Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yes, but no good news, unless you like rain! Feb 2 storm is all rain for everybody , cuts through Ohio valley, the 5th / 6th storm is all rain, except for Boone at onset, looks extremely cold after the latter storm. The 5/6 th storm has an awesome look, comes roaring out of the gulf, through S Ga, up the Carolina coasts, inland, per this run, no cold air, as per usual! I don't know what you guys are stressing about. This is a great pattern and the models are likely out to lunch here. They're not nearly progressive enough with the southern stream and they are too fast with the highs scooting out. Still a huge winter storm signal in the Deep South and southeast. Don't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If we could get some damn blocking guys. With all the rain we've had this winter it would have been above normal snowfall if we could just get the cold air feed. But hey, we didn't get our first good snow imby til 2/12 last year so there's still time guy's. Keep your heads up springs right around the corner. Im personally so disappointed im ready for spring tired of bein couped up with nothing to track. Much rather be hiking, camping, something lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I don't know what you guys are stressing about. This is a great pattern and the models are likely out to lunch here. They're not nearly progressive enough with the southern stream and they are too fast with the highs scooting out. Still a huge winter storm signal in the Deep South and southeast. Don't worry. You can see on the Euro and GFS they both almost pop something on Friday. I've said it all winter, I do worry about the fact that all winter we've had the same luck so you tend to bet the streak but I'm giving it until Thursday and after that if we can get some cold in if nothing else something can always pop up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I don't know what you guys are stressing about. This is a great pattern and the models are likely out to lunch here. They're not nearly progressive enough with the southern stream and they are too fast with the highs scooting out. Still a huge winter storm signal in the Deep South and southeast. Don't worry.Are you serious or still asleep, sleep posting! The storms are there, but the cold is not going to just materialize! That 5/6 th storm wod crush the Carolinas, if there was cold! Dynamic cooling FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I don't know what you guys are stressing about. This is a great pattern and the models are likely out to lunch here. They're not nearly progressive enough with the southern stream and they are too fast with the highs scooting out. Still a huge winter storm signal in the Deep South and southeast. Don't worry. Your right, we've got prime climotology for snow ahead of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 How do you guys not recognize when CR is being sarcastic? I see what you did there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I don't know what you guys are stressing about. This is a great pattern and the models are likely out to lunch here. They're not nearly progressive enough with the southern stream and they are too fast with the highs scooting out. Still a huge winter storm signal in the Deep South and southeast. Don't worry.lol.. good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Thought he sounded too optimistic lmao When CR gets excited you know somthins up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You can see on the Euro and GFS they both almost pop something on Friday. I've said it all winter, I do worry about the fact that all winter we've had the same luck so you tend to bet the streak but I'm giving it until Thursday and after that if we can get some cold in if nothing else something can always pop up. I haven't looked at the models yet, but my hope is that something will pop up out of nowhere during one of these transient cold shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I haven't looked at the models yet, but my hope is that something will pop up out of nowhere during one of these transient cold shots.we need something to come directly behind a cutter. Our only shot even in the mtns.#Jshetley winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Thought he sounded too optimistic lmao When CR gets excited you know somthins up. I just want some blocking. Just a week's worth, or maybe 10 days. Why is that so hard? I can't wait to get into work and look at the telecon progs. Ug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 we need something to come directly behind a cutter. Our only shot even in the mtns.#Jshetley winter. I guess it could, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 But seriously guys i know this isent a carbon copy but we got six more weeks lets be realistic if you want ur epic winter you were promised....aint happening, but one good storm would make all the difference i know ur probley saying stfu south mtn but were seriously just starting prime climotology for snow....just sayin.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 But seriously guys i know this isent a carbon copy but we got six more weeks lets be realistic if you want ur epic winter you were promised....aint happening, but one good storm would make all the difference i know ur probley saying stfu south mtn but were seriously just starting prime climotology for snow....just sayin.... No, you're right. At this point, expectations are so beaten down, probably most folks would be happy with a minor event or two. If we got a biggie, that would be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I haven't looked at the models yet, but my hope is that something will pop up out of nowhere during one of these transient cold shots. Perfect example, The Blizzard we are watching up north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If you're into straw grasping the NAM has a 1036 high over the lakes @84 and the energy out west looks further east before it's about to cutoff than most models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 From the NE forum......this after their almost 20" of course...... "Yeah, Euro not so hawt looking this AM. She beer goggled us into banging her till the AM. Bad idea. Now I'm left with blue ballz wondering what might have been." Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I don't know what you guys are stressing about. This is a great pattern and the models are likely out to lunch here. They're not nearly progressive enough with the southern stream and they are too fast with the highs scooting out. Still a huge winter storm signal in the Deep South and southeast. Don't worry. LOL, I am not sure most people got your sarcasm, well I guess Franklin did. It's a shame, this is probably the closet thing to a winter storm pattern we have had all winter and it's not even close to producing a winter storm, LOL. I guess the good news is someone in the central/NE US will get a winter storm on Mon/Tues, we get to watch who get's screwed from that. I am fairly we sure we don't want the Bermuda high there, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 What happened to that epic cold shot the Euro was showing for the first week of Feb, LOL. I thought you couldn't mess up Feb in the SE with a +ENSO/+PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The eps is still showing a sto in the 2nd-4th period fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 What happened to that epic cold shot the Euro was showing for the first week of Feb, LOL. I thought you couldn't mess up Feb in the SE with a +ENSO/+PDO. February hasn't started yet so.... Top 5 +AO El Nino Februarys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 February hasn't started yet so.... Top 5 +AO El Nino Februarys... Which is what the LR models are spitting out the first 10 days of Feb. Looks like we got a small event in Feb 73, but the other 4 winters were skunks in Feb/Mar and 3 of the winters were complete skunks. Kind of cements what I am saying. Also, look at that scale, we are -0.4 for the anomaly, that's essentially neutral for temps. Looking more at 59, we got all our snow that winter in Dec. For 73 we got most of it in January. The other 3 winters sucked. #Winter2015FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Which is what the LR models are spitting out the first 10 days of Feb. Looks like we got a small event in Feb 73, but the other 4 winters were skunks in Feb/Mar and 3 of the winters were complete skunks. Kind of cements what I am saying. Also, look at that scale, we are -0.4 for the anomaly, that's essentially neutral for temps. Looking more at 59, we got all our snow that winter in Dec. For 73 we got most of it in January. The other 3 winters sucked. #Winter2015FTL You were saying this Jan 20th of last year. So your becoming a mute then, because it ain't snowing here again, and I am not talking about the dusting we may get tomorrow, I am talking 3"+. Going to post some RDU futility numbers later today, it's amazingly bad, all time lows across the board going back 120 years. For whatever reason our snow climate is like that of Atlanta's, actually probably worse than Atlanta's.Just learn to accept it, it doesn't snow here, only in NoVA and Boston, you will be happier like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Looked at the models for the Super Bowl storm, and the good news is, most of them have some type of -NAO. A few runs Miller B the storm up north of us, so Webber is right. The pattern supports Miller Bs. Looks to me like we go cold/dry, warm/rain, cold/dry, warm/rain. Back to needing perfect timing, which is possible....unless the models are totally wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You can see on the Euro and GFS they both almost pop something on Friday. I've said it all winter, I do worry about the fact that all winter we've had the same luck so you tend to bet the streak but I'm giving it until Thursday and after that if we can get some cold in if nothing else something can always pop up. I guess that is what people are doing now, betting the streak. But we still have some time and there is still a chance of us getting some snow. I didn't expect the counties just to the north of me to get what they did overnight. They actually got some measurable snow out of something that was just supposed to be a dusting at best. I wish people would just stop being so negative just because we have not had snow yet. That is what it is all based on. It is still winter, and if we don't get any snow then we just move onto spring and life goes on. The negativity and whining is old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I guess that is what people are doing now, betting the streak. But we still have some time and there is still a chance of us getting some snow. I didn't expect the counties just to the north of me to get what they did overnight. They actually got some measurable snow out of something that was just supposed to be a dusting at best. I wish people would just stop being so negative just because we have not had snow yet. That is what it is all based on. It is still winter, and if we don't get any snow then we just move onto spring and life goes on. The negativity and whining is old. Amen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I guess that is what people are doing now, betting the streak. But we still have some time and there is still a chance of us getting some snow. I didn't expect the counties just to the north of me to get what they did overnight. They actually got some measurable snow out of something that was just supposed to be a dusting at best. I wish people would just stop being so negative just because we have not had snow yet. That is what it is all based on. It is still winter, and if we don't get any snow then we just move onto spring and life goes on. The negativity and whining is old. Until you can explain how and why the upcoming pattern is going to support a greater chance of snow than what we've seen all winter long, stop whining about negativity. Blindingly saying, "Yay, it can snow at anytime" is just weenie speak. Sure something can pop up. But being realistic about how the winter has unfolded and how the pattern is likely to unfold isn't being negative. Why don't you show why you think the pattern is going to support greater chances of snow than what we've seen? Hoping for snow does not make it snow. And basing your position on hope is just as silly as saying it's never going to snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 We have roughly 6 more weeks of winter in Central/Eastern NC, most of SC, and most of GA. Without showing the April 43 Blizzard of 1543 BC, can somebody give an idea of what they see developing in the atmosphere in the present day that would be supportive of a pattern that would support a winter storm that isn't based solely upon luck? And analogs can go pound sand. They have been useless so far...at least all of the ones that have shown cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 CR, we need teleconnections with pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 CR, we need teleconnections with pics! 45 min.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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