Winter medium range model pbp I

[UNCCmetgrad]

So is anyone else interested in seeing how the New England snowstorm plays out as far as the GFS upgrade is concerned? This seems to be its first big test in comparison to other modeling. Would be a good idea of seeing how it does with the track of upper level and surface features. It seems it has trended a little further east with lower totals while the Doc has stood firm.  Just something to watch for since there isn't a whole lot of anything going on down south.

[BIG FROSTY]

Looks like the mega clipper has made here, sprinkles and 46. Lol

[valkhorn]

Honestly (and this was mentioned by a met or two before) we may not be able to get much accuracy in the models until this Noreaster is behind us. Ever since the Noreaster was progged to bomb on the models, we've gone from potentially cold and snowy to warm and dry.

 

I'd wait until the middle of next week to start sticking a fork in the next two weeks and calling it done.

[superjames1992]

So is anyone else interested in seeing how the New England snowstorm plays out as far as the GFS upgrade is concerned? This seems to be its first big test in comparison to other modeling. Would be a good idea of seeing how it does with the track of upper level and surface features. It seems it has trended a little further east with lower totals while the Doc has stood firm.  Just something to watch for since there isn't a whole lot of anything going on down south.

 

Good point.  The Para seems to be fringing NYC with "only" 8-14" or so while the other modeling (sans the GGEM, which wasn't too far off that) gives them 18"+++.

 

Looks like the mega clipper has made here, sprinkles and 46. Lol

 

There's some severe weather in AL from it and it's about to pop a monstrous coastal.  Mega indeed.

[Dunkman]

So is anyone else interested in seeing how the New England snowstorm plays out as far as the GFS upgrade is concerned? This seems to be its first big test in comparison to other modeling. Would be a good idea of seeing how it does with the track of upper level and surface features. It seems it has trended a little further east with lower totals while the Doc has stood firm.  Just something to watch for since there isn't a whole lot of anything going on down south.

Yes I'm very interested. I haven't been particularly impressed with what I've seen from the new GFS but I haven't been following model runs very closely until the last couple weeks. It has been an impressively long stretch of boring weather.

[tarheelwx]

Which model did the best on the storm that just finished up?  Wasn't it the CMC?  Also, which model was the first to show the upcoming blizzard? 

 

My thoughts are that since the models just within the last 24-36 hours caught on to the upcoming blizzard, they are still marinating over what's to follow - does the blizzard become a 50/50 or does it peak and just keep moving. 

 

I think everything is still on the table - from SE winter storm to warm/dry. 

 

TW

[Dunkman]

Which model did the best on the storm that just finished up?  Wasn't it the CMC?  Also, which model was the first to show the upcoming blizzard? 

 

My thoughts are that since the models just within the last 24-36 hours caught on to the upcoming blizzard, they are still marinating over what's to follow - does the blizzard become a 50/50 or does it peak and just keep moving. 

 

I think everything is still on the table - from SE winter storm to warm/dry. 

 

TW

I believe the Euro had the upcoming blizzard first and from what I've seen today (which isn't a lot) it looks the best so far in depicting the evolution of the storm to this point.

[Batman]

Honestly (and this was mentioned by a met or two before) we may not be able to get much accuracy in the models until this Noreaster is behind us. Ever since the Noreaster was progged to bomb on the models, we've gone from potentially cold and snowy to warm and dry.

 

I'd wait until the middle of next week to start sticking a fork in the next two weeks and calling it done.

 

This is an important point for a couple reasons.

 

1.) With the models lack of ability to see the Current NE storm for what it will likely become just a few days out, it is nearly pointless to draw any specific conclusions for a storm that may or may not effect us a week from now.

2.) What this storm  does as it exits the NE could play a large role in what happens going forward (for better or worse).

 

It is always important to get one high impact weather system out of the way before you try to look too specifically at the next system. In this case, with the magnitude of what will  likely happen in the NE it is even more important to see what it does, where it goes, and what the after effects are.

[valkhorn]

This is an important point for a couple reasons.

 

1.) With the models lack of ability to see the Current NE storm for what it will likely become just a few days out, it is nearly pointless to draw any specific conclusions for a storm that may or may not effect us a week from now.

2.) What this storm  does as it exits the NE could play a large role in what happens going forward (for better or worse).

 

It is always important to get one high impact weather system out of the way before you try to look too specifically at the next system. In this case, with the magnitude of what will  likely happen in the NE it is even more important to see what it does, where it goes, and what the after effects are.

 

Exactly. Recall that before this winter what happened with Hurricane Ana and the giant storm in the Bering Sea really threw the pattern/models for a loop.

 

The one in New England is potentially an historic storm. Models likely aren't going to correctly see what's going on after this and our big clue is how much the models changed as soon as the noreaster showed up.

[IWC]

Well, Northern snow cover should not be an issue...

[vwgrrc]

This is an important point for a couple reasons.

1.) With the models lack of ability to see the Current NE storm for what it will likely become just a few days out, it is nearly pointless to draw any specific conclusions for a storm that may or may not effect us a week from now.

2.) What this storm does as it exits the NE could play a large role in what happens going forward (for better or worse).

It is always important to get one high impact weather system out of the way before you try to look too specifically at the next system. In this case, with the magnitude of what will likely happen in the NE it is even more important to see what it does, where it goes, and what the after effects are.

Totally agree.

BTW, when did models pick up the NE Storm? All of them picked up at the same time?

[Dunkman]

Totally agree.

BTW, when did models pick up the NE Storm? All of them picked up at the same time?

Friday for the storm hitting the NE. I'm not sure if before then the models just showed the clipper or if they showed a Miller B that went straight out to sea, but I think it was just the clipper.

[IWC]

Oh Yeah, All the fine folks that have come to American WX for the latest on the weather.  Please see the Donation BOX at the top of the screen!!!

 

The guy that runs this forum can use some HELP !!! And of coarse you seen first hand how he works hard to keep it online...

 

 

 

                I'm sure he will accept all donations. Thank you for your time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

this was a public service announcement.

[Cold Rain]

Is there any scientific evidence, any data, that supports the hypothesis that models can't forecast a pattern or events acurrately before the big storm happens and is "out of the way"?

Even after the Storm is "out of the" way, it's affecting some other part of the world, unless it just dissipates. And these are global models....

[GaWx]

Is there any scientific evidence, any data, that supports the hypothesis that models can't forecast a pattern or events acurrately before the big storm happens and is "out of the way"?

Even after the Storm is "out of the" way, it's affecting some other part of the world, unless it just dissipates. And these are global models....

 

 I don't know about that but I do wonder if that storm now being forecasted to be extreme has directly hurt the SE storm chances for the first couple of days of Feb. I wonder because things were looking better for the SE before this extreme scenario was being forecasted. The models have changed considerably including much weaker Canadian highs being modeled than earlier. With so much more energy now going into developing this storm, it is somewhat intuitive to make that connection imo since it isn't going to happen in isolation though it is hard to prove anything concrete.

 Any opinons?

 

Edit: By the way, the way I look at this strong storm assuming it goes ahead and occurs, it was always going to happen. It is just that the models had no idea about it til the last couple of days. Everything is weather is essentially predetermined to occur assuming no human intervention. It is just that the models aren't smart enough to know everything in advance. They have to catch on...it isn't that the future wx is changing. It is the models catching on and, therefore, changing their projections to match what had already been predetermined to occur.

[BIG FROSTY]

Good point.  The Para seems to be fringing NYC with "only" 8-14" or so while the other modeling (sans the GGEM, which wasn't too far off that) gives them 18"+++.

 

 

There's some severe weather in AL from it and it's about to pop a monstrous coastal.  Mega indeed.

Yes I do realize it's going to be mega in the NE, But just about 3 days ago it was going to be mega for us with a good 1-2 inches all across NC. lol.... That's what I was referring to!      I don't give a crap if it dumps on the NE or not, they always get dumped on.....

[griteater]

Was just looking at the 18z GFS Ens members.  The ones that best try to marry precip with cold dive the northern stream backside wave from Eastern Montana to Kansas.  If the northern stream wave dives east of there, say N Dakota to Missouri, it's no precip / suppressed.  If the northern stream wave dives from W Montana to Colorado, the flow over the SE backs too much, and it's cold rain.  The eye of the needle is extremely tight with this one  

[Batman]

 I don't know about that but I do wonder if that storm now being forecasted to be extreme has directly hurt the SE storm chances for the first couple of days of Feb. I wonder because things were looking better for the SE before this extreme scenario was being forecasted. The models have changed considerably including much weaker Canadian highs being modeled than earlier. With so much more energy now going into developing this storm, it is somewhat intuitive to make that connection imo since it isn't going to happen in isolation though it is hard to prove anything concrete.

 Any opinons?

I am certainly not an expert and I have no scientific evidence to present, but it has been my understanding that a large weather event in the near term can make it more difficult for the models to accurately depict what will happen in the longer term. James Spann in Birmingham has spoken about this on his blog numerous times. WRT the current NE storm, I don't know if there is a correlation to that storm blowing up and our potential next storm for next week falling apart on the models. I guess we will have to wait and see. This line of thinking would tell us that by Wednesday, we should have a much better idea of what will happen, not only next weekend, but pattern wise for the next couple weeks.

[GaWx]

I am certainly not an expert and I have no scientific evidence to present, but it has been my understanding that a large weather event in the near term can make it more difficult for the models to accurately depict what will happen in the longer term. James Spann in Birmingham has spoken about this on his blog numerous times. WRT the current NE storm, I don't know if there is a correlation to that storm blowing up and our potential next storm for next week falling apart on the models. I guess we will have to wait and see. This line of thinking would tell us that by Wednesday, we should have a much better idea of what will happen, not only next weekend, but pattern wise for the next couple weeks.

 

Hey Batman,

 I don't know if you saw this addition I made to that post:

 

 "By the way, the way I look at this strong storm assuming it goes ahead and occurs, it was always going to happen. It is just that the models had no idea about it til the last couple of days. Everything is weather is essentially predetermined to occur assuming no human intervention. It is just that the models aren't smart enough to know everything in advance. They have to catch on...it isn't that the future wx is changing. It is the models catching on and, therefore, changing their projections to match what had already been predetermined to occur."

[Cold Rain]

So if a storm blows up on the other side of the world, does that make the models less able to forecast the pattern beyond the storm?

[franklin NCwx]

So if a storm blows up on the other side of the world, does that make the models less able to forecast the pattern beyond the storm?

still means no snow for us.

[Cold Rain]

still means no snow for us.

Clearly!

[mackerel_sky]

So if a storm blows up on the other side of the world, does that make the models less able to forecast the pattern beyond the storm?

If a storm blew up on us, we couldn't get snow!

I'm all in for the 2nd, 5th, or spring!

[Met1985]

still means no snow for us.

lol your in a winter weather advisory! Your getting snow tomorrow.

[Brick Tamland]

Allan Huffman just tweeted that a band of rain could end as snow here overnight Monday.

[nomanslandva]

Is the hires NAM a different model (different logic) or is it just higher definition on the output?  Simulated reflectivity seems show decent returns tomorrow in NW NC and SWVA but that seems to not agree with the placement on the regular NAM.

[Webberweather53]

 I don't know about that but I do wonder if that storm now being forecasted to be extreme has directly hurt the SE storm chances for the first couple of days of Feb. I wonder because things were looking better for the SE before this extreme scenario was being forecasted. The models have changed considerably including much weaker Canadian highs being modeled than earlier. With so much more energy now going into developing this storm, it is somewhat intuitive to make that connection imo since it isn't going to happen in isolation though it is hard to prove anything concrete.

 Any opinons?

 

Edit: By the way, the way I look at this strong storm assuming it goes ahead and occurs, it was always going to happen. It is just that the models had no idea about it til the last couple of days. Everything is weather is essentially predetermined to occur assuming no human intervention. It is just that the models aren't smart enough to know everything in advance. They have to catch on...it isn't that the future wx is changing. It is the models catching on and, therefore, changing their projections to match what had already been predetermined to occur.

 

I'll have to conduct some more research into perhaps why this is the case, but one thing that is fairly obvious to me especially of late, is the blatant overestimation of the (positively) anomalous height field in the far North Pacific by most, if not all the model guidance (operational or ensemble) in the medium-long range... Perhaps it may be a function of the strong +PDO state that's allowing for generally faster recovery of the Pacific Jet to undercut & force a retrogression the ambient ridge that is initiated over northwestern Canada & Alaska, the ensemble guidance itself that smears out the smaller scale details in the pattern, or their poor simulation of anticyclonic wave breaking in this region of the extratropics, but time & time again this winter, I've seen prognostications for large-scale ridging over the entirety of Alaska, the Bering Sea & extreme northeastern Asia only to be replaced by anomalous short wave troughs in & around Alaska that carve out a substantial portion of the forecasted ridge. This ultimately effects their handling of attendant disturbances within the subtropical jet that are cutting underneath this high latitude blocking (i.e. disturbances don't dig nearly as far to the south in the more progressive regime) and of course the longwave pattern in the northern stream over North America...

[packbacker]

I'll have to conduct some more research into perhaps why this is the case, but one thing that is fairly obvious to me especially of late, is the blatant overestimation of the (positively) anomalous height field in the far North Pacific by most, if not all the model guidance (operational or ensemble) in the medium-long range... Perhaps it may be a function of the strong +PDO state that's allowing for generally faster recovery of the Pacific Jet to undercut & force a retrogression the ambient ridge that is initiated over northwestern Canada & Alaska, the ensemble guidance itself that smears out the smaller scale details in the pattern, or their poor simulation of anticyclonic wave breaking in this region of the extratropics, but time & time again this winter, I've seen prognostications for large-scale ridging over the entirety of Alaska, the Bering Sea & extreme northeastern Asia only to be replaced by anomalous short wave troughs in & around Alaska that carve out a substantial portion of the forecasted ridge. This ultimately effects their handling of attendant disturbances within the subtropical jet that are cutting underneath this high latitude blocking (i.e. disturbances don't dig nearly as far to the south in the more progressive regime) and of course the longwave pattern in the northern stream over North America...

I assume you are saying the west coast ridge keeps getting flattened where the 10 day modeling shows bettern ridging? Been killing us all winter.

[Webberweather53]

I assume you are saying the west coast ridge keeps getting flattened where the 10 day modeling shows bettern ridging? Been killing us all winter.

 

It's not so much the PNA ridging, but the heights in & around Alaska that have been horrendously forecasted by the models, as you get closer to verification troughs begin to "magically" appear embedded within what was once a region of solid +anoms & they are severely cutting down on the amplification, intensity, & longevity of that EPO ridge.

[packbacker]

It's not so much the PNA ridging, but the heights in & around Alaska that have been horrendously forecasted by the models, as you get closer to verification troughs begin to "magically" appear embedded within what was once a region of solid +anoms & they are severely cutting down on the amplification, intensity, & longevity of that EPO ridge.

Yep, I bet if SJ or Jon post the Euro/EPS EPO telecon model output if will show it continually try and take it negative and fail. I just checked this months EPO data and its been positive for 10 days or so now. And all modeling is backing off on taking it strongly negative.

That's why I don't think it's going to snow, countless model runs spitting out nice looking patterns that don't verify. The 7-8 day EPS look is hanging on by a thread. If this fails and the pattern reshuffles it might be after Feb 10th before it tries for another favorable look. #PDOFail