FallsLake Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The sad thing about the 18z GFS is that it can't get any better than what it shows. If this was showing at day 3 or 4 I would be jumping for joy. but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 1/23/2015 is the 75th anniversary of one of the greatest SE snowstorms on record, the 1/23/1940 snowstorm. Wouldn't that be something, especially with 1939-40 being a top analog, if the 18Z GFS were to verify? It was huge at places like GSO, ATL, and BHM and even gave a couple of inches down as far as MCN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 18z GFS Ensemble Mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The sad thing about the 18z GFS is that it can't get any better than what it shows. If this was showing at day 3 or 4 I would be jumping for joy. but.... I think it can trend better...it's a little warm, I think if the low reaches 1000mb earlier than 204 (about the end of the event) and it's a tad closer to the coast and wraps up juuuust a little bit more, it would jackpot a lot of central NC and SC. Right now it's a little suppressed but ANY of us would take that look right now. Basically I'm saying instead of a 5" event for Raleigh it can trend to 12"+ but then with wrapped up events we have issues of it exiting too fast so on the other hand you're right, most of us would cash out now and go to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Have y'all heard the news?? There is a storm possible next week, and maybe we can finally get the pattern to get its head on straight. New video is up and running. Check it out if you don't mind, and maybe like my page as well. Thanks! -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Tells me that there is going to be some wild swings on the the models shown for the next few days. lol With all due respect, that's not exactly a Nostradamus level prediction given the model performance over the past few months. What happened to the time, when one model, often the Euro, would lock onto an event several days out and the others would gradually come into agreement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 lol With all due respect, that's not exactly a Nostradamus level prediction given the model performance over the past few months. What happened to the time, when one model, often the Euro, would lock onto an event several days out and the others would gradually come into agreement? I miss those days BUT........at least the upgrade the GFS just had is providing us with it's first "fantasy storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 lol With all due respect, that's not exactly a Nostradamus level prediction given the model performance over the past few months. What happened to the time, when one model, often the Euro, would lock onto an event several days out and the others would gradually come into agreement? I know...lol I wish we had those days again. I really do, but when is the last time that happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 lol With all due respect, that's not exactly a Nostradamus level prediction given the model performance over the past few months. What happened to the time, when one model, often the Euro, would lock onto an event several days out and the others would gradually come into agreement? I think as the models keep being "tweaked" to make them better; they are falling victim to a lot more issues than when they were newer. I mean, I wasn't old enough to know what the first models were truly like, but I'm sure at the time compared to having nothing they were wonderful. I share your thoughts though. King Euro and everything falling to it was pretty much awesome! In fact, I think the Euro just got around to pushing an upgrade when they heard the GFS was undergoing one. That sounds more like "hah, we have more of this feature and more reso and this and that" than actually trying to predict the weather. Not sure what's up with that. I guess in the end, humanity does that in any situation though... and possibly it wasn't even like that. I would hope if they had an upgrade ready, they would have pushed it right away instead of holding off to keep their "throne". Edit: Thinking about it, I have a bias towards the Euro. The way they charge for access (massive amounts of money!).. Not sure of their specific financial situation though. I miss those days BUT........at least the upgrade the GFS just had is providing us with it's first "fantasy storm" This potential pattern & storminess is the absolute perfect test for the new GFS upgrades vs the Euro upgrades of recent. I'm very excited to see verification scores come April for the Winter as a whole from Jan 14th-April 1st. I know...lol I wish we had those days again. I really do, but when is the last time that happened? The last time I remember (and I'm biased of course) was when the GFS had nailed that Feb ice storm last year many many days out. It dropped it to an extent. The Euro came in and dropped a freaking bomb for all of us in GA/SC/NC. We had to use the EPS to figure out what was going on because the Euro OP was back and forth and all-around odd. Finally, 2 days or so out, the GFS grabbed it back to what the Euro EPS was showing and then the Euro OP latched on. Biggest sleet storm I've ever seen. Lots of ice to the South. Edit: just realized you were talking about all models falling in line with the OP Euro possibly? If so, I have no idea either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I know...lol I wish we had those days again. I really do, but when is the last time that happened?the euro used to be better before the "upgrade" they did back about 4 years ago. Since then something in the model is not as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 the euro used to be better before the "upgrade" they did back about 4 years ago. Since then something in the model is not as good. Do you also agree that the GGEM seemed to be better before the 4D? I think it did pretty okay in 2010. Not 100% sure on when the 4D went into operation though. What is scary is that the GGEM has wanted to cut the system from the start. I personally didn't look but heard James say that it caved to a more GFS-like solution as of 12z for the Jan 23/24/25? Edit:Maybe I didnt care about it enough before 2010 either though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Do you also agree that the GGEM seemed to be better before the 4D? I think it did pretty okay in 2010. Not 100% sure on when the 4D went into operation though. What is scary is that the GGEM has wanted to cut the system from the start. I personally didn't look but heard James say that it caved to a more GFS-like solution as of 12z for the Jan 23/24/25? Edit:Maybe I didnt care about it enough before 2010 either though. Yeah, the 12z Canadian crushes it and we get no storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Red line is temp, green line is dewpoint. Where they are close together, moisture is high. The temp scale is on the bottom, and the temp lines are the black lines that slant up and to the right (from 'southwest' to northeast' on the chart). So, on that example, it's below freezing except for the lowest layer below 950mb. That sounding shows the ground at 1000mb, but in reality it's a little higher than that for Charlotte...maybe 980mb or so, but it varies (not fixed) Thank you! The clouds have parted and I see light! Just an observer but trying to learn, your explanation was great. I'll return to hiding under my rock now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Imho- op models will never do well at long leads (d4-5+) when there is zero blocking and fast flow. It's not mathematically possible to get it right run over run. Models did well at long leads back in 09-10 and 10-11 because flow was so much slower at times. We haven't had a meaningful -nao since then. Next time we do we'll all be surprised when an op locks in 6 days out and keeps the general look for days. Until then, we sweat it out and get frustrated and say models suck even though they're as good or better than just a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Imho- op models will never do well at long leads (d4-5+) when there is zero blocking and fast flow. It's not mathematically possible to get it right run over run. Models did well at long leads back in 09-10 and 10-11 because flow was so much slower at times. We haven't had a meaningful -nao since then. Next time we do we'll all be surprised when an op locks in 6 days out and keeps the general look for days. Until then, we sweat it out and get frustrated and say models suck even though they're as good or better than just a few years ago. great point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It looks like 6 of the 12 GFS Ens members on ewall had a nice hit for portions of the SE for late next week (18z run). ^ Thanks Berlin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Tracking this storm is gonna be like tracking a cape Verde wave all the way across the atlantic. Long week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Tracking this storm is gonna be like tracking a cape Verde wave all the way across the atlantic. Long week ahead. Don't worry, it'll be headed up the Apps in a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Don't worry, it'll be headed up the Apps in a few runs. I'm leaning towards the storm bring sheared to hell and getting nothing but clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Don't worry, it'll be headed up the Apps in a few minutes.Fyp! I think the Thursday threat will be rain, but hope I'm wrong. Just don't see the cold and the 18z was beautiful and all, but need consistency! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I can't make it anymore. James be sure to post some clowns tonight. Helps the eyes open up at 4.45.. one thing I'm interested in is the difference in good lps and bad lps in the GL region and how it affects t he confluence. Beleive it was Bob who posted on that earlier. The way the northern stream sets up shop will be the trend to track. I'm not to worried about the southern stream with the pac driving a split flow. Storms will be plentifull, starting late next week and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Fyp! I think the Thursday threat will be rain, but hope I'm wrong. Just don't see the cold and the 18z was beautiful and all, but need consistency! GSP shows temps for next Wed and Thurs as 57 and 53. Not below 31 for the entire forecast period, with a 36 Wed night. Not even close doesn't cover it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 hmmm..looks a bit stronger with that stuff over the OHV from what I can tell from the 12z run..lets see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 0Z GFS has the 1/22-23 Miller A. SN E TX/LA 1/22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The storm is alive by hr 168. Looks pretty similar to the 18z run. Maybe a touch slower. Colder across MS/AL. Could be snow if surface temps cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 0z GFS looking really interesting with the Jan 24 storm. Low brewing over the GOM. Some phasing occuring at 178, trying to turn the trough axis more neutral. Some HP... a little muddy with a weak low swinging thru the arctic branch but it's looking good enough to drive in the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 0Z 1/16 GFS: 1/22-23 sig to major SN much of northern half of MS/AL; N 1/3 of GA 1/23: sig to major SN into NW SC and much of NC 1/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 00z GFS is another home run! Wooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 And unlike previous events, the pattern actually looks half decent, with support from other models, indices and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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