GaWx Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 That's a great point grit and I for one would rather have an overrunning event I agree. Many of the most widespread major SE snows have occurred as a result of overrunning usually in association with a weak Miller A. (Webber may not agree on the semantics, but that's ok.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Remember the models last week or so were honing in on January 23rd for a winter storm threat in our area and then lost it for a few days. Well, today is the 23rd and the moisture is here maybe not the winter storm it was showing but, the moisture is here. Got a feeling the same scenario will probably happen for the storm it was showing the last several days for the 2/1 & 2/2 time frame. May lose if for a while but, it will show back up.... Just have to work on getting the cold air in first so most can reap the benefits! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Euro always and has always held Baja lows back in the SW longer than what actually occurs. Stop sweating it. Look at what was projected for this weekend 7 days ago (low heading to Cuba) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Euro always and has always held Baja lows back in the SW longer than what actually occurs. Stop sweating it. Look at what was projected for this weekend 7 days ago (low heading to Cuba) You can say this in 50 pt font and it's not going to do any good. The Ji-ites will push on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 You can say this in 50 pt font and it's not going to do any good. The Ji-ites will push on. Yeah, but it's also all too often used as an excuse blow off the fact that the models aren't showing the snowstorm that everybody wants to see. Does the GFS also have the same bias? What is it showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks like less northern stream interaction on 18z run of the GFS. Looks like the pre 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks like less northern stream interaction on 18z run of the GFS. Looks like the pre 12z runs. Not going to work out on the 18z. Our northern energy started south then went due east over the lakes while our southern energy just sat around in Texas. Now cold is making a push but it's dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Holding the SW low in the general vicinity for half of the run and let the PJ take over entirely. Doubtful of this outcome but it's where the models are at right now. From 135 hrs to 231 hrs it's hardly moved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Holding the SW low in the general vicinity for half of the run and let the PJ take over entirely. Doubtful of this outcome but it's where the models are at right now. From 135 hrs to 231 hrs it's hardly moved. Is that typical at all that a SW would sit out there for 4 days this time of year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 If the southwest cutoff doesn't come out, our next best option would be for the northern stream to dive down through the Rockies to back the flow over the southeast with overrunning precip north of the arctic boundary stalled in the northern gulf...similar to the storm late last January. Last 2 runs of the Canadian had this type of solution. Here's the look on the Euro Ens Mean that would support that type of solution. I wouldn't throw my hands up @ this point, in fact, it's been pretty hilarious to watch the ECMWF ensembles continuously have to adjust northeastward w/ these pieces of energy over the northeastern Pacific & southwestern US within the last few weeks. Take for example the current system sitting of the Baja, this was projected a week ago by the Euro Ensembles to be halfway between Hawaii & the US west coast & progressively they have adjusted northeast accordingly & now it's virtually right on top of the southwestern US, you can also throw in the disturbance sitting that will be approaching California in about 72-96 hours, this was depicted to be over Hawaii, and that of course hasn't verified. The European ensembles have been trying to over amplify the anomalous ridging over Alaska, far northeastern Asia, & the Aleutians, and I would guess this is @ least partially due to the ensemble field "smearing" out any harder to detect, smaller-scale shortwave troughs emanating from eastern Asia which modify the structure of the high-latitude Rex Block (that's trying to cap energy in the southern branch of the jet) from a solid, unified mass, to one that's equivalent to swiss cheese. The verification of lower heights in the far North Pacific is what's allowing disturbances in the subtropical branch of the jet to come further north & further east than modeled as they remain more enveloped within the westerlies and the mean flow... In fact, the Ensembles have already starting to come northeastward w/ the energy in the southwestern US on Superbowl Sunday Jan 22 2014 12z EPS Feb 1 12z forecast New 12z Feb 1 forecast This comparison series is pretty telling, very nice a northeast trend... January 26 forecast.... 240 hours 216 hours 192 hours 168 hours 144 hours & then of course it's most recent forecast... Also here's the snow map from that storm in December 1958, the I-95 & US 1 corridors took the brunt of this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 18z GEFS looks much better than the 12z did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Atleast I see we get some rain showers from the clipper Monday , and on Feb 5th, we have perfect miller A track, with rain!! So, we have that going for us! 18z GFS = winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The 0z stinks! Just a clipper around the 30th, looks like nothing brewing in SW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The 0z stinks! Just a clipper around the 30th, looks like nothing brewing in SW? SW low is stronger which is good... should holds its own as the PJ pushes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 May have jumped the gun, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The 0z stinks! Just a clipper around the 30th, looks like nothing brewing in SW? SW low is stronger which is good... should holds its own as the PJ pushes in. Man he must of gotten it in record time. Looks to me like this run is going to be much better....but I can't see into the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's gonna be better this run. Trough axis is much further west of nothing else we should get a SW flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Well I guess technically it is just a clipper on the 30th....but where we ever really watching that time period or am I confused? I thought we were looking more at like Feb 2nd or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Man he must of gotten it in record time. Looks to me like this run is going to be much better....but I can't see into the future. I don't look at surface features first at this range, but the upper level setup is back to what it was showing yesterday... stronger SW wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Well I guess technically it is just a clipper on the 30th....but where we ever really watching that time period or am I confused? I thought we were looking more at like Feb 2nd or so. It's always been around Feb 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Yeah, there was a clipper on 1/30 but the energy coming out of the Dakotas diving south on the 31st might be the kicker we need this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Here it comes, early phase should help bring it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 This might be mega bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I may be jumping the gun a bit but man why is it so warm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Spoke to soon, still gets left behind, should be some overrunning event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I may be jumping the gun a bit but man why is it so warm ? Ridge is to far west, we need it over Vegas not splitting the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Trough sets up futher west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 lol that look at 5h.....energy dives down retrogrades into the SW to join that super cutoff...then energy finally comes out and doesn't quite phase then too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I may be jumping the gun a bit but man why is it so warm ?Need precip first, worry about cold later, kind of like today's "event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Amazing run for eastern TN for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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