NCSNOW Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looking at a Canadian clown map. What's it in mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 That's what can happen when the energy in the SW is ejected, you have a nice tall ridge in a good spot. To bad it's on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 That's what can happen when the energy in the SW is ejected, you have a nice tall ridge in a good spot. To bad it's on its own. Well, the blizzard in the NE didn't show up at all until Friday. The look was always promising for something relatively big but the models never picked it up until 3 days out. If we could keep a good look I'd like our chances but even that has been hard to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Good write up on next weekend. http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2015/01/january-28-february-1-potential-winter.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The Euro has 2-3' for NYC and BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Burger, Thanks. Would you post the 180 hour map, please? TIA The track looks favorable assuming a cold enough high close enough to the north. Note that the 0C 850 line and the 546 thickness are fairly near each other. I find that to often be the case in the SE in winter. That's why I usually feel pretty good if the 546 thickness line is near or south of me. 540 thicknesses are rarely ever required with a Miller A. Here is hour 180... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Uh it looks like the Euro might be following the CMC....not cutting off our energy and it's pushing east @123...we shall see but it's not as strong as the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Here is hour 180... Burger, Thanks. That's what I was afraid of seeing for areas at least near Atlanta and Metal just told me about it in banter. The 850's around there are above 0C, which means pretty much mainly just a big cold wet rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 00z Euro had the cutoff low centered just off the west coast of Mexico. 12z has it centered around the southern California/NV border. @150 it appears to have stopped making eastern progress...but a good step in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Like others have said here and folks like WxSouth have alluded to, I wonder if this pattern is hard for the models to figure out right now. Maybe why the storm getting ready to hit the northeast did not show up until 72 hours out. The models have had so many different solutions the last couple m of days. Anything is possible really. Also, like Allan Huffman said on twitter yesterday, something could pop up quickly on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Euro will be close. Little bit of energy was ejected off the cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This is a big step in the right direction from the Euro...took a move closer to the CMC. @168 way more moisture in TX with a light QPF tongue extending to Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looks like it will go into the grinder but I like the direction it went. CMC might be on to something after all. If we can keep that trend of the energy cutting off later and later we will be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looks like it will go into the grinder but I like the direction it went. CMC might be on to something after all. If we can keep that trend of the energy cutting off later and later we will be in business. Burger would not be surprised if we see better solutions this next week. The run to run consistency if off again it seems with some wild swings from the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Burger would not be surprised if we see better solutions this next week. The run to run consistency if off again it seems with some wild swings from the models. We will.. I still like the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah, in terms of the temperatures, the Euro is closer to the yesterday's 12z arctic blast... Not quite as cold, though, but still in the right direction. That pesky low in the Western Gulf of Mex. is kicking the cold air out on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The Euro has 2-3' for NYC and BOS. Yeah...no biggie! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm not trying to scare the scare the living daylights out of anyone, especially since it is 10-11 days out. However, the 12Z EPS does at least suggest a chance that of a ZR producing CAD based storm 2/4-5. Nothing to panic about now. Just wanted to make you aware. OK, back to your regularly scheduled program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yes! Another 10 day threat that will be 20 degrees too warm and 90% too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 There is eps support for this weekends system . Many members have a system , some must have temp issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 gfs out to 108 and the ne gets even more snow. lets see where she goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 high a bit stronger at 168 and a little more precip in the gulf over western la. and squashed thru 186. bone dry. oy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 18z GFS is similar to the Euro. Not going to work out but a piece of energy that split off the closed low was further east than prior runs but ends up being squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 East-based -NAO building by D7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 18z GFS is similar to the Euro. Not going to work out but a piece of energy that split off the closed low was further east than prior runs but ends up being squashed.I'm telling you, squashed is what we want right now! There is a storm , it's just shredded, but each run of each model, it's making a little further east! Get the cold , crushed look 7-8 days out, watch the moisture increase and be farther north 9 out of 10 times ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 East-based -NAO building by D7 Hopefully, the rest of the run doesn't torch like the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 12z GGEM Ensembles and 18z GEFS means look improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 12z GGEM Ensembles and 18z GEFS means look improved.When is the next CMC run, is it around the 0z GFS ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 When is the next CMC run, is it around the 0z GFS ? just after 12:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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