Of course for us severe weather lovers, we can always count on the the wedge to keep any good storms from rolling in this spring..probably can take that to the bank. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 For the midlands of SC, this threat on Superbowl Weekend has looked quite bleak for a while on the operational runs. Some of the ensemble suites/means have been okay. We are finally seeing that break down around these parts though. Guidance is warmer and trying to track the Low pressure (if it develops) inland which is something none of us really want to see other than crossing land over Florida, although for some areas in NE GA, NW SC, NW NC, it can work out to an extent. After the first threat, there looks to be another piece of energy coming out that will give yet another Winter weather threat to some of us. The ensembles have looked okay with this, along with a few operational runs, though some signs are starting to show up about this Low (if it forms) also tracking inland through areas of SC/GA depending on which run you look at. 12z needs to show some big changes with both of these events before I become too excited again. Especially for the Midlands of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Franklin your guys seasonal averages are so tied in with NWS F events. You hit the synoptic events as well, but it's the ups lope nickel and dime events that elevate those climo averages. That being said this year is probably the worst I can ever recall. Just haven't seen the NW flowsustainitself or really just show up like we normally do.Yeah our best month for snow was Halloween weekend. With this mornings accumulation we are at 16.5 inches for my area. This is poor but 3 years ago was worst even last year we did not make climo in snowfall. With that being said the mountains are never out of it until May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Missing something? Look in banter. This is a pinned model thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Let's talk what changes need to occur for us to score on Monday, when you look at past over-running events, we really need the PV drop a little more SE and of course have more of the Baja low in Cali to come out. Impossible, no, but it sure feels like it. It seems like all winter the northern energy has wanted to dig more and more, let's hope that continues. And yes, I signed up for WB again, I felt alone and afraid without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Totally different look from the GFS today. Energy dropping into the Dakotas about to phase with weak energy around Nebraska and Texas. Don't think it'll do the job but changes are afoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Totally different look from the GFS today. Energy dropping into the Dakotas about to phase with weak energy around Nebraska and Texas. Don't think it'll do the job but changes are afoot. That sounds like a massive cutter about to happen...a solution that is being shown with regularity now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The only true trend in the GFS has been a much stronger high in southern Canada . It's clear on the run as well. Last week it was showing massive highs 1058+ , then it backed down to as low as 1038 and now we are back up to 1051 on the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Cold rain in coming at 135 with 2m temps in the 30s Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 That sounds like a massive cutter about to happen...a solution that is being shown with regularity now. It is a cutter...but not a massive lakes cutter. If you look at 5h the difference is almost night and day you have a 50/50 low (well almost one anyways) and the PV is in better position. This should help setup colder air after this storm....but I want to see in future runs if it keeps pushing the PV and 50/50 low better. Also on this run our energy out west is less organized. Don't think the storm is going to happen but I like the changes the GFS is making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Well it was not a cutter. The southern low basically gave into the Ohio valley low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 995 low off the NE...another big blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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