CaryWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 uh-oh. a Ji sighting! Don't think I'm really here, Must be having a dream or something. After all, it is the middle of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLKeene123 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Hey guys im new here. Been a lurker for sometime but I thought I would take the opportunity to get in on the model mayhem. Good look from the 0z Euro, Especially along and north of the I-85 Corridor are GSP. Been waiting all winter to see some flakes. Keep up the Good Trends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Bricker is gonna be jacked when he gets into work and sees this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Just a higher resolution. Regular NAM is on a 12km domain while hi-res is 4km. I'm not too optimistic about seeing much snow tomorrow; everything below 900mb is torching. It's possible we get heavy enough rates to cool the column enough to get some snow, but it appears our best chance of seeing snow is on the back end when things are winding down. Thanks for the info! It's actually cooler than I expected this am but radar is sad looking...and I know how counting on the back end usually works out this close to the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Sign me up for what the Euro is showing. Ha wish we could take this one to the bank but being 7-days out and watching the Euro whiff a few times already this year makes me take this snowfall map with a grain of sand.. but at least it's pretty. Wundermap has a different formula for snowfall though from the Euro and a lot of time it is much more conservative than Weatherbell, so its good to see the flakes showing up. This clown map put me at around 48" of fantasy snow this year, and its amazing that it all melted with only a few grains of salt ha. Heres to tracking another! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Just looked on noaa tuis mornjng and found this. I love the last sentence. 000 FXUS62 KMHX 261115 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 615 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN TODAY WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF OF THE COAST. THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. STILL A COMPLICATED FORECAST NEXT 36 HOURS AS MILLER TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OFF OF THE NC COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST IS MOVING NORTHWARD AND SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF ONGOING SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND REMAINS MAINLY EAST OF THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THEIR PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT REGARDLESS OF WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. THINK BEST APPROACH AT THIS TIME IS TO INDICATE JUST A 30% POP AS MODEL QPF FORECASTS ARE INCONSISTENT AND AMOUNTS ARE VERY LIGHT. ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND THIS WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THE COASTAL LOW AS IT MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THESE SERIES OF EVENTS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO BE CIRCULATED INTO EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO UNDER 1000 FT BY 12Z TUESDAY. THUS ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ABLE TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AGAIN THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH QPF PLACEMENT WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25" INDICATED. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS. WE COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES/ELEVATED ROADWAYS. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY AFTER TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT 00Z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well the 6z GFS was not good. It actually looks just like the last system that fringed DC. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_162_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=162&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150126+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well the 6z GFS was not good. It actually looks just like the last system that fringed DC. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_162_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=162&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150126+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Yep, rain on the 2nd, rain on the 6th! The one positive is more moisture than 0z. , just need to find some cold , like the euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yep, rain on the 2nd, rain on the 6th! The one positive is more moisture than 0z. , just need to find some cold , like the euro! I thought the cold wasn't going to be a problem with this storm coming. The cold I thought or read was coming in a couple of days ahead of the superbowl system. man we can't catch a break at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think the thing to take away from the GFS is that it is starting to trend towards the CMC/Euro solution. Before it was just spinning that cutoff so far west and shooting little bits of energy off into the meat grinder. The 6z run is a descent phase it just phases too early. We need what the Euro is sowing which is that cutoff on the move instead of just spinning there. The worrisome part is that the CMC did this but there was no cold air around. Gotta hope the Euro is seeing the picture clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think the thing to take away from the GFS is that it is starting to trend towards the CMC/Euro solution. Before it was just spinning that cutoff so far west and shooting little bits of energy off into the meat grinder. The 6z run is a descent phase it just phases too early. We need what the Euro is sowing which is that cutoff on the move instead of just spinning there. The worrisome part is that the CMC did this but there was no cold air around. Gotta hope the Euro is seeing the picture clearer. Isn't the Euro the model of choice. I think if I've read everything right the Euro is the model that has been doing the best with these storms. Let's hope the Euro is on to something for Sunday night and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 How did the EPS look? Did it have a postive trend as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Isn't the Euro the model of choice. I think if I've read everything right the Euro is the model that has been doing the best with these storms. Let's hope the Euro is on to something for Sunday night and Monday. the problem is we need to run to run consistency and we have not gotten that with a storm so far this year at least showing us snow. Like I said last night we need more than one run to make this a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think the thing to take away from the GFS is that it is starting to trend towards the CMC/Euro solution. Before it was just spinning that cutoff so far west and shooting little bits of energy off into the meat grinder. The 6z run is a descent phase it just phases too early. We need what the Euro is sowing which is that cutoff on the move instead of just spinning there. The worrisome part is that the CMC did this but there was no cold air around. Gotta hope the Euro is seeing the picture clearer. yeah there was nothing but positive things about the Euro run, it like always will be the first to sniff it out in the 7 day range and it will take another day or two for the other models to finally cave to the Euro.....I wouldnt be getting my hopes up just yet but i the Euro holds serve and keeps the storm and trends colder/better at all then it will be game on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 How did the EPS look? Did it have a postive trend as well? Not much euro OP support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Bricker is gonna be jacked when he gets into work and sees this I sure am. Wow, did not expect that from the Euro. Now we are back to having a shot, and it's inside 7 days. Just hope it does not go poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 How did the EPS look? Did it have a postive trend as well?decent support back my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Hey Batman, I don't know if you saw this addition I made to that post: "By the way, the way I look at this strong storm assuming it goes ahead and occurs, it was always going to happen. It is just that the models had no idea about it til the last couple of days. Everything is weather is essentially predetermined to occur assuming no human intervention. It is just that the models aren't smart enough to know everything in advance. They have to catch on...it isn't that the future wx is changing. It is the models catching on and, therefore, changing their projections to match what had already been predetermined to occur." Great point you made last night. What is going to happen is going to happen. It is just the models understanding of what is going to happen that can have a great deal of fluctuation. Especially when there is a high impact system in the pattern. The problem is with us when we put too much weight and worry into what the models are saying every 6 hours on something several days down the road. Maybe there is something decent for us down the road and we can get a more clear picture of it by mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12 NAM looks a little bit wetter for central NC for tonight/tomorrow. Big question is-- is it right and will the temps be cold enough(above and below). http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_009_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_radar&fhr=009&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150126+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_015_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=015&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150126+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_024_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=precip_p24&fhr=024&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150126+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 You would have to guess the above depictions could give some a light dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12 NAM looks a little bit wetter for central NC for tonight/tomorrow. Big question is-- is it right and will the temps be cold enough(above and below).[/size] http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_009_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_radar&fhr=009&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150126+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0[/size] [/size] http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_015_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=015&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150126+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0[/size] http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_024_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=precip_p24&fhr=024&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150126+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0[/size] [/size] You would have to guess the above depictions could give some a light dusting[/size] Forecast high is 52 for RDU. Bet we'll eclipse it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 decent support back my way. I like where you sit for this weekend. Let's hope the -EPO holds on, if it does I think you should do great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 How did the EPS look? Did it have a postive trend as well? The mean doubled from ~1" to a little over 2" for us and most of N NC. Looks like around a third to a half of the members show a 2"+ event at GSO. There's a couple blockbuster members, but most members are not as wet as the operational (most snowy members are 2-8"). Not bad at this range, TBH. We'll see. It'll probably lose it at 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12 NAM looks a little bit wetter for central NC for tonight/tomorrow. Big question is-- is it right and will the temps be cold enough(above and below). http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_009_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_radar&fhr=009&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150126+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_015_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=015&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150126+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_024_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=precip_p24&fhr=024&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150126+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 You would have to guess the above depictions could give some a light dusting The 12z RGEM is quite wet, too. BL issues will probably be our downfall. The timing is awful... right around sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well that does looks pretty good for a day 7 event, if the Euro/EPS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well that does looks pretty good for a day 7 event, if the Euro/EPS is right. Less held back and more out front wrt the southern system will go a long way toward providing an opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah saw that. Thought the EURO ENS look pretty good with less of SW cuttoff of death and decent blocking. Looks to open up a bit more in the SW. If we're going to see it, I think we're going to see it today or tomorrow on the EURO. If we can get it to bite in the next two days maybe something could work out. GFS can come late to the party around Thursday for all I care. Doubt it but hopeful with the 0Z run. Why's the site running so slow today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Why's the site running so slow today? Something about some minor event taking place in the Northeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12z GFS looks much better at 144.. more Euro-like. Although our pesky GL low it's making a presence, but CAD is well in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 also at 150. Nice CAD look 12z GFS looks much better at 144.. more Euro-like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12z GFS looks much better at 144.. more Euro-like. Although our pesky GL low it's making a presence, but CAD is well in place. Lose the low in the lakes and build in more high............and bingo we have a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.