Winter medium range model pbp I

[BullCityWx]

Yeah it does, I sure am hoping for better results than that storm though...LOL.

 

It is cold though!

 

Sure would be something if we carbon copied that winter. Warm DEC, cold beginning of january, thaw, another cold shot followed by that light snow and then the knockout punch. 

[rduwx]

Sure would be something if we carbon copied that winter. Warm DEC, cold beginning of january, thaw, another cold shot followed by that light snow and then the knockout punch. 

 

I'd be fine w/ that recipe.

[Shawn]

GGEM was a pretty big hit for some btw. Best it's looked for KCAE.. but it screws a lot of people over.

 

[SnowNiner]

Here's something that makes me think 12Z is whacked out.  From 216 to the end of the run CLT never gets above freezing.  Either that's an outlier or we're going into a VERY cold and dry (I guess northern stream dominated) pattern for the foreseeable future.

[mackerel_sky]

GGEM was a pretty big hit for some btw. Best it's looked for KCAE.. but it screws a lot of people over.

That has 1989 written all over it!

[Webberweather53]

That has 1989 written all over it!

 

More like December 1958...

[magpiemaniac]

That has 1989 written all over it!

 

Was CLT in the snow hole in 1989?

[Brick Tamland]

Here's something that makes me think 12Z is whacked out.  From 216 to the end of the run CLT never gets above freezing.  Either that's an outlier or we're going into a VERY cold and dry (I guess northern stream dominated) pattern for the foreseeable future.

 

Is that why it gets suppressed, because it is so cold?

[SnowNiner]

Is that why it gets suppressed, because it is so cold?

 

I'm not sure...I'd guess it's the PV too far south and too much northern stream energy combo.  Somebody with more knowledge than me would need to chime in. 

[mackerel_sky]

Was CLT in the snow hole in 1989?

Yep, dry with high clouds , MYR got like 10-12 inches ! CLT , had highs in teens , low 20s, iirc

[Cold Rain]

Is that why it gets suppressed, because it is so cold?

 

Not sure why I'm showing you this, but look at the map below.  It's the 252 12z GFS 500 mb (that means way high up in the sky) anomaly (that means change from normal -- red means above normal and blue means below normal).  The PV (very cold blue thing) has dropped south as ridging off the west coast (warm red thing, shown by the squiggly black line) and ridging over the top has developed.  The PV is forced south.  You see the red X in the SW?  That is energy way up high in the sky that can create a storm.  That is going to move east at some point.  You see the very tight lines all bunched together inside of the red circle?  That is the meat grinder that people talk about.  The flow way up in the sky is fast and confluent.  When you have energy way up in the sky, entering into a flow that is fast and confluent, it gets squashed so that it can't create an upper level environment favorable for lift and clouds and precipitation.  There's a lot more technical info that one could expound on here, but basically, that's the gist of it in this case.

 

Is the model correct with all of these feature placements?  Probably not.  There will probably be a completely different solution tomorrow.

 

[franklin NCwx]

Is that why it gets suppressed, because it is so cold?

no, it has to do with the northern jet being too strong and diving ahead of our southwest energy.

[bhwhiz]

Not sure why I'm showing you this, but look at the map below.  It's the 252 12z GFS 500 mb (that means way high up in the sky) anomaly (that means change from normal -- red means above normal and blue means below normal).  The PV (very cold blue thing) has dropped south as ridging off the west coast (warm red thing, shown by the squiggly black line) and ridging over the top has developed.  The PV is forced south.  You see the red X in the SW?  That is energy way up high in the sky that can create a storm.  That is going to move east at some point.  You see the very tight lines all bunched together inside of the red circle?  That is the meat grinder that people talk about.  The flow way up in the sky is fast and confluent.  When you have energy way up in the sky, entering into a flow that is fast and confluent, it gets squashed so that it can't create an upper level environment favorable for lift and clouds and precipitation.  There's a lot more technical info that one could expound on here, but basically, that's the gist of it in this case.

 

Is the model correct with all of these feature placements?  Probably not.  There will probably be a completely different solution tomorrow.

 

gfs_z500a_nhem_42.png

 

Thanks so much for this. I learned a ton reading that.

[mackerel_sky]

Not sure why I'm showing you this, but look at the map below. It's the 252 12z GFS 500 mb (that means way high up in the sky) anomaly (that means change from normal -- red means above normal and blue means below normal). The PV (very cold blue thing) has dropped south as ridging off the west coast (warm red thing, shown by the squiggly black line) and ridging over the top has developed. The PV is forced south. You see the red X in the SW? That is energy way up high in the sky that can create a storm. That is going to move east at some point. You see the very tight lines all bunched together inside of the red circle? That is the meat grinder that people talk about. The flow way up in the sky is fast and confluent. When you have energy way up in the sky, entering into a flow that is fast and confluent, it gets squashed so that it can't create an upper level environment favorable for lift and clouds and precipitation. There's a lot more technical info that one could expound on here, but basically, that's the gist of it in this case.

Is the model correct with all of these feature placements? Probably not. There will probably be a completely different solution tomorrow.

gfs_z500a_nhem_42.png

Very well done! I think Brick can even understand that.

[SnowNiner]

Not sure why I'm showing you this, but look at the map below.  It's the 252 12z GFS 500 mb (that means way high up in the sky) anomaly (that means change from normal -- red means above normal and blue means below normal).  The PV (very cold blue thing) has dropped south as ridging off the west coast (warm red thing, shown by the squiggly black line) and ridging over the top has developed.  The PV is forced south.  You see the red X in the SW?  That is energy way up high in the sky that can create a storm.  That is going to move east at some point.  You see the very tight lines all bunched together inside of the red circle?  That is the meat grinder that people talk about.  The flow way up in the sky is fast and confluent.  When you have energy way up in the sky, entering into a flow that is fast and confluent, it gets squashed so that it can't create an upper level environment favorable for lift and clouds and precipitation.  There's a lot more technical info that one could expound on here, but basically, that's the gist of it in this case.

 

Is the model correct with all of these feature placements?  Probably not.  There will probably be a completely different solution tomorrow.

 

 

Thanks CR I learned a bit on that as well.  Never understood exactly what the "meat grinder" was.  That overall setup looks pretty similar to what we've been seeing though.  What do we need to look for at 5h to get good runs?  The PV not quite as far south?

[GaWx]

Webber,
Thanks for your writeup on Miller A v B. I think your and my definition of a Miller A/B are going to yield different results in some cases. I still consider the 6Z GFS' weak low/overrunning to be Miller A rather than B. When I think of Miller B, I think of a low that comes well inland toward the Appalachians and with a totally new low redeveloping offshore the E US. That's ok. We don't have to agree on this as it probably isn't black and white.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/2010/12_18/

[Cold Rain]

Thanks CR I learned a bit on that as well.  Never understood exactly what the "meat grinder" was.  That overall setup looks pretty similar to what we've been seeing though.  What do we need to look for at 5h to get good runs?  The PV not quite as far south?

 

Here's the image at 240 yesterday...the times aren't exactly apples to apples, but you can see the strong energy in the SW and the PV, which is farther north and not as oppressive.  If the PV is to big and too far south, the energy will not remain robust enough to create precipitation.  But if the PV doesn't press too far, the energy can survive and produce upglide over the cold dome, fed into the area by high pressure.  That lift can create a very nice overrunning event.  It's always a delicate balance in the SE.

 

Even when the eye of the needle is bigger, it's still a needle.

 

[Cold Rain]

Euro's going to do what it did on the last run.  That's the them of the day...of the winter, really.  Let's hold the energy in the SW until the cold leaves.

[SnowNiner]

Here's the image at 240 yesterday...the times aren't exactly apples to apples, but you can see the strong energy in the SW and the PV, which is farther north and not as oppressive.  If the PV is to big and too far south, the energy will not remain robust enough to create precipitation.  But if the PV doesn't press too far, the energy can survive and produce upglide over the cold dome, fed into the area by high pressure.  That lift can create a very nice overrunning event.  It's always a delicate balance in the SE.

 

Even when the eye of the needle is bigger, it's still a needle.

 

 

Great thanks.  I figured it had to be the PV.  Yeah you can see the difference.  If the 12Z is right, it's going to be COLD.  Nice to see that at least cold may not be the fail this time. 

[Met1985]

Storm or no storm the euro is dropping the hammer on February 1st. What a trough.

[burgertime]

Euro's going to do what it did on the last run. That's the them of the day...of the winter, really. Let's hold the energy in the SW until the cold leaves.

Yep just a clipper but in that scenario it could produce for us.

[metwannabe]

Yep just a clipper but in that scenario it could produce for us.

It's so bad we are holding out hope for clippers to produce.

12z GGEM ensembles FTW

[packbacker]

Euro's going to do what it did on the last run. That's the them of the day...of the winter, really. Let's hold the energy in the SW until the cold leaves.

We can start another how cold will it get thread. We aren't complete losers, are we....

[griteater]

Euro's going to do what it did on the last run.  That's the them of the day...of the winter, really.  Let's hold the energy in the SW until the cold leaves.

 

Nice write-ups Cold Rain.  Yeah, if no kick out of the SW energy, it's a new witch hunt for a new day.

[metwannabe]

Nice write-ups Cold Rain. Yeah, if no kick out of the SW energy, it's a new witch hunt for a new day.

Even if it kicks it would have been crushed. Too much northern stream. Let's hope that's wrong

[Cold Rain]

Even if it kicks it would have been crushed. Too much northern stream. Let's hope that's wrong

 

There's always too much northern stream in the LR.  Unfortunately, the energy in the SW has been tough to get the boot this year.  But who knows.

[Cold Rain]

We can start another how cold will it get thread. We aren't complete losers, are we....

 

You start that one.   And yes...yes we are.

 

Nice write-ups Cold Rain.  Yeah, if no kick out of the SW energy, it's a new witch hunt for a new day.

 

Thanks.  No reason to abandon ship though.  Could be that part of it comes out or the whole thing.  I doubt the PV will press that much in the LR, either way.

[Cheeznado]

Well, the chance of the SW system coming out seems to have lessened considerably, so as others have said, we will probably have to rely on NW flow disturbances, and ATL rarely gets more that 1" from those.

[metwannabe]

Well, the chance of the SW system coming out seems to have lessened considerably, so as others have said, we will probably have to rely on NW flow disturbances, and ATL rarely gets more that 1" from those.

. Based on a few runs on a possible system 8-10 days out?

[mackerel_sky]

There's always too much northern stream in the LR. Unfortunately, the energy in the SW has been tough to get the boot this year. But who knows.

That's always the problem, except for when it rains! ! I think the cold is being overdone, the models just aren't picking up on the lack of cold air yet!