strongwxnc Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You are correct. Temps erode quickly at 159. Sure is wet at 156 for WNC, NW upstate and northern GA with .5-.75 showing up. Lose the low in the lakes and build in more high............and bingo we have a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Overall I like the direction the 12z gfs took. It the low over the lakes would get out of the way we'd be in good shape but it's blocking our cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Overall I like the direction the 12z gfs took. It the low over the lakes would get out of the way we'd be in good shape but it's blocking our cold. That's been a staple this winter. Symptom of not enough ridging correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Still wonder how much effect a fat coat of snow will have to our North and Northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That's been a staple this winter. Symptom of not enough ridging correct? I would say so but it seems it's been a problem for several years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Lose the low in the lakes and build in more high............and bingo we have a winner. I don't know, I think I would like to see a more organized system instead of that strung out mess at the surface on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Why's the site running so slow today? It looks to me like their provider/developer(s) are still working on things. For example, I usually run my browser with javascript disabled. Normally the only thing that prevents me from doing on this site's forum is all the HTML extra goodies in posting replies. However, a little while ago, I got a message that I needed to enable javascript for a DDOS check, and access was blocked until I did just that. I've also intermittently gotten "americanwx.com is down" messages from the website hosting company today so their traffic is still through the roof I'd guess. I don't think they are actually being maliciously DDOS'ed, I think they are just getting pounded by people up north (and people down here who are fretting over the 2/2 potential, but more the northerners than us I'm sure). But they seem to be taking steps to shore up the site a little better anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I don't know, I think I would like to see a more organized system instead of that strung out mess at the surface on the 12z. Overrunning events can produce very good events for the SE if we have the cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I don't know, I think I would like to see a more organized system instead of that strung out mess at the surface on the 12z. I am talking in a very general sense (i.e. something much closer to the Euro from last night). Overrunning from a weak low traversing the gulf coast is likely the best way to hit many on our board, but we have to have a solution that includes more high pressure coming down from the north(again, like the euro from last night) and no low pressure in the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It looks to me like their provider/developer(s) are still working on things. For example, I usually run my browser with javascript disabled. Normally the only thing that prevents me from doing on this site's forum is all the HTML extra goodies in posting replies. However, a little while ago, I got a message that I needed to enable javascript for a DDOS check, and access was blocked until I did just that. I've also intermittently gotten "americanwx.com is down" messages from the website hosting company today so their traffic is still through the roof I'd guess. I don't think they are actually being maliciously DDOS'ed, I think they are just getting pounded by people up north (and people down here who are fretting over the 2/2 potential, but more the northerners than us I'm sure). But they seem to be taking steps to shore up the site a little better anyway. I've never had any malicious javascript in all the years I've done computer work (26+). Java yes. You miss out on a lot of functionality if javascript is disabled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12z GFS trending the sTJ low east and more of a -EPO ridge again, plus a -NAO. This is the ticket with the lingering energy sitting over the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS is splitting the northern stream energy at hr132. Once piece heads to the 4 corners, which is fine. The other piece heads toward Iowa and Wisconsin, which is not fine - that produces the Great Lakes low and warming in the SE. Need that other northern energy to dig south to Kansas to keep the heights from rising over the SE / keep from warming. Regardless of all that, the high pressure on the front in that moves in from hr84 to hr132 has to be impressively cold...lot of needs here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It looks to me like their provider/developer(s) are still working on things. For example, I usually run my browser with javascript disabled. Normally the only thing that prevents me from doing on this site's forum is all the HTML extra goodies in posting replies. However, a little while ago, I got a message that I needed to enable javascript for a DDOS check, and access was blocked until I did just that. I've also intermittently gotten "americanwx.com is down" messages from the website hosting company today so their traffic is still through the roof I'd guess. I don't think they are actually being maliciously DDOS'ed, I think they are just getting pounded by people up north (and people down here who are fretting over the 2/2 potential, but more the northerners than us I'm sure). But they seem to be taking steps to shore up the site a little better anyway. Board didn't crash due to overload, might be getting DDoS'd but I don't know....maybe Wow knows This was from the 24th... American Wx @AmericanWx We’re aware of the issue with the site and we’re working on it. Board did not crash due to overload. Having outside diagnostics done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So, it's the day of the storm for NYC. The NAM shows a million inches of snow. The Euro is 20-30". Meanwhile, the GFS, GGEM, and RGEM show significantly less (10-12" or so). Fun stuff up there. EDIT: Actually, the GGEM is probably more like 7-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12z GFS trending the sTJ low east and more of a -EPO ridge again, plus a -NAO. This is the ticket with the lingering energy sitting over the SW. It had this look at the end of last week before losing it over the weekend. It looks as if it's trending back towards that. If so I wouldn't be surprised for the model to show a possible storm around 2/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS is splitting the northern stream energy at hr132. Once piece heads to the 4 corners, which is fine. The other piece heads toward Iowa and Wisconsin, which is not fine - that produces the Great Lakes low and warming in the SE. Need that other northern energy to dig south to Kansas to keep the heights from rising over the SE / keep from warming. Regardless of all that, the high pressure on the front in that moves in from hr84 to hr132 has to be impressively cold...lot of needs here. The euro has a different solution ( 00z ) it's almost like the cold caught the storm . Timing was everything cause it was not very cold out front on the 00z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I would agree that the 12z GFS is a little better, but as grit just said we don't want the GL low. The 12z GFS does show some wintery precip in CAD areas (especially NC). http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_150_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=150&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150126+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Still wonder how much effect a fat coat of snow will have to our North and Northeast? Heavy snowpack just to the north can be a difference maker. I posted last night that I am paying attention to how the new GFS does compared to other modeling with the NE Blizzard since its the first test of a big time east coast event. It just lost an ally as the 12Z NAM shifted west and now has very heavy snow totals back into NYC while 12Z GFS remains relatively anemic there and further east. Euro has been consistent in giving NYC some really heavy stuff. Either the GFS will score a big coup or it will be the same crap model in regards to big time events now just in HD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS is splitting the northern stream energy at hr132. Once piece heads to the 4 corners, which is fine. The other piece heads toward Iowa and Wisconsin, which is not fine - that produces the Great Lakes low and warming in the SE. Need that other northern energy to dig south to Kansas to keep the heights from rising over the SE / keep from warming. Regardless of all that, the high pressure on the front in that moves in from hr84 to hr132 has to be impressively cold...lot of needs here. Good catch grit...I didn't even notice the spit of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Later on the gfs we have a weak low in the gulf but of course we have another lakes low causing temps to rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I've never had any malicious javascript in all the years I've done computer work (26+). Java yes. You miss out on a lot of functionality if javascript is disabled. I run NoScript, which blocks javascript, Java, Flash, etc. from running when I visit a site unless I explicitly permit that site. Very few sites are on my permanently allowed list. Many other sites, including this one, I just temporarily allow if I need the functionality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think this is first HUGE test, for the new GFS. I mean, the differences are still pretty big, from what I can tell with this storm *with the euro* about to climb the coast. I see that the NAM has come toward the EURO solution. GFS still looks clueless in its new debut. Just my .02 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So, it's the day of the storm for NYC. The NAM shows a million inches of snow. The Euro is 20-30". Meanwhile, the GFS, GGEM, and RGEM show significantly less (10-12" or so). Fun stuff up there. EDIT: Actually, the GGEM is probably more like 7-10". Wow with the GGEM. That is a huge discrepancy for an event that is within 24 hours. If this were 15years ago I would say book the higher totals ala the ETA( now theNAM)/EURO rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So, it's the day of the storm for NYC. The NAM shows a million inches of snow. The Euro is 20-30". Meanwhile, the GFS, GGEM, and RGEM show significantly less (10-12" or so). Fun stuff up there. EDIT: Actually, the GGEM is probably more like 7-10". Talk about cliff jumping.....if the cutoff sets up just to the east of NYC and they get less than 7 to 10", there's going to be some posters on the NYC/Middle Atl. forum that may not psychologically make it through this storm . It will be must see over there if that happens. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 CMC looks a lot like the GFS. No GL low really and a 1040 high dropping into MT but we still end up with just a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GEFS also too warm. We need the Euro to save us on this one. If the GFS/CMC are right the NE and SNE are going to have the hot hand next week. As for the GFS in the LR what a dumpster fire that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Heavy snowpack just to the north can be a difference maker. I posted last night that I am paying attention to how the new GFS does compared to other modeling with the NE Blizzard since its the first test of a big time east coast event. It just lost an ally as the 12Z NAM shifted west and now has very heavy snow totals back into NYC while 12Z GFS remains relatively anemic there and further east. Euro has been consistent in giving NYC some really heavy stuff. Either the GFS will score a big coup or it will be the same crap model in regards to big time events now just in HD. Good post. If there is a nice heavy snow pack to our NE I think in this setup a weak high such as a 1024 could create enough cold air to give us some sleet or ZR ...if that snow pack is in place. A 1028 or 1036 we would def. be in business. Long story short models are likely to change as we go into Wed and Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 CMC looks a lot like the GFS. No GL low really and a 1040 high dropping into MT but we still end up with just a cold rain. The CMC pops a weak low cutting across Ga. w/ lots of precip for the SE. If we could get that slp a lttle further to the south and east it might be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The CMC pops a weak low cutting across Ga. w/ lots of precip for the SE. If we could get that slp a lttle further to the south and east it might be better. It looks just like the euro except the euro had a much greater cold push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Good post. If there is a nice heavy snow pack to our NE I think in this setup a weak high such as a 1024 could create enough cold air to give us some sleet or ZR ...if that snow pack is in place. A 1028 or 1036 we would def. be in business. Long story short models are likely to change as we go into Wed and Thurs. I wonder if WE can get a nice out of the blue blizzard in the SE once in a while! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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