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Winter medium range model pbp I


GaWx

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The 00z Euro is a good 50 miles east of its 12z run.  It's still a great hit for NYC.

Usually in these situations in my experience the Euro will move some and then the other models will meet the Euro in the middle. Well, except for the NAM which will just spit out random crap every 6 hours. I'm much more interested in what happens a week from now though. Come on king Euro find our storm!

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The 00z Euro is a good 50 miles east of its 12z run. It's still a great hit for NYC. 20"+. Mets are going to have a tough job up there.

I doubt you could think of a higher pressure situation for mets... It's only a 20 inch spread between models across the most densely populated area in the country. NYC will be a stones throw from a significant but not too notable storm. Gradient will probably end up being around an inch per 2 miles or so.
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Okay, so let me get this straight. When our SE Groundhog Day storm was dropping snow in ATL on the GFS for 10+ days out (around 5-6 days ago), the NE storm for Monday and Tuesday this current week looked considerably less snowy than it does now. And now, the NE storm looks like blizzard conditions, while the SE storm is basically a rain (and ice for NC) storm. If this is correct, I have faith that after the NE storm occurs, we'll see the snowstorm on the GFS again ;)

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 Per early 0Z Euro maps, the Canadian high at day 5 is a bit stronger (now back above 1052 mb) and the western ridge is a little further west. I'm wondering if this may mean that an early Feb. threat will return. We'll see what later maps show. I'm still wondering about 2/4-5 for potential big CAD, regardless.

  #Faithinthepellets

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Good! Does it get close for us GA folks?

 

Far N GA mtns get real nice hit. Where is your approximate location?

 

James et al get a huge hit. Epic hit. clown has 8-12" W NC to N NC..please take with a huge grain though clown likely not overdoing badly due to lack of sig CAD. Bedtime soon!

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lol what's the run down James.

 

Basically, 10"+ at 10:1 ratios for everyone from just N of CLT to just NW of RDU.  Easy cold enough for us.  850s never get above -4C or so.  RDU and CLT make out well, too.

 

Actually, at 10:1 ratios, that is a foot here.  Doubt we'd get 10:1, but still.  When the low bombs, we get a little love.

 

EDIT: Actually, surface temps fall into the mid-20s, then the teens, so we might get 10:1...

 

The clown goes...

 

GSO: 11.5"

RDU: 9.6"

CLT: 8.8" (10"+ just N/W)

AVL: 11.7"

 

Extreme N GA and N AL/MS also get some, as does most of TN (not as heavy, though).

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Far N GA mtns get real nice hit. Where is your approximate location?

James et al get a huge hit. Epic hit. clown has 8-12" W NC to N NC..please take with a huge grain though clown likely not overdoing badly due to lack of sig CAD. Bedtime soon!

Dawsonville. Need to update my location. Great trend!

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Basically, 10"+ at 10:1 ratios for everyone from just N of CLT to just NW of RDU.  Easy cold enough for us.  850s never get above -4C or so.  RDU and CLT make out well, too.

 

Actually, at 10:1 ratios, that is a foot here.  Doubt we'd get 10:1, but still.  When the low bombs, we get a little love.

 

EDIT: Actually, surface temps fall into the mid-20s, then the teens, so we might get 10:1...

 

The clown goes...

 

GSO: 11.5"

RDU: 9.6"

CLT: 8.8" (10"+ just N/W)

AVL: 11.7"

 

Extreme N GA and N AL/MS also get some, as does most of TN (not as heavy, though).

Thanks James. Great trend tonight for the Euro. To beat it all after the storm an arctic blast comes through.
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Impressive but let's keep composure. We have seen a lot of wild swings from run to run from th models. That would be an awsome storm for lot of us but just one run. We need to see the GFS go that way and about 10 more runs from the EURO like this.

 

Agreed.  It almost sucks to get runs like this because you know it's only going to go downhill from here...  Nice shift, regardless.  I just hope this isn't an intermediate step to the Euro giving us a cutter next run.

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Impressive but let's keep composure. We have seen a lot of wild swings from run to run from th models. That would be an awsome storm for lot of us but just one run. We need to see the GFS go that way and about 10 more runs from the EURO like this.

There are/will be alot of swings, but the GFS trended colder today and the euro had this look a few days ago and basically 6-7 days out, positive baby steps!
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Agreed.  It almost sucks to get runs like this because you know it's only going to go downhill from here...  Nice shift, regardless.  I just hope this isn't an intermediate stop to the Euro giving us a cutter next run.

 

Yeah, but at day-5 the look is impressive (much better) and in the euro's wheelhouse.

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