Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 CMC does have a warm bias, right? Yeah I know that's a weenie thing to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It looks just like the euro except the euro had a much greater cold push The 0z euro has had the strongest Canadian high of all the models. I'd like to see some other model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 We're going to need these models to start showing a way to get the SE cold and keep it cold, pretty soon. The fat lady is eating dessert now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 CMC does have a warm bias, right? Yeah I know that's a weenie thing to say. I don't know about that, but I do think it's close enough to a Euro like solution from last night to at least pay attention. Looks like something that could trend MUCH more favorably with just a little more cold air available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Good post. If there is a nice heavy snow pack to our NE I think in this setup a weak high such as a 1024 could create enough cold air to give us some sleet or ZR ...if that snow pack is in place. A 1028 or 1036 we would def. be in business. Long story short models are likely to change as we go into Wed and Thurs. 12z GFS already shows a CAD setup with its solution and some wintery precip in NC and upper SC. But it has the least amount of snow for the NE(for this first event). You would have to ascertain that if there is more snow to the NE(next couple of days) and the GFS is right about its Sunday solution that there would be higher odds of a more widespread ice event. At least that's what I'm hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 We're going to need these models to start showing a way to get the SE cold and keep it cold, pretty soon. The fat lady is eating dessert now. I was about ready to close the book on this yesterday until the 0z euro pulled me back in. I hate this hobby sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I don't know about that, but I do think it's close enough to a Euro like solution from last night to at least pay attention. Looks like something that could trend MUCH more favorably with just a little more cold air available. Just need that cold air like the Euro. Plenty of time to change and show it. I like that the Euro is the one showing the best scenario now and not the other way around. I think usually the others fall in line with the Euro when they are different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 We're going to need these models to start showing a way to get the SE cold and keep it cold, pretty soon. The fat lady is eating dessert now. Yeah, not good trends, the GFS is getting warmer, the weak -NAO is a little further north now and the PV is a little further north. When you compare to the Euro you can see how much further south it is with the block/PV. It's a very shaky setup and unlikely to stay the course or tick south. It does look promising for an event, more so for NC (west of I-77) and up through the MA to the NE. I doubt his cuts to much more than that as the ridging is in a good spot and there is a weak block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I don't know about that, but I do think it's close enough to a Euro like solution from last night to at least pay attention. Looks like something that could trend MUCH more favorably with just a little more cold air available. The concerning thing is, the degree of cold air has been overmodeled most of the year at longer leads. This isn't in the 10 day + window, but it still applies. That's why I was happy to see the oppressively cold solutions earlier. If we were still seeing that, I'd feel much better. Now, we're having to figure out ways to get the cold back. That is not the position we want to be in. The Euro was pretty good from last night. But until we see more consistency from it and from other models showing what it showed, it was a blip. I know some steps have been taken toward it with the GFS and the CMC, but they are going to have to come at least all the way over to the Euro solution for us to have a shot. There's no room for a compromised solution at this point. Anything less than what the Euro shows is a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Just need that cold air like the Euro. Plenty of time to change and show it. I like that the Euro is the one showing the best scenario now and not the other way around. I think usually the others fall in line with the Euro when they are different. People keep saying that but the Euro hasn't exactly been amazing this year. I feel like the GFS has actually sniffed out solutions first and Euro follows suit. Due to 4 runs of the GFS we end up with more inconsistency in the medium to long range. Where the Euro has done well is in the 3-4 day range locking on to what is most likely to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The concerning thing is, the degree of cold air has been overmodeled most of the year at longer leads. This isn't in the 10 day + window, but it still applies. That's why I was happy to see the oppressively cold solutions earlier. If we were still seeing that, I'd feel much better. Now, we're having to figure out ways to get the cold back. That is not the position we want to be in. The Euro was pretty good from last night. But until we see more consistency from it and from other models showing what it showed, it was a blip. I know some steps have been taken toward it with the GFS and the CMC, but they are going to have to come at least all the way over to the Euro solution for us to have a shot. There's no room for a compromised solution at this point. Anything less than what the Euro shows is a This is a delicate situation for snow (as it almost always is in the SE), but I am generally encouraged when thinking back to the runs from just a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The concerning thing is, the degree of cold air has been overmodeled most of the year at longer leads. This isn't in the 10 day + window, but it still applies. That's why I was happy to see the oppressively cold solutions earlier. If we were still seeing that, I'd feel much better. Now, we're having to figure out ways to get the cold back. That is not the position we want to be in. The Euro was pretty good from last night. But until we see more consistency from it and from other models showing what it showed, it was a blip. I know some steps have been taken toward it with the GFS and the CMC, but they are going to have to come at least all the way over to the Euro solution for us to have a shot. There's no room for a compromised solution at this point. Anything less than what the Euro shows is a Given the setup happening now it's probably pointless to even watch the models (though we still will) as cliche as it is. It's just a fact that models are horrible showing how cold the air actually is after a big snow in a region where it snows. I think if that snow can stick around for 5 days (which is asking a lot BTW) we have a good shot if we can get some CAD. One thing to note is that the GFS keeps snow on the ground until Saturday in much of the NE without it being crazy cold after this first big storm (which it will be). So with all that said even the GFS how it looks right now might still be able to surprise. Lots of ifs and buts in there though. Hopefully the Euro doesn't fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 ^ Yeah, the latest runs are better than the ones a couple days ago. And, I agree, there are some things that can trend in our favor. It is by no means wise to write this off. It'll be interesting to see if this time, we can actually get colder as we get closer instead of warmer, as seems to be the norm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 ^ Yeah, the latest runs are better than the ones a couple days ago. And, I agree, there are some things that can trend in our favor. It is by no means wise to write this off. It'll be interesting to see if this time, we can actually get colder as we get closer instead of warmer, as seems to be the norm this year. That would take some luck on our part, which we haven't had for some time. Our luck will eventually change, let's see if this can be that time. Because when things are going well this would be a winter storm for us, although that's been while (2004) when they are not going well this will fall apart in the next couple of days. Great test... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That would take some luck on our part, which we haven't had for some time. Our luck will eventually change, let's see if this can be that time. Because when things are going well this would be a winter storm for us, although that's been while (2004) when they are not going well this will fall apart in the next couple of days. Great test... Lack of blocking has really been hurting. Isotherm had a good post in the main forum about the pattern, a couple of days ago. Seemed confident that blocking was going to develop. Since then, the pattern forecast has fallen apart. I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I don't know about that, but I do think it's close enough to a Euro like solution from last night to at least pay attention. Looks like something that could trend MUCH more favorably with just a little more cold air available. The GGEM brings the storm in about 24hours earlier I believe. This would not allow as much time for the big high in the Northern US to build east then down the APPS before precip comes in and move out. As usual in the south its all about the timing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Lack of blocking has really been hurting. Isotherm had a good post in the main forum about the pattern, a couple of days ago. Seemed confident that blocking was going to develop. Since then, the pattern forecast has fallen apart. I dunno. We had blocking this would be a big winter storm for us this weekend. Blocking has just completely failed this winter and I see no end in sight of blocking developing. We are truly having a complete 1 off with how things should be in a +ENSO/+PDO. I thought the AO would eventually come around considering we have never had a winter with a +PDO/+ENSO where all three months (DJF) had a +AO. A sustainable -NAO is hopeless too, I think it's like 1 out of the past 14 winter months with a -NAO, which shows why we have been pathetic with snow (10" over those 14 months). Good news is that it can't get worse, it can't snow less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The GGEM brings the storm in about 24hours earlier I believe. This would not allow as much time for the big high in the Northern US to build east then down the APPS before precip comes in and move out. As usual in the south its all about the timing! Absolutely agree, timing is everything in this setup. That said, it's nice to have a period to follow that's actually within 7 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Just need that cold air like the Euro. Plenty of time to change and show it. I like that the Euro is the one showing the best scenario now and not the other way around. I think usually the others fall in line with the Euro when they are different. I'm going to post this now so we can see how it plays out. The euro has given me feet of fantasy snow this year. I have only seen snow showers since nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 DOC backed off a bit for NYC, but nothing like the GFS or CMC still Showing around 14-18" and near 30" near BOS. EURO OP is actually pretty close to the mean. Sounds like a nice battle with the models still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 DOC backed off a bit for NYC, but nothing like the GFS or CMC still Showing around 14-18" and near 30" near BOS. EURO OP is actually pretty close to the mean. Sounds like a nice battle with the models still. NWS just upgraded Long Island to 20-30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NWS just upgraded Long Island to 20-30" Looks like it might be up to 20" around there and maybe east of NYC. Maybe it got knocked back by like 6-8" or so. Either way, MUCH more than the CMC and GFS. I would say 1-2' with some higher amounts possible. NYC, I would say 14-20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Out to 132 don't know if the Euro is going to cut it. Highs are not as strong on this run coming out of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Just from the freebie height maps you can see it won't be as suppressed. Very GFS like. Stick a fork in it, quick death for this one. Although, maybe w-NC can get in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Not sure about moisture but at hour 144 the h5 looks pretty good and 850s look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Wow...Euro has a 42" lollipop just south of Boston. Off of Andrew's site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well the Euro looks like it took a step towards the GFS/Euro it's close here but just too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Just from the freebie height maps you can see it won't be as suppressed. Very GFS like. Stick a fork in it, quick death for this one. Although, maybe w-NC can get in on it. Yeah the high is not as strong but just one run we will see some waffling I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 euro still has some light snow moving into north carolina at hour 150 but goes over to rain by 156 with the 0c 850 isotherm retreating to the va border. Everything is much further north and has trended toward the gfs/canadian and it has a rather wide swath of light to moderate snow heading for the freaking mid atlantic...of course edit..yep good snow for the entire mid atlantic. *barf* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Could we place all the Northern Blizz posts in the Banter thread? We are trying to eek out a warm snow down here. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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