rduwx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GFS took a step but still not gonna cut it. 1040 high in the Dakotas....but of course it has now almost turned into a lakes cutter lol. Still a long way to go on this one folks. I think Brandon has the right thinking..not over yet. The fact that GFS is spitting out another solution but starting to see a strong high drop is probably a good sign. I agree burger...I saw the big canadian high dropping down and thought we might actually have something. I was surprised to see it cut TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GFS took a step but still not gonna cut it. 1040 high in the Dakotas....but of course it has now almost turned into a lakes cutter lol. Still a long way to go on this one folks. I think Brandon has the right thinking..not over yet. The fact that GFS is spitting out another solution but starting to see a strong high drop is probably a good sign. Yeah not sure I see how the GFS drives that low up into the confluence set up by the 50/50 but it's goofus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Something to watch for is if our southwest energy keeps getting weaker in future runs. It's phasing with the energy dropping out of the north west. If that energy doesn't phase it could dig and kick out giving us a good storm. Just something to possibly watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The northern stream is just sooooo dominant. I just want to see ZERO L's in the northern tier states for just one friggin' day this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The next storm after that storm, really has my attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Overall the GFS also just looks plain colder after the storm is passing. Much better look cold wise. GFS might be starting to see some changes. PV is in a much better position and stronger this run. Model madness at it's best here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 NE gets hit with another mega bomb on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Looks like it's going to destroy Boston. Of course. I need to move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Looks like it's going to destroy Boston. Of course. I need to move. Just remember that the model we're dealing with has no snow in NYC from 00z - 48 hours. I think we took another step. I won't close the book until Thursday or Friday. Hopefully the Euro doesn't hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Overall the GFS also just looks plain colder after the storm is passing. Much better look cold wise. GFS might be starting to see some changes. PV is in a much better position and stronger this run. Model madness at it's best here.yeah with the way the models have been swinging from run to run the calls for cancelling winter are getting old in my opinion. Let's just see were things go and evolve over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Has anyone seen the cmc? My maps are loading very slow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The next storm after that storm, really has my attention First week of Feb, 4th-6thish has my attention. Lots of members on the ensembles showing some wild solutions for the SE during that time frame. Means don't look bad for the members to be as all over the place as they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 First week of Feb, 4th-6thish has my attention. Lots of members on the ensembles showing some wild solutions for the SE during that time frame. Means don't look bad for the members to be as all over the place as they are. I've been keeping an eye out on that time frame as well. The 0z gfs had a storm but too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Its really the same system, the models are just splitting it into two pieces next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Finally got some of my cmc maps to load and it was oh so close to a big hit. It's still cuts but over the eastern part of NC. Temps are warm for most of NC but there is a wedge in NW NC that would be ice. This run was close to being good storm. Lots of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 00z GEFS is very warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Finally got some of my cmc maps to load and it was oh so close to a big hit. It's still cuts but over the eastern part of NC. Temps are warm for most of NC but there is a wedge in NW NC that would be ice. This run was close to being good storm. Lots of precip. Yeah, looks like some decent icing just N/NW of GSO. Close to a nice snowstorm, but not quite. A bit of an improvement over the 12z run, IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 00z GEFS is very warm Looks like a better look than the 12z, though. No GL low from what I can tell. It's about as warm, but close enough for the upper SE to keep interest. Of course, then we've got this from the 00z UKMET... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Through 120, the HP in the northeast is stronger. 1033 in NY state as opposed to 1028 in WV on the 12z. Edit: Definitely colder in the CAD areas this go round... Edit 2: Aaaaaand, here she comes NORTH! HP running like a scalded dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Apps Runner on the 00z Euro. Wonderful. EDIT: Well, west of the Apps, really. It seemingly matches up with the UKMET. The King has been slain. First, a huge bust in the NE with biblical snowfall totals only 24 hours prior to the storm. Many of those areas will be lucky to see 6". Then it flips and flops in the mid to long range like no tomorrow (not that it's alone in that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 gonna be a clipper...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 00z GFS and EURO are VERY, VERY similar. Not saying it's time to close the book on this one, but...it's time to close the book on this one. Now let's get overly excited about the Feb 3-6 timeframe so we can be let down again this time next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 00z GFS and EURO are VERY, VERY similar. Not saying it's time to close the book on this one, but...it's time to close the book on this one. Now let's get overly excited about the Feb 3-6 timeframe so we can be let down again this time next week! We just need, like we've always needed, that high to walk our storm all the way to the coast. It has occurred on a couple model runs and some ensemble members but it's a real long shot. I'm sure the pattern will flip in March just in time to give us a cold spring like it seems to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 We just need, like we've always needed, that high to walk our storm all the way to the coast. It has occurred on a couple model runs and some ensemble members but it's a real long shot. I'm sure the pattern will flip in March just in time to give us a cold spring like it seems to do. Eh, with the right setup in March, we can make magic happen, IMHO. Early March is a pretty good climo period for us, really. I'd rather not have to, but you gotta do what you gotta do. March climo goes to hell quickly as you go south and east of our areas, though, I have noticed. For our area, three out of the last six Marches have produced (2009, 2010, & 2014) >2" of snowfall. I think the only March where it did not snow at all was in 2012. Of course, by then you're battling sun angle, BL temps, etc., which complicates things and the snow that does fall won't stick around very long. We've still got the entire month of Fab Feb ahead of us, too. ...Oh, God, I sound pathetic... but I really don't think we'll strike out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Finally a model consensus , cold rain for everybody ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Did the 6z GFS finish running this morning? I'm stuck at hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Did the 6z GFS finish running this morning? I'm stuck at hour 72. No, HW issues at NCEP. Probably good, even I am surprised at the model consensus for this event tracking way NW of us. Par for the course these days. Atleast it was a quick death. Maybe NY to BOS can get more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Did the 6z GFS finish running this morning? I'm stuck at hour 72.Yes, but no good news, unless you like rain! Feb 2 storm is all rain for everybody , cuts through Ohio valley, the 5th / 6th storm is all rain, except for Boone at onset, looks extremely cold after the latter storm. The 5/6 th storm has an awesome look, comes roaring out of the gulf, through S Ga, up the Carolina coasts, inland, per this run, no cold air, as per usual! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yes, but no good news, unless you like rain! Feb 2 storm is all rain for everybody , cuts through Ohio valley, the 5th / 6th storm is all rain, except for Boone at onset, looks extremely cold after the latter storm. The 5/6 th storm has an awesome look, comes roaring out of the gulf, through S Ga, up the Carolina coasts, inland, per this run, no cold air, as per usual! I suppose the cold LR look is better than nothing. "If" that verified we could get another chance near mid month. Time is slipping away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 After the 6th, the storm roars up the coast and crushes NYC -Bos again, with a monster blizzard! So we have that to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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