Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The eps is meh the mean is skewed by a massive boardwide blizzard by one member How does the overall pattern look in the LR? Like a dumpster fire or an atom bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 What happened to the pattern being advertised a few days for this time period....been the theme all winter, people getting pumped up lecturing you about how great things look and time after time it fails, LOL. That's not a good pattern? Oh please... the main features are still there for an overrunning event/Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That's not a good pattern? Oh please... the main features are still there for an overrunning event/Miller B. Agreed, but it's trending wrong direction, point was it looks nothing like day 10 model prog. Hearing the EPS doesn't support a winter storm, shocking. I am curious to see what would happen if the whole low in Cali came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Agreed, but it's trending wrong direction, point was it looks nothing like day 10 model prog. Hearing the EPS doesn't support a winter storm, shocking. I am curious to see what would happen if the whole low in Cali came out. The recent shifts haven't really been detrimental, if @ all in a broad sense, and I really don't see much of anything to complain about in the general pattern for this overrunning set-up, specifics are virtually meaningless for now & getting caught up into the precise output of the guidance at this stage is a huge mistake... I would actually argue the trend hasn't been too detrimental here, and our main issue has been over the energy in the subtropical jet, and as the Euro ensembles especially are finally starting to rid themselves of the smeared, HLB look over the far north Pacific & have instead w/ better handling of upstream disturbances over Asia, have begun to transition to a far more transient/progressive regime. This is allowing our system to gain a bit more latitude & remain encapsulated within the westerly streamflow. Hence, the models have finally started to bring out this southern branch piece from the southwestern US/Baja and over the last few days, and wintry solutions are popping (once again) generally along & north of the I-40/64 corridors from the south-central Plains to the Carolinas & Virginia. Of course the progressive pattern comes at a price w/ the chunk of the PV remaining locked further north & east into eastern Canada, however, at least this gives us a fighting chance at something, if the extremely amplified regime held firm as was forecasted (a few days ago for this specific event) we may have very well observed another retrograding piece of energy in the southwestern US that became absorbed into the mean Gulf of Alaskan gyre... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The recent shifts haven't really been detrimental, if @ all in a broad sense, and I really don't see much of anything to complain about in the general pattern for this overrunning set-up, specifics are virtually meaningless for now & getting caught up into the precise output of the guidance at this stage is a huge mistake... I would actually argue the trend hasn't been too detrimental here, and our main issue has been over the energy in the subtropical jet, and as the Euro ensembles especially are finally starting to rid themselves of the smeared, HLB look over the far north Pacific & have instead w/ better handling of upstream disturbances over Asia, have begun to transition to a far more transient/progressive regime. This is allowing our system to gain a bit more latitude & remain encapsulated within the westerly streamflow. Hence, the models have finally started to bring out this southern branch piece from the southwestern US/Baja and over the last few days, and wintry solutions are popping (once again) generally along & north of the I-40/64 corridors from the south-central Plains to the Carolinas & Virginia. Of course the progressive pattern comes at a price w/ the chunk of the PV remaining locked further north & east into eastern Canada, however, at least this gives us a fighting chance at something, if the extremely amplified regime held firm as was forecasted (a few days ago for this specific event) we may have very well observed another retrograding piece of energy in the southwestern US that became absorbed into the mean Gulf of Alaskan gyre... Essentially for this specific storm (if the amplified regime held longer something would have likely appeared thereafter, but that's an entirely different & rightfully unrelated matter) it's a trade off between having the pattern progressive enough to allow the energy in the southwestern US to kick out from underneath the PNA ridge & seeing enough amplification to drive cold air into the southeast, and quite frankly, I'll admit even in this nice synoptic setup, it's a delicate balance, and we likely won't know the sensible response to this pattern w/ confidence for about another 3-4 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Essentially for this specific storm (if the amplified regime held longer something would have likely appeared thereafter, but that's an entirely different & rightfully unrelated matter) it's a trade off between having the pattern progressive enough to allow the energy in the southwestern US to kick out from underneath the PNA ridge & seeing enough amplification to drive cold air into the southeast, and quite frankly, I'll admit even in this nice synoptic setup, it's a delicate balance, and we likely won't know the sensible response to this pattern w/ confidence for about another 3-4 days... Usually with no blocking we are having to time things like this which is why it's so tough, so we need a little luck. If the PV gets much further north we will be to warm, if the -EPO holds on and it's razor thin, we could have seen stronger HP trying to build in as we got closer, but still up in the air and the EPS literally flips the EPO between day 6-7. I still want to see a model run with the whole low coming out and the PV in SE Quebec with a strong -EPO. That's not much to ask for...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The thing I'm running into with this setup is just the fact that we've seen it most of this winter on the models and it has ended the same way pretty much every single time. It's hard to bet against the streak. I think we still hold out until Thursday but I just don't have much faith. On a positive note the EPS didn't look terrible probably a couple of good member in that one. Agreed X10000000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The 18z NAM does have a stronger high coming down out of Alaska at 84 hours than the 12z GFS at 90. 18z NAM at 84(1048): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150126+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model 12z GFS at 90(1036): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=090ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_090_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150126+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Back to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 My post was not meant to say he is the only met who blew it this year but merely some have determined he is the reason we should give up (and he could now end up being correct). Every met and long range prognosticator (with 1-2 exceptions) has busted horribly for our area of the country so he is certainly not by himself. Fir the record, IMO he will likely be right by the odds and the winter will end just like it has been so far but nobody should give up or bet on one person's opinion Fair enough. Agreed. We could easily make up for the entire winter with one storm in late feb or march. So we are still a LONG way from being done. But we've all seen the trends thus far, and they don't appear much better headed into Feb. So plant your lawn in the meantime and if you are lucky, it will be watered by an 8" snow around March 1st! Sorry Burnsie. Posted this right before you did. Feel free to relocate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Day 10 coastal on the EPS...I am in... With the 6-8" day 6-7 overrunning event and the 9-10" from the day 10 coastal what could help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The 12z EPS mean is the best yet. GSO is over 3.25" now (up from 2" last night). I'd say about half the members are hits with a few big hitters. That being said, they're keying on different time frames. Some of the members are showing the D6 storm while some of the members are showing a big hit at D9. The D9 potential has more mean snowfall. I would look at other cities, but I'm on mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The 12z EPS mean is the best yet. GSO is over 3.25" now (up from 2" last night). I'd say about half the members are hits with a few big hitters. That being said, they're keying on different time frames. Some of the members are showing the D6 storm while some of the members are showing a big hit at D9. The D9 potential has more mean snowfall. I would look at other cities, but I'm on mobile. Repeat of 2/12 last winter. Overrunning event a couple of days before the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Repeat of 2/12 last winter. Overrunning event a couple of days before the coastal. #FaithInTheFlakes. BTW, the 18z NAM shows about 30-40" for NYC while the 18z RGEM shows like 5". Just LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well the NWS has the mtns. for sunday and monday a chance of snow so they must be seeing something for a least a chance of a snowstorm anyway, HOPEFULLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I've liked this setup since the middle of last week. It's pretty much the only one I've seen this year that has had real potential. It's got all the required elements for an overrunning snow to ice situation(preceeding cold front, layered cold air over the northeast w/ arctic hp over the plains, 50/50 low, stj activity... It would be a mistake to write it off right now. To me the euro doesn't make a lot of sense at the sfc or 500mb out west. The models are having a difficult time with that. The evolution of that will change several times b/n now and next monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase22 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I've liked this setup since the middle of last week. It's pretty much the only one I've seen this year that has had real potential. It's got all the required elements for an overrunning snow to ice situation(preceeding cold front, layered cold air over the northeast w/ arctic hp over the plains, 50/50 low, stj activity... It would be a mistake to write it off right now. To me the euro doesn't make a lot of sense at the sfc or 500mb out west. The models are having a difficult time with that. The evolution of that will change several times b/n now and next monday. Thanks, Brandon. Seemed like we needed a voice of reason today. It's our best setup out of the crap setups so far this winter, so we might as well treat it as a potential threat without living and dying by every single model run from every single model. It'll be interesting to see how today's monster storm and the midweek clipper plays into the amount of cold air available up north come Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm only out to 102 on the GFS, but the high looks a little stronger up in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Repeat of 2/12 last winter. Overrunning event a couple of days before the coastal. History shows Feb 10-25th always seems to be a good shot at something. Maybe that will be the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Absolute torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 much warmer, all liquid snow. awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Sent from my iPhone That's a nice look right there IMO. Nice first post!! Eh, I'm torn on this storm....Big picture I like the set up still....active STJ, some High pressure coming in from the north, pseudo Atlantic blocking (east based perhaps) digging western shortwaves, sinking PV near Hudson Bay, overall it's still a good look. With that said, timing has to work just right and the ridge has to be nice and tall. I doubt it all comes together JUST like it needs too. Man I miss solid -NAOs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Cold Rain is on the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 No use worrying over specifics. You've got a miller A in the Gulf, a 50/50 and an arctic high in the plains. Lets take our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The hurricane hunters are flying into the blizzard. Hopefully they will drop some drop eson es and feed info into models. The info will be pumped into the 0z models. Need them up over the north pacific for our super Sunday deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Cold Rain is on the 18z gfs.Cold rain is omnipresent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 00z GFS could get interesting. Big highs dropping out of Canada...energy in the west is weaker and some energy in the northwest is dropping down. Let's see where she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Those HPs are turning the jets on...really scooting out of position really quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GFS took a step but still not gonna cut it. 1040 high in the Dakotas....but of course it has now almost turned into a lakes cutter lol. Still a long way to go on this one folks. I think Brandon has the right thinking..not over yet. The fact that GFS is spitting out another solution but starting to see a strong high drop is probably a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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