superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The Euro doesn't have a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The Euro doesn't have a storm.Sounds awesome! So in GFS vs Euro , we have Ohio valley snow -GFS and no storm-Euro!That is about as far apart as possible, who knows what to think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sounds awesome! So in GFS vs Euro , we have Ohio valley snow -GFS and no storm-Euro! That is about as far apart as possible, who knows what to think? Split the difference and call it a major winter storm for the Southeast. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sounds awesome! So in GFS vs Euro , we have Ohio valley snow -GFS and no storm-Euro! That is about as far apart as possible, who knows what to think? They need to come to a compromise and meet in mine and your backyard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The Euro last night looked very much in line with the GFS. The good news is the GEFS and Euro EPS both looked better than their OP runs. The bad news is they have all moved away from a SE snow storm signal IMHO. 6z GFS is interesting as it tries to give us in NC next Sunday. It wouldn't take much for that to be a bigger deal. Verbatim it gives a good portion of central and eastern NC 1-2 inches of snow. Just something to keep an eye on. Also we need to wait for this blizzard to roll through the NE. It'll be kind of pointless to trust any model until that lays down it's snow and positions it self to setup our 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 12z NAM simulated radar at hour 33: this type of system could be stronger, weaker, shifted, and etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Maybe grasping here, but the 6z GFS didnt look horrible to me. The threat looks to have moved up to the Feb 1st time frame. There is moisture trying to stream out way from TX, looks like it just fizzles before it gets here, but that's about the time a low try's to pop off the GA/ Carolina coasts, temps look decent, but I think we had a threat earlier in the winter and only GFS was showing it and that didnt really work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I didn't bother looking at surface temps, since it doesn't affect MBY, but here's a shot from the 12Z Hi-Res NAM which could offer some flakes to eastern NC: The 12Z GFS looks similar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 12z is interesting it shifted the cutoff low spinning further to the east. Would like to see if that keeps happening in future runs. Still a big swing and miss for us especially since that northern energy doesn't dig as much. Not as much qpf associated with it on Sunday like the 6z showed. Out to 156 so we'll see where it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 yep, 12z shows a window for snow showers late tomorrow night for central/northern nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Gotta love that the GFS went from huge arctic blast run after run to now showing above average temps for almost the entire CONUS save for the NE. #$%%%#! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Gotta love that the GFS went from huge arctic blast run after run to now showing above average temps for almost the entire CONUS save for the NE. #$%%%#! Thanks for the warning -- won't even look then .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Gotta love that the GFS went from huge arctic blast run after run to now showing above average temps for almost the entire CONUS save for the NE. #$%%%#! So shocking, I for sure thought early Feb was going to deliver. It's not like it for this winter to have these great 10+ day patterns showing up and fail to materialize. Even the EPS went this way last night. I for one am stunned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yea its weird but with the siberian low not pressing as south as modeled we dont get as big of a push from the pv.. even the cpc was picking up on the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Gotta love that the GFS went from huge arctic blast run after run to now showing above average temps for almost the entire CONUS save for the NE. #$%%%#! Is it my imagination or are what were incredibly strong (1056-60) and very large Canadian highs now showing up as just rather averaged sized Arctic highs of 1045 or under? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 12z is interesting it shifted the cutoff low spinning further to the east. Would like to see if that keeps happening in future runs. Still a big swing and miss for us especially since that northern energy doesn't dig as much. Not as much qpf associated with it on Sunday like the 6z showed. Out to 156 so we'll see where it goes from here. This potential setup for late next weekend is evolving on the models in a very similar fashion to what this past event did... For those who follow WxSouth (Robert) closely, he noted how the NAM, of all models, kicked the GFS/Euro's butt in picking up the recent baja low getting ejected out... To me, its sounding like we're heading down that same path again potentially where the global models struggle in that Day 5-7 range, then once you get inside of Day 4, the NAM leads the charge with the GFS and Euro finally joining the party by 48-72 hours out... I think for those in the Upper Southeast, especially the I-40 Cooridor and the I-85 cooridor in NC/SC...this is something that we need to keep in the back of our minds...the models may be leading us down the wrong path for the next couple days, or at least waffle back and forth...then next thing you know come mid-week, we're all back in the game... I also think we need for this upcoming East Coast Bomb to do its thing and see how it could alter the playing field... Another wild card that I have noticed in the last 3 or 4 GFS runs is the secondary storm system to affect the Northeast on Friday...that has come out of nowhere as well and has given a negative effect on our situation...one would probably like to see that be erroneous and verify much weaker... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 You can see how crappy things have trended, yeah this is the Op GFS at day 6-7 but the EPS is showing similar and so will the 12z GEFS I bet... If the bottom map from a few days ago had verified for this weekend we had potential. But the ridge is getting squashed by AK low, -EPO is gone, just a terrible setup now. Been happening all winter, no reason to think that just because it's Feb that now it would change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 CMC is a crush job for mountains and Northern NC next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On a second look it's a crush job for everyone save for eastern NC wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Is it my imagination or are what were incredibly strong (1056-60) and very large Canadian highs now showing up as just rather averaged sized Arctic highs of 1045 or under? We did Larry...I remember seeing those big ones showing like that. Now, not so much...Tells me that the models really don't know whats going on. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 CMC is a crush job for mountains and Northern NC next weekend Well, that came out of nowhere. Looks like a decent setup. It was a cutter at 00z, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Over an inch of QPF all snow I-85 west.....that's a big dog...Woof! Just shows there is still potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Over an inch of QPF all snow I-85 west.....that's a big dog...Woof! Just shows there is still potential. agreed the potential is still there for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 On a second look it's a crush job for everyone save for eastern NC wow!Burger, When you say the 12Z Canadian is a crush job for "everyone save E NC", who do you mean by "everyone"? Are you mainly talking about the rest of NC or are other SE states included? If other SE states are included, which ones and which parts? Also, what kind of track is being shown? Miller a? B? Clipper? Upper low? Other? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 agreed the potential is still there for someHow did Canadian do with last Fridays event? Wrttemps and precip? Does it have a cold bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Burger, When you say the 12Z Canadian is a crush job for all everyone save E NC, who do you mean by "everyone"? Are you mainly talking about the rest of NC or are other SE states included? If other SE states are included, which ones and which parts? TIA Sorry, mainly NC....ATL looks like it ends up with 1-2 inches of snow...north fares better. Here is a zoomed in look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 How did Canadian do with last Fridays event? Wrt temps and precip? Does it have a cold bias? Until the Euro comes out it is obviously an outlier so hard to take seriously right now. I haven't seen 5h maps but I suspect it sent out most of the energy associated with that cutoff and the phased with our northern energy but hard to tell. That one is a nice long duration event. Let's hope the Euro gives us some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Until the Euro comes out it is obviously an outlier so hard to take seriously right now. I haven't seen 5h maps but I suspect it sent out most of the energy associated with that cutoff and the phased with our northern energy but hard to tell. That one is a nice long duration event. Let's hope the Euro gives us some hope.How were temps , borderline or solid cold? Was it a wedge sig, I can't see CMC , tia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sorry, mainly NC....ATL looks like it ends up with 1-2 inches of snow...north fares better. Here is a zoomed in look Burger, Thanks. Would you post the 180 hour map, please? TIA The track looks favorable assuming a cold enough high close enough to the north. Note that the 0C 850 line and the 546 thickness are fairly near each other. I find that to often be the case in the SE in winter. That's why I usually feel pretty good if the 546 thickness line is near or south of me. 540 thicknesses are rarely ever required with a Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Over an inch of QPF all snow I-85 west.....that's a big dog...Woof! Just shows there is still potential. 2 day event also! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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