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Winter medium range model pbp I


GaWx

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Yes, but no good news, unless you like rain! Feb 2 storm is all rain for everybody , cuts through Ohio valley, the 5th / 6th storm is all rain, except for Boone at onset, looks extremely cold after the latter storm. The 5/6 th storm has an awesome look, comes roaring out of the gulf, through S Ga, up the Carolina coasts, inland, per this run, no cold air, as per usual!

I don't know what you guys are stressing about. This is a great pattern and the models are likely out to lunch here. They're not nearly progressive enough with the southern stream and they are too fast with the highs scooting out. Still a huge winter storm signal in the Deep South and southeast. Don't worry.

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If we could get some damn blocking guys. With all the rain we've had this winter it would have been above normal snowfall if we could just get the cold air feed. But hey, we didn't get our first good snow imby til 2/12 last year so there's still time guy's. Keep your heads up springs right around the corner. Im personally so disappointed im ready for spring tired of bein couped up with nothing to track. Much rather be hiking, camping, something lol

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I don't know what you guys are stressing about. This is a great pattern and the models are likely out to lunch here. They're not nearly progressive enough with the southern stream and they are too fast with the highs scooting out. Still a huge winter storm signal in the Deep South and southeast. Don't worry.

 

You can see on the Euro and GFS they both almost pop something on Friday. I've said it all winter, I do worry about the fact that all winter we've had the same luck so you tend to bet the streak but I'm giving it until Thursday and after that if we can get some cold in if nothing else something can always pop up. 

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I don't know what you guys are stressing about. This is a great pattern and the models are likely out to lunch here. They're not nearly progressive enough with the southern stream and they are too fast with the highs scooting out. Still a huge winter storm signal in the Deep South and southeast. Don't worry.

Are you serious or still asleep, sleep posting!

The storms are there, but the cold is not going to just materialize! That 5/6 th storm wod crush the Carolinas, if there was cold! Dynamic cooling FTW

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I don't know what you guys are stressing about. This is a great pattern and the models are likely out to lunch here. They're not nearly progressive enough with the southern stream and they are too fast with the highs scooting out. Still a huge winter storm signal in the Deep South and southeast. Don't worry.

Your right, we've got prime climotology for snow ahead of us.

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I don't know what you guys are stressing about. This is a great pattern and the models are likely out to lunch here. They're not nearly progressive enough with the southern stream and they are too fast with the highs scooting out. Still a huge winter storm signal in the Deep South and southeast. Don't worry.

lol.. good stuff.
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You can see on the Euro and GFS they both almost pop something on Friday. I've said it all winter, I do worry about the fact that all winter we've had the same luck so you tend to bet the streak but I'm giving it until Thursday and after that if we can get some cold in if nothing else something can always pop up.

I haven't looked at the models yet, but my hope is that something will pop up out of nowhere during one of these transient cold shots.

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But seriously guys i know this isent a carbon copy but we got six more weeks lets be realistic if you want ur epic winter you were promised....aint happening, but one good storm would make all the difference i know ur probley saying stfu south mtn but were seriously just starting prime climotology for snow....just sayin....

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But seriously guys i know this isent a carbon copy but we got six more weeks lets be realistic if you want ur epic winter you were promised....aint happening, but one good storm would make all the difference i know ur probley saying stfu south mtn but were seriously just starting prime climotology for snow....just sayin....

No, you're right. At this point, expectations are so beaten down, probably most folks would be happy with a minor event or two. If we got a biggie, that would be awesome!

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I don't know what you guys are stressing about. This is a great pattern and the models are likely out to lunch here. They're not nearly progressive enough with the southern stream and they are too fast with the highs scooting out. Still a huge winter storm signal in the Deep South and southeast. Don't worry.

 

LOL, I am not sure most people got your sarcasm, well I guess Franklin did.  It's a shame, this is probably the closet thing to a winter storm pattern we have had all winter and it's not even close to producing a winter storm, LOL.  I guess the good news is someone in the central/NE US will get a winter storm on Mon/Tues, we get to watch who get's screwed from that.

I am fairly we sure we don't want the Bermuda high there, LOL.

post-2311-0-23809000-1422363153_thumb.pn

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February hasn't started yet so....

 

Top 5 +AO El Nino Februarys...

 

 

 

 

Which is what the LR models are spitting out the first 10 days of Feb.  Looks like we got a small event in Feb 73, but the other 4 winters were skunks in Feb/Mar and 3 of the winters were complete skunks.  Kind of cements what I am saying.  Also, look at that scale, we are -0.4 for the anomaly, that's essentially neutral for temps.

 

Looking more at 59, we got all our snow that winter in Dec.  For 73 we got most of it in January.  The other 3 winters sucked.

 

#Winter2015FTL

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Which is what the LR models are spitting out the first 10 days of Feb.  Looks like we got a small event in Feb 73, but the other 4 winters were skunks in Feb/Mar and 3 of the winters were complete skunks.  Kind of cements what I am saying.  Also, look at that scale, we are -0.4 for the anomaly, that's essentially neutral for temps.

 

Looking more at 59, we got all our snow that winter in Dec.  For 73 we got most of it in January.  The other 3 winters sucked.

 

#Winter2015FTL

 

You were saying this Jan 20th of last year. 

 

 

 

So your becoming a mute then, because it ain't snowing here again, and I am not talking about the dusting we may get tomorrow, I am talking 3"+. Going to post some RDU futility numbers later today, it's amazingly bad, all time lows across the board going back 120 years. For whatever reason our snow climate is like that of Atlanta's, actually probably worse than Atlanta's.

Just learn to accept it, it doesn't snow here, only in NoVA and Boston, you will be happier like me.

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Looked at the models for the Super Bowl storm, and the good news is, most of them have some type of -NAO. A few runs Miller B the storm up north of us, so Webber is right. The pattern supports Miller Bs.

Looks to me like we go cold/dry, warm/rain, cold/dry, warm/rain. Back to needing perfect timing, which is possible....unless the models are totally wrong.

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You can see on the Euro and GFS they both almost pop something on Friday. I've said it all winter, I do worry about the fact that all winter we've had the same luck so you tend to bet the streak but I'm giving it until Thursday and after that if we can get some cold in if nothing else something can always pop up. 

 

I guess that is what people are doing now, betting the streak. But we still have some time and there is still a chance of us getting some snow. I didn't expect the counties just to the north of me to get what they did overnight. They actually got some measurable snow out of something that was just supposed to be a dusting at best. I wish people would just stop being so negative just because we have not had snow yet. That is what it is all based on. It is still winter, and if we don't get any snow then we just move onto spring and life goes on. The negativity and whining is old.

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I guess that is what people are doing now, betting the streak. But we still have some time and there is still a chance of us getting some snow. I didn't expect the counties just to the north of me to get what they did overnight. They actually got some measurable snow out of something that was just supposed to be a dusting at best. I wish people would just stop being so negative just because we have not had snow yet. That is what it is all based on. It is still winter, and if we don't get any snow then we just move onto spring and life goes on. The negativity and whining is old.

 

Amen!

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I guess that is what people are doing now, betting the streak. But we still have some time and there is still a chance of us getting some snow. I didn't expect the counties just to the north of me to get what they did overnight. They actually got some measurable snow out of something that was just supposed to be a dusting at best. I wish people would just stop being so negative just because we have not had snow yet. That is what it is all based on. It is still winter, and if we don't get any snow then we just move onto spring and life goes on. The negativity and whining is old.

Until you can explain how and why the upcoming pattern is going to support a greater chance of snow than what we've seen all winter long, stop whining about negativity. Blindingly saying, "Yay, it can snow at anytime" is just weenie speak. Sure something can pop up. But being realistic about how the winter has unfolded and how the pattern is likely to unfold isn't being negative. Why don't you show why you think the pattern is going to support greater chances of snow than what we've seen? Hoping for snow does not make it snow. And basing your position on hope is just as silly as saying it's never going to snow again.

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We have roughly 6 more weeks of winter in Central/Eastern NC, most of SC, and most of GA. Without showing the April 43 Blizzard of 1543 BC, can somebody give an idea of what they see developing in the atmosphere in the present day that would be supportive of a pattern that would support a winter storm that isn't based solely upon luck? And analogs can go pound sand. They have been useless so far...at least all of the ones that have shown cold and snow.

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