Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Monkey may leave but a gorilla is waiting behind. I think there is an event first week of Feb, I won't get snow but a big area in the SE will. Maybe like 1/28 last year. How does the EPS look for the pattern for after the storm? Or do you not have that anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 How does the EPS look for the pattern for after the storm? Or do you not have that anymore? Don't have it. But the day 10 EPS is a freezer, I bet that backs off a little though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 Has anyone looked at the 6Z GEFS? The mean is a good bit wetter than the prior 3 GEFS though not quite as wet as the three runs that ended with 6Z yest. Anyway, this run has gone back into the 0.5-0.75 range for the wettest in the E Carolinas/GA and SE AL (vs under 0.5" on the prior 3) and has 1"+ in a sig portion of the N GOM (wetter than the prior 3). Also, there's a strong enough sig to show a weak Miller A going across FL as well as a hint of WSW 500 mb flow across the SE. None of this was on the prior 3 runs. So, I'm hoping this is the start of a GEFS trend in a better direction. Anyone seen any members? There must be some really good ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Don't have it. But the day 10 EPS is a freezer, I bet that backs off a little though.So I just glanced at all of the models for last night, and there are no solutions that show a winter storm for us. But it wouldn't take much to get something going. Quite doable over the next week+. The Euro and CMC get cold and stay cold. The GFS, 0z and 6z, get cold and warm up. The CFS looks good for Feb.I'd keep this period at Yellow Alert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 So I just glanced at all of the models for last night, and there are no solutions that show a winter storm for us. But it wouldn't take much to get something going. Quite doable over the next week+. The Euro and CMC get cold and stay cold. The GFS, 0z and 6z, get cold and warm up. The CFS looks good for Feb. I'd keep this period at Yellow Alert. Did you look at the 6Z GEFS? See my post above for details. It actually looks pretty darn good (mean). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Im not even looking past five days i learned my lesson the hard way over the years with the emotional roller coster lol I feel like the models are bipolar especially para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Did you look at the 6Z GEFS? See my post above for details. It actually looks pretty darn good (mean). 6z GEFS is a train wreck. Lots of warm rainstorms and a few cold/dry members yield the mean results you see... The gfs members that have the storm don't allow the arctic boundary to sag far enough south before ejecting.. and thus the warm solutions... The problem is that all of the models that hold our storm back and allow the arctic air to settle in, shred the "storm" to nothing. Not liking the trends at all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 So I just glanced at all of the models for last night, and there are no solutions that show a winter storm for us. But it wouldn't take much to get something going. Quite doable over the next week+. The Euro and CMC get cold and stay cold. The GFS, 0z and 6z, get cold and warm up. The CFS looks good for Feb. I'd keep this period at Yellow Alert. Your speaking about just NC? Cause the 06z GEFS has many good solutions for many areas I'm the western part of the southeast. Heck an apps runner ( which only one agrees with the OP ) would favor the western areas . I think am apps runner is a bs solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Did you look at the 6Z GEFS? See my post above for details. It actually looks pretty darn good (mean). I think I was writing mine while you were posting yours. That's good news, what you wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 6z GEFS is a train wreck. Lots of warm rainstorms and a few cold/dry members yield the mean results you see... The gfs members that have the storm don't allow the arctic boundary to sag far enough south before ejecting.. and thus the warm solutions... The problem is that all of the models that hold our storm back and allow the arctic air to settle in, shred the "storm" to nothing. Not liking the trends at all.... Ten members have favorable solutions for areas west of the apps. Ala, miss , tenn and many of those members would work out for northern GA. It's a screw job for SC and NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Your speaking about just NC? Cause the 06z GEFS has many good solutions for many areas I'm the western part of the southeast. Heck an apps runner ( which only one agrees with the OP ) would favor the western areas . I think am apps runner is a bs solution I haven't looked at any ENS today...just reading what Larry and Pack wrote. I don't know how anyone can get overly excited or dejected at this point. Pretty much all options are still solidly on the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Here is how I see things right now... It's becoming clear that the first push of cold air around day 7 will not be coud enough to produce wintry precip for us... This means that if a storm comes out ahead of the arctic push in the 8/9 day time frame it will almost certainly be rain, like the GFS depicts. We need the arctic front and it's clipper to clear the east coast in the 8/9 day time frame.. while leaving the southwest energy intact. Then we need either an additional piece of northern energy to dive down and merge with the southwest low.. or the southwest low to eject on it's own in the 9/10 day timeframe(and not get shredded) to have a shot at wintry weather. Currently no models show this happening, (but we're talking 10 days and they are "close"), so who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro gets the cold air in place before the Super Bowl storm that we're talking about. Anything that happens in the next 7 days would have always been rain. The encouraging thing is that the Euro is not keeping the cold at 10 days. That has to be a positive step, right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 So yesterday 12z and 18z GFS runs had a fairly tall and wide western ridge allowing the energy to cutoff and tuck under the ridge. The 18z GEFS yesterday showed the trough axis much further west vs the OP. That trend continued at 00z last night as the ridge was not as tall or wide not really allowing the energy to cutoff. The trough axis at 00z and 06z was much further west vs the runs yesterday allowing for more of a SW flow into the SE . All we really need is the ridge to be a bit further east and we will be fine. Clearly all options are still on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 6z GEFS is a train wreck. Lots of warm rainstorms and a few cold/dry members yield the mean results you see... The gfs members that have the storm don't allow the arctic boundary to sag far enough south before ejecting.. and thus the warm solutions... The problem is that all of the models that hold our storm back and allow the arctic air to settle in, shred the "storm" to nothing. Not liking the trends at all.... I'm confused. Are there some cold enough weak Miller A members on the 6Z GEFS? Are there any that cross N FL or far SE GA with it cold enough to the north? The mean suggests that though you make it sound bad. I assume you do realize that a very weak Miller A is fine to produce a big and widespread winter storm in the SE and even optimal for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 This is new... Monday Night A slight chance of rain and snow before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Has anyone looked at the 6Z GEFS? Yes and the 0Z and at least down here they are considerably warmer than the runs from the past couple of days; not even any 30's past Tuesday the 27th and no measurable precip until Feb 4. But, that's down here .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 Here is how I see things right now... It's becoming clear that the first push of cold air around day 7 will not be coud enough to produce wintry precip for us... This means that if a storm comes out ahead of the arctic push in the 8/9 day time frame it will almost certainly be rain, like the GFS depicts. We need the arctic front and it's clipper to clear the east coast in the 8/9 day time frame.. while leaving the southwest energy intact. Then we need either an additional piece of northern energy to dive down and merge with the southwest low.. or the southwest low to eject on it's own in the 9/10 day timeframe(and not get shredded) to have a shot at wintry weather. Currently no models show this happening, (but we're talking 10 days and they are "close"), so who knows... burrel, Did you see members 1, 8, and 9? According to the ewall site, these 3 could very well be cold enough for the NW corner of SC to give you snow. The tracks are at least good. I also see #2, which is delayed and may be too warm...not sure. Regardless, it looks like there are at least 3 nice tracking members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Larry I have no idea what Burrel is talking about. I count at least 8-10 members that have snow for the SE at 216. In fact on the 92 hour snowfall maps between 192 - 288 only a few members are "cold and dry". Doesn't look like garbage to me at all. Looks really really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 burrel, Did you see members 1, 8, and 9? According to the ewall site, these 3 could very well be cold enough for the NW corner of SC to give you snow. The tracks are at least good. I also see #2, which is delayed and may be too warm...not sure. Regardless, it looks like there are at least 3 nice tracking members. Looks fine this far out, mix of apps runners, over running for SE and supressed storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks fine this far out, mix of apps runners, over running for SE and supressed storms. Yep, that's about all we can hope for with the winter we've had. I still do not like that the OP has moved away from a suppressed storm but hopefully we can reel it back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Yep, that's about all we can hope for with the winter we've had. I still do not like that the OP has moved away from a suppressed storm but hopefully we can reel it back in. The op has gone from three days of showing a winter storm, to thee runs of dry and cold to two runs of an apps runner. No reason to worried or excited given that history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Here is the GEFS 5h spaghetti plots. Here is the high pressure plots...notice the 1040's dropping down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro ensembles are mostly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 burrel, Did you see members 1, 8, and 9? According to the ewall site, these 3 could very well be cold enough for the NW corner of SC to give you snow. The tracks are at least good. I also see #2, which is delayed and may be too warm...not sure. Regardless, it looks like there are at least 3 nice tracking members. Yea, I suppose there's a couple decent one's... but the majority are to far west or too suppressed. It definitely doesn't look as good as it did a few days ago. Maybe I'm being too pessimistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Yea, I suppose there's a couple decent one's... but the majority are to far west or too suppressed. It definitely doesn't look as good as it did a few days ago. Maybe I'm being too pessimistic? Honestly, this far out, I count the suppressed ones as wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro ensembles are mostly dry. What I assumed when I saw it had dropped the PV into Kentucky, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 So in 36 hours the euro ensembles went from an eastern SE winter storm to a western SE and plains winter storm to now a colder and drier look............ Consistent eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 0z super ensemble. Interesting to note that 1/19/2003 analog on there. If you go back to 03, we had the super clipper that dropped 8"+ area wide just 4 days later. The reason I mention that is the Euro had a vigorous clipper for the previous 2 runs in the day 12-13 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Larry I have no idea what Burrel is talking about. I count at least 8-10 members that have snow for the SE at 216. In fact on the 92 hour snowfall maps between 192 - 288 only a few members are "cold and dry". Doesn't look like garbage to me at all. Looks really really good. 8 or 10 members? You must be counting on backside snow with lows that run through the apps.. good luck with that. I would say there are 3 members at most that may give anyone in NC/SC,(outside of the mountains) snow. Though I don't like the look of these three as there's no wedging and cold air is arriving just in time,(probably rain to snow with boundary layer issues at best for anyone east of the apps in these depictions. There are 6 or so members that are dry.. and then 3 or 4 members that are massive 50 degree rain storms. None of the members point to a solution that was being painted a few days ago where we had plenty of cold air out in front of the storm along with CAD, remember all the freezing rain/sleet/snow solutions being depicted all the way into columbia and on down to the coast? None of the 6z GFS members have such setups. But anyways, like I said earlier, maybe I'm being too pessimistic. Hopefully we all get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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