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Winter medium range model pbp I


GaWx

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That's what can happen when the energy in the SW is ejected, you have a nice tall ridge in a good spot. To bad it's on its own.

Well, the blizzard in the NE didn't show up at all until Friday. The look was always promising for something relatively big but the models never picked it up until 3 days out. If we could keep a good look I'd like our chances but even that has been hard to do.

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Burger,

Thanks. Would you post the 180 hour map, please? TIA

The track looks favorable assuming a cold enough high close enough to the north. Note that the 0C 850 line and the 546 thickness are fairly near each other. I find that to often be the case in the SE in winter. That's why I usually feel pretty good if the 546 thickness line is near or south of me. 540 thicknesses are rarely ever required with a Miller A.

 

Here is hour 180...

 

iE5XMjC.png

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Here is hour 180...

iE5XMjC.png

Burger,

Thanks. That's what I was afraid of seeing for areas at least near Atlanta and Metal just told me about it in banter. The 850's around there are above 0C, which means pretty much mainly just a big cold wet rainstorm.

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Like others have said here and folks like WxSouth have alluded to, I wonder if this pattern is hard for the models to figure out right now. Maybe why the storm getting ready to hit the northeast did not show up until 72 hours out. The models have had so many different solutions the last couple m of days. Anything is possible really. Also, like Allan Huffman said on twitter yesterday, something could pop up quickly on the models.

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Looks like it will go into the grinder but I like the direction it went. CMC might be on to something after all. If we can keep that trend of the energy cutting off later and later we will be in business.

Burger would not be surprised if we see better solutions this next week. The run to run consistency if off again it seems with some wild swings from the models.
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I'm not trying to scare the scare the living daylights out of anyone, especially since it is 10-11 days out. However, the 12Z EPS does at least suggest a chance that of a ZR producing CAD based storm 2/4-5. Nothing to panic about now. Just wanted to make you aware. OK, back to your regularly scheduled program.

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The 18z GFS is similar to the Euro. Not going to work out but a piece of energy that split off the closed low was further east than prior runs but ends up being squashed.

I'm telling you, squashed is what we want right now! There is a storm , it's just shredded, but each run of each model, it's making a little further east! Get the cold , crushed look 7-8 days out, watch the moisture increase and be farther north 9 out of 10 times !
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