burgertime Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Congrats to VA on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 None of the models have been really consistent since last week when the first big hit showed up on the Euro. I think it means we still don't know what could happen. It could still end up good and not show up consistently until 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 We would honestly need a PV sitting over Jacksonville, Florida at D5 in order to have a legitimate shot at snow changing to rain this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 None of the models have been really consistent since last week when the first big hit showed up on the Euro. I think it means we still don't know what could happen. It could still end up good and not show up consistently until 3 days out. They have consistently been not snowy for many runs now, with the exception of a blip here or there. Don't be a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looks like TN and WNC would mostly be snow but to warm for anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 What happened to the pattern being advertised a few days for this time period....been the theme all winter, people getting pumped up lecturing you about how great things look and time after time it fails, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 They have consistently been not snowy for many runs now, with the exception of a blip here or there. Don't be a Their solutions have not been consistent. From a big hit, to suppressed, to a cutter. And the Euro just went from a good storm here the last run to nothing this one. Not sure how that is consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Their solutions have not been consistent. From a big hit, to suppressed, to a cutter. And the Euro just went from a good storm here the last run to nothing this one. Not sure how that is consistent. It's very consistent, like clockwork all winter. Don't believe day 7+ winter storms on models, they are not going to happen this winter, it's not going to snow. The pattern goes to crap very quickly, actually, it's good for like a day now if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 We will always have last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It's very consistent, like clockwork all winter. Don't believe day 7+ winter storms on models, they are not going to happen this winter, it's not going to snow. The pattern goes to crap very quickly, actually, it's good for like a day now if that. agree this winter is over. Robert had a good write up last night and said winter does not look good for winter lovers in SE. Funny he is one of many that do not see anything in the future anytime soon. The models have been the worse ever even 48 hours. No sense getting excited unless within 48 and even that is stretching it. Maybe we will get lucky but time is running out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 agree this winter is over. Robert had a good write up last night and said winter does not look good for winter lovers in SE. Funny he is one of many that do not see anything in the future anytime soon. The models have been the worse ever even 48 hours. No sense getting excited unless within 48 and even that is stretching it. Maybe we will get lucky but time is running out It's good to hear that Robert agrees, it's a bummer, thats for sure. I am certainly looking forward to spring and dry weather. But, I have a feeling that Feb will be damp/cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The 12z JMA looks good at 144hrs. It doesn't have a northern stream system diving down and thus builds a better field of High pressure to our north, and it looks like the southwest low is going to eject, providing more of a Miller A setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It's good to hear that Robert agrees, it's a bummer, thats for sure. I am certainly looking forward to spring and dry weather. But, I have a feeling that Feb will be damp/cool. That's been the highlight of the winter. No real warm spells, just a lot of cold rain. Many days of cloudy upper 30s/low 40s rain. Seattle winter weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 ROberts forecast busted big time this winter much like everyone else's He usually holds on longer than anyone else, that is definitely a bad sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looks like TN and WNC would mostly be snow but to warm for anyone else.too warm for us too. We go up to +4 at 850 the below freezing after the rain. Story of the winter.#fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm going to post this now so we can see how it plays out. The euro has given me feet of fantasy snow this year. I have only seen snow showers since nov. K1A5_2015012600_eps_snow_240.pngwell that didn't take long. I'm sure someone will be by soon to let me know the euro is the best model in the NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If you actually look at the Euro from last night it was just perfect. The huge high slid down at exactly the right time to let the energy slide underneath but still pump the cold in before the moisture arrived. Any changes to the timing or strength of either feature and it wasn't going to work out and that's exactly what we see at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I guess we all can just live vicariously through the New Yorkers and New Englanders' observations and posts through this upcoming blizzard. We certainly don't seem like we'll be getting snow anytime soon at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If you actually look at the Euro from last night it was just perfect. The huge high slid down at exactly the right time to let the energy slide underneath but still pump the cold in before the moisture arrived. Any changes to the timing or strength of either feature and it wasn't going to work out and that's exactly what we see at 12z. So my question is why could that not happen again? Is that not really a viable option considering the pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So my question is why could that not happen again? Is that not really a viable option considering the pattern?not really, the nao is positive so things will come north. Besides, the euro was the only one showing snow. We know how that always works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It is possible. We all would have felt much better if the Euro had the same colder look.. The NE movement, weak high sliding out is worrisome at this point. But got a few days before the boat leaves the dock, imo. So my question is why could that not happen again? Is that not really a viable option considering the pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It is possible. We all would have felt much better if the Euro had the same colder look.. The NE movement, weak high sliding out is worrisome at this point. But got a few days before the boat leaves the dock, imo. Unfortunately, the dock is floating away from the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwisephotog Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I feel like everyone is ready to jump ship…. but shouldn't we wait until maybe thursday to abandon the ship… this snow pack in the NE could give us the cooling we need to get some wintery precip in here… don't abandon the ship before the life rafts are inflated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I feel like everyone is ready to jump ship…. but shouldn't we wait until maybe thursday to abandon the ship… this snow pack in the NE could give us the cooling we need to get some wintery precip in here… don't abandon the ship before the life rafts are inflated I agree with this. Most likely the air will be colder once the models sample it coming across the snow pack. If we can get the low to pop a 50 50 for us models should start trending colder.. models also are starting to push the sw energy east instead of leaving it behind so there are positive signs here. People tend to hone in on the negatives and blow it out of proportion.. heck if i can see a wet snow flake over night i will be content with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So my question is why could that not happen again? Is that not really a viable option considering the pattern? It is and too many who know better flipflop on every run like its the gospel.....plenty of times we have seen models move all over the place until the last 3 days or so when they all start to converge on a solution..hell thts actually more or less the playbook for getting a snowstorm in the SE.....rarely does a storm pop up in the 5-7 day range and lock in. In a lot of ways the ability to try and see beyond say 120 hrs is a curse, I can remember when the best indicator I had that we might see a snow was pink mixed precip colored in on the US map over TX/LA and northern AL/MS on the 5 day forecast on TWC. I bet we get a decent general snowfall in NC this winter we usually do....and if not its no big deal and we can hope for a good spring storm year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 We basically have a 48 hour window of enough cold air in the area to produce a winter storm, according to the Euro. At 168, the PV is sitting in SE Canada underneath a transient -NAO. A shortwave (black X) is moving east in the polar jet, behind which a High Pressure is building in. The SW energy (green X) is sitting over the Baja, moving slowly east. The 850 line is draping through the upper SE. At 192, the PV has retreated north as the transient -NAO has moved out. The PJ shortwave has moved over SE Canada and High Pressure is firmly entrenched, ushering cold down into the SE. The 850 line has moved south, and the SW energy has moved over old Mexico and is heading east. At 216, the PJ shortwave has moved farther east, allowing High Pressure to slide off the coast (I believe that shortwave will end up being north of where it is modeled now, meaning High Pressure will be north as well). The 850 line is retreating, but CAD still exists below it. The STJ shortwave has moved into a favorable position to generate precipitation...just in time for the cold to leave. There is a split flow depicted in this image. Here's what has to happen: A) The whole entire upper level pattern north of the US boarder has to be modeled incorrectly and that has to correct itself as we get closer. Blocking will reappear and cold air will press farther south than modeled. Good luck with that. B ) The SW energy has to eject sooner so that it gets to the ball before midnight and the High Pressure leaves...but not too soon so as to cut. C) Some sort of bomb-out scenario off the GA/SC coast before the cold air retreats. Option B seems the most likely of all of these, in my mind. And that will only be relevant IF the cold air is not overmodeled right now. It very well could be. This whole thing could end up being warmer than shown, even if the SW system doesn't cut. If the high builds in and the air is as cold as shown, there is about 48 hours to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The difference in the North Pacific on the 12z vs 00z are laughable. If you wanna know why this run looked like it did it's cause the Np was much flatter than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The thing I'm running into with this setup is just the fact that we've seen it most of this winter on the models and it has ended the same way pretty much every single time. It's hard to bet against the streak. I think we still hold out until Thursday but I just don't have much faith. On a positive note the EPS didn't look terrible probably a couple of good member in that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The thing I'm running into with this setup is just the fact that we've seen it most of this winter on the models and it has ended the same way pretty much every single time. It's hard to bet against the streak. I think we still hold out until Thursday but I just don't have much faith. On a positive note the EPS didn't look terrible probably a couple of good member in that one. Exactly. You have to look at the seasonal trends. Doesn't mean this one can't buck the trends, but you just can't go around and hang your hat on the weenie speak about the models not being consistent. That's true, but it doesn't mean that when they do converge on a solution, it will be a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The eps is meh the mean is skewed by a massive boardwide blizzard by one member Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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