Winter medium range model pbp I

[griteater]

Thanks.  No reason to abandon ship though.  Could be that part of it comes out or the whole thing.  I doubt the PV will press that much in the LR, either way.

 

Well, you and I are in agreement I think, in that cold is always step #1

[Cheeznado]

. Based on a few runs on a possible system 8-10 days out?

 

No, not just that, the ensemble means have backed off some as well- just saying the chances seem lower than I thought yesterday.

[SnowNiner]

No, not just that, the ensemble means have backed off some as well- just saying the chances seem lower than I thought yesterday.

 

Yeah I'd feel alot better if the ensembles were holding firm, but they're not today.  GEFS trended toward the EURO and that's a very bad sign IMO. 

[GaWx]

Well, the chance of the SW system coming out seems to have lessened considerably, so as others have said, we will probably have to rely on NW flow disturbances, and ATL rarely gets more that 1" from those.

 

Cheez,

Though you could easily end up being right, we obviously still have a very long way to go since it is still ~9-10 days out.

 

 I agree that the chance of getting 1"+ from a clipper is low. Getting something major from a clipper would seem to be practically impossible though we know it isn't impossible. Out of 39 major SN/IP producing systems since 1879 (3.5"+ SN and/or 1.5" IP), I ID'ed 32 as Miller A. Of the other 7, I found no pure clippers that resulted in 3.5"+ since 1879. I'm not counting 3/1/2009 as pure clipper as it had a very strong attendant upper low that was the cause. So, since 1879, there has been no pure clipper that produced a 3.5"+ snow or 1.5"+ IP at ATL.

 

 Anyway, I'm still holding out hope that the models go back to a major snow threat. After all, the 6Z GFS just had a beautiful one.

[mackerel_sky]

Cheez,

Though you could easily end up being right, we obviously still have a very long way to go since it is still ~9-10 days out.

I agree that the chance of getting 1"+ from a clipper is low. Getting something major from a clipper would seem to be practically impossible though we know it isn't impossible. Out of 39 major SN/IP producing systems (3.5"+ SN and/or 1.5" IP), I ID'ed 32 as Miller A. Of the other 7, I found no pure clippers that resulted in 3.5"+ since 1879. I'm not counting 3/1/2009 as pure clipper as it had a very strong attendant upper low that was the cause. So, since 1879, there has been no pure clipper that produced a 3.5"+ snow or 1.5"+ IP at ATL.

Anyway, I'm still holding out hope that the models go back to a major snow threat. After all, the 6Z GFS just had a beautiful one.

Is it true that more times than not, we want a suppressed run 7-10 days out? I remember a few if our storms went that way, like down to Cuba, 5-7 days out only to come back around as it got closer? Is this suppressed or just no southern energy , period?

[Cold Rain]

Well, you and I are in agreement I think, in that cold is always step #1

 

Most definitely.

 

Is it true that more times than not, we want a suppressed run 7-10 days out? I remember a few if our storms went that way, like down to Cuba, 5-7 days out only to come back around as it got closer? Is this suppressed or just no southern energy , period?

 

I would say yes to that, but I would also say that a suppressed storm is a lot different than no storm.  In this case, we now have no storm.

[mackerel_sky]

Most definitely.

I would say yes to that, but I would also say that a suppressed storm is a lot different than no storm. In this case, we now have no storm.

I think the current blizzard that is ongoing today, had several runs that had energy being held back, but that was wrong, so who knows

[Ji]

i hate how things vanish. This was like a no brainer

[metwannabe]

i hate how things vanish. This was like a no brainer

It's ten days out do expect the models to keep this solution locked in for ten days???? Please

[ryan1234]

I don't understand, for the life of me, why everyone is so quick to pull the plug on this system. It's still 7+ days out.

[jburns]

I don't understand, for the life of me, why everyone is so quick to pull the plug on this system. It's still 7+ days out.

 

I'd have to say it is basically the same process as getting excited by a 12" clown map 7 days out.  It's the old half full vs half empty carried to an extreme.

[vwgrrc]

Should probably lock this thread up and reopen on Monday 0z!

And everyone enjoy a proper weekend without heart attack.

[Cold Rain]

Get me an actual cold pattern showing up around 5 days or in, and then let's find a storm. All this LR business be it cold or snow or whatever hasn't verified all winter. Let's get the cold in here in 5 days and then see where we are with a storm.

[MichaelJ]

I don't understand, for the life of me, why everyone is so quick to pull the plug on this system. It's still 7+ days out.

It's called Murphy's Law

[packbacker]

Get me an actual cold pattern showing up around 5 days or in, and then let's find a storm. All this LR business be it cold or snow or whatever hasn't verified all winter. Let's get the cold in here in 5 days and then see where we are with a storm.

 

I can see your on a mission for early Feb snow.  

 

 

 

I have a hunch the EPS will come in snowy, of course we are going to need SJ or Franklin to tell us that now.

[BullCityWx]

The Euro has a 1048MB on the mean(!) over the yukon at day 75. 

[packbacker]

Well...this is what HM just tweeted.

 

12z EPS agrees with OP in terms of amplifying the PNA pattern and holding the Baja Low back. #forevernorthernstream

[metwannabe]

Well...this is what HM just tweeted.

12z EPS agrees with OP in terms of amplifying the PNA pattern and holding the Baja Low back. #forevernorthernstream

Plenty of members kick the energy and have a storm of some sort

[GaWx]

I can see your on a mission for early Feb snow.

I have a hunch the EPS will come in snowy, of course we are going to need SJ or Franklin to tell us that now.

I can see your on a mission for early Feb snow.

I have a hunch the EPS will come in snowy, of course we are going to need SJ or Franklin to tell us that now.

The 12Z EPS is fairly similar to the 0Z EPS and is mainly cold and dry though there are probably a few wet members. If this is right (way too early to know), the best hope would be for some NW clipper action for mainly modest snow or snow showers.

[griteater]

I don't understand, for the life of me, why everyone is so quick to pull the plug on this system. It's still 7+ days out.

 

It's watching each model run, each ensemble model run, trends, overall upper air patterns...it's what folks who post in here do.  No spiking balls in celebration or pulling plugs...just monitoring.  It's harmless, except for Pack and Brick

[strongwxnc]

It's watching each model run, each ensemble model run, trends, overall upper air patterns...it's what folks who post in here do. No spiking balls in celebration or pulling plugs...just monitoring. It's harmless, except for Pack and Brick

Could not agree more grit!

Well said.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[metwannabe]

I counted 30 members that have a system in the day 8-11 period. That does not include suppressed systems

[BIG FROSTY]

So what's up with the megaclipper a lot was speaking of the other day, for Monday?

[Southern Track]

It's watching each model run, each ensemble model run, trends, overall upper air patterns...it's what folks who post in here do. No spiking balls in celebration or pulling plugs...just monitoring. It's harmless, except for Pack and Brick

Not a knowledgeable as you bro, but I do the same thing. No worries yet....

[GaWx]

I counted 30 members that have a system in the day 8-11 period. That does not include suppressed systems

Metwannabe,

Indeed, there is a halfway decent qpf. So, maybe my calling it mainly cold and dry was too negative. As I did say, some members are probably wet, which you're confirming. How many of the 51 have a Miller hit? OTOH, you can't deny that this is quite a bit drier than the 18Z/0Z/6Z GEFS means, which had 1/2-1" qpf for almost all. In contrast, the 12Z and 0Z EPS have mainly 0.25-0.50". Also, the 12Z GEFS mean has only 0.25-0.50". So, the 12Z means weren't too good and hopefully don't signify a drying trend. Regardless, we have a very long way to go.

[metwannabe]

Metwannabe,

Indeed, there is a halfway decent qpf. So, maybe my calling it mainly cold and dry was too negative. As I did say, some members are probably wet, which you're confirming. How many of the 51 have a Miller hit? OTOH, you can't deny that this is quite a bit drier than the 18Z/0Z/6Z GEFS means, which had 1/2-1" qpf for almost all. In contrast, the 12Z and 0Z EPS have mainly 0.25-0.50". Also, the 12Z GEFS mean has only 0.25-0.50". So, the 12Z means weren't too good and hopefully don't signify a drying trend. Regardless, we have a very long way to go.

Larry,

No doubt it was a bad 12z day. However the GGEM ensembles look really good, not sure how good they are anyway. Yesterday's eps run had the carolinas in the hot zone while today it's back to the west Texas, oaklahoma, Arkansas and tenn. The 12z GEFS snow mean was about the same which does not matter this far out . I'm not sure an accurate conclusion can be made from one set of runs ( going just off the 12z set)

Ill go back and look to see how many millers I can find . To me though being 8-10 days out ( 9-11 going by the eps) we should expect some bad runs on all guidance. We are not gonna lock into a solution this far out and hold it all the way through. So much depends on the PV placement and how much it tries to flex. So we should expect many up and downs in the coming days. The NH changes have not even taken place yet and won't for 3/4 more days so until we get a better handle on those changes I would expect many swings on Op runs AND their enesmbles

[tnweathernut]

Metwannabe,

Indeed, there is a halfway decent qpf. So, maybe my calling it mainly cold and dry was too negative. As I did say, some members are probably wet, which you're confirming. How many of the 51 have a Miller hit? OTOH, you can't deny that this is quite a bit drier than the 18Z/0Z/6Z GEFS means, which had 1/2-1" qpf for almost all. In contrast, the 12Z and 0Z EPS have mainly 0.25-0.50". Also, the 12Z GEFS mean has only 0.25-0.50". So, the 12Z means weren't too good and hopefully don't signify a drying trend. Regardless, we have a very long way to go.

Probably about 8-10 for varying parts of the southeast just eyeballing snow maps, and without going into more detail.

[metwannabe]

Probably about 8-10 for varying parts of the southeast just eyeballing snow maps, and without going into more detail.

Yeah that's about right and there many overrunning type events as well

[griteater]

If the southwest cutoff doesn't come out, our next best option would be for the northern stream to dive down through the Rockies to back the flow over the southeast with overrunning precip north of the arctic boundary stalled in the northern gulf...similar to the storm late last January.  Last 2 runs of the Canadian had this type of solution.  Here's the look on the Euro Ens Mean that would support that type of solution.

 

 

[metwannabe]

If the southwest cutoff doesn't come out, our next best option would be for the northern stream to dive down through the Rockies to back the flow over the southeast with overrunning precip north of the arctic boundary stalled in the northern gulf...similar to the storm late last January. Last 2 runs of the Canadian had this type of solution. Here's the look on the Euro Ens Mean that would support that type of solution.

That's a great point grit and I for one would rather have an overrunning event