strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Big snow N of I-85 but no matter the surface reflection right now. The setup is consistent.Yep! 10" + range! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Big snow N of I-85 but no matter the surface reflection right now. The setup is consistent. And that is the main thing to be concerned with at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS is farther east with the low near Hawaii, and that's what helps to kickout the low in the southwest states, while the Euro buries the wave off Baja. The GFS has more of a nino like wave train through the Pacific which is what we'd like to see to keep the southern stream waves moving along. Euro GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Definitely a warmer run but that's irrelevant at this point. The set up is repeating with each op run right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Definitely a warmer run but that's irrelevant at this point. The set up is repeating with each op run right now. Yeah I think it's because the track was more inland this time. Lots of track wobbling going to happen for sure in the next 7 days. Just hope to keep the set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Its hardee for Energy to get held back when soi is really negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Just a 10 day op run. Setup is great for a snowstorm, but once these things start tracking more NW than you want rarely do they trend back south. Only for the MA crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Definitely a warmer run but that's irrelevant at this point. The set up is repeating with each op run right now. We were saying this just 7 days ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS is farther east with the low near Hawaii, and that's what helps to kickout the low in the southwest states, while the Euro buries the wave off Baja. The GFS has more of a nino like wave train through the Pacific which is what we'd like to see to keep the southern stream waves moving along. Euro http://i61.tinypic.cm.gif GFS http://i61.tinypic.com/9fmrkj.g/img] Any clue why the EPS is so much colder then the GEFS. Usually it's the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This setup reminds me of Presdients day 2 storm ( i actually think the 18z gfs is more realistic). Just hoping we do better than 2 inches of ip. This system has potential to be a blockbuster. No doubt about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Actually, what's amazing is despite their seemingly vast differences in timing, the end result is similar on both, a huge winter storm over the southern tier. Although I will say, the synoptic pattern w/ the core of the high-latitude blocking over the far North Pacific & tendencies of the NAO/AO thus far this winter, (among other things) are leaning heavily in favor of a Miller B or overrunning event here, a Miller A is virtually off the table unless the Atlantic decides to cooperate... 12z GFS 6-10 day z500 analogs are very close to that "500mb preceding major southern US overrunning events" package. (i.e. virtually the biggest Miller B/Overrunning type storms I could think of since the 1950s... December 8-10 1958, February 9-11 1973, January 5-8 1988, December 22-24 1989, December 4-5 2002, January 29-30 2010, & January 8-10 2011) The MJO has been moving abnormally slow through the Western Hemisphere of late however, its 200hpa -VP reflection will be in the vicinity of that "pivotal" 30-60E longitude around the start of February, & it also looks like a CCKW will lead to another anomalous surge in convection near the International Dateline within what appears to be a much more organized, wavenumber 1 upper level circulation w/ considerably less destructive interference from the Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent. I'm certainly starting to get the impression, especially of late (aside from of course the more obvious interannual KW variance), that the residence time between the core of the Australian & Asian Monsoons is a favored period for resurgence/reorganization of a +ENSO event... The current event started to crank up late last winter & spring as a slow moving, high amplitude Pacific MJO pulse & series of CCKWs instigated the formation of a fairly massive Oceanic Downwelling Kelvin Wave... ...then E Hem/IO interference kicked in over the summer as the Indian/Southeastern Asian Monsoon sprang to life, and we saw yet another period of intensification around the equinox, only to experience more interference as we've reached the peak of the Australian Monsoon. Very interesting Agreed w/ the bolded. This pattern is definitely not favorable for a pure miller a snowstorm for NC. That said, the combo of the Arctic hp over SE Canada (w/ a core near -40C) and a large slow moving open STJ wave, could produce a multi-day event with several different precipitation types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Agreed w/ the bolded. This pattern is definitely not favorable for a pure miller a snowstorm for NC. That said, the combo of the Arctic hp over SE Canada (w/ a core near -40C) and a large slow moving open STJ wave, could produce a multi-day event with several different precipitation types. Agree as well. I can see this being a number of leading pulses of energy riding along arctic front rather than a singular robust Miller A storm. Regardless, that can put down a ton of snow in a more widespread fashion compared to a miller A scenerio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Agreed w/ the bolded. This pattern is definitely not favorable for a pure miller a snowstorm for NC. That said, the combo of the Arctic hp over SE Canada (w/ a core near -40C) and a large slow moving open STJ wave, could produce a multi-day event with several different precipitation types. Agree as well. I can see this being a number of leading pulses of energy riding along arctic front rather than a singular robust Miller A storm. Regardless, that can put down a ton of snow in a more widespread fashion compared to a miller A scenerio. Yeah, strong Pacific highs naturally induce this kind of setup because they force an anomalously large/strong cold core trough in the vicinity of southeastern Canada/Great Lakes. This of course allows cross polar flow to envelope North America east of the Rockies and confluence in & around the induced/predominant eastern N America trough base = rising lower level heights over Ontario, Quebec, New England, & the Great Lakes (CAD high), not to mention split flow, w/ amplification of the southern branch underneath the Rex Blocking over Alaska, the Aleutians, & extreme northeastern Russia... The 500mb precursor to "classic" NC Miller Bs (1-3 day lead) is definitely there Even if you extrapolate the precursor out another week in advance, the primary features (burgeoning PNA & SCAND ridge) are still there. We're definitely headed in the right direction. Even though N America could use some work, Eurasia looks absolutely fantastic... I have little doubt even @ this premature juncture, we'll probably end up facing a Miller B/Overrunning type storm (if any). It's going to take some dramatic alterations in the pattern configuration to convince me otherwise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Any clue why the EPS is so much colder then the GEFS. Usually it's the other way around. Hard to say Pack, they have a similar look up north. Out west, the GFS Ens has actually been trending more toward kicking out the wave in the southwest. The low northeast of Hawaii is stronger and moves east more on the GFS Ens compared to the Euro Ens and is acting to kick out the wave in the southwest...so, big diff there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Hour 78 GFS 0z, still trying to bring some clipper love to NGA and W Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Hour 78 GFS 0z, still trying to bring some clipper love to NGA and W Carolinas Yea it moved the clipper track a little further south, but areas on the TN border of NC would get near warning criteria snow if the GFS is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS steady as she goes with the early Feb setup...good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS steady as she goes with the early Feb setup...good run Agree grit...Has an icy look this run. EDIT: Ice to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS steady as she goes with the early Feb setup...good run Yeah looks good. It sends out weak pulses of energy for a long duration event. QPF and temp profiles a bit wonky as expected but the setup is golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yes, this is somewhat bizarre with the energy strung out, but at this range who cares. We still have a winter event out there! The consecutive runs for both models are mounting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 another ridiculous run, the consistency is encouraging that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Canadian says let's do this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Wow at the 00z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS Ens Mean looks locked in with the Op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Getting at least somewhat convinced of chance of frozen/freezing precip here in north GA a week from Sunday. Perfect pattern with cold air in place for a couple days, southern branch system with a weak low skimming along the GOM coast. Pretty good consistency with the ensemble runs- biggest question for us is snow or ZR/IP? I am rooting for the former, not a huge fan of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Getting at least somewhat convinced of chance of frozen/freezing precip here in north GA a week from Sunday. Perfect pattern with cold air in place for a couple days, southern branch system with a weak low skimming along the GOM coast. Pretty good consistency with the ensemble runs- biggest question for us is snow or ZR/IP? I am rooting for the former, not a huge fan of ZR. Multiple types make sense. Down around ATL, KCAE, (KMCN?), KAGS, I could see this turning dicey in a not so good way with some ZR. Just too early to tell like you said. The high pressures being shown, the cold air source, the pv sagging south... it's going to be hard for a lot of the SE to miss out if a system does come out.. then we have to figure out just how much SW energy comes out and in what size/waves/ (all at once I doubt now). Even at this range, the cold is probably underdone. If huge chunks decide to come out in succession, we could still get the historic Winter storm in the SE. Whatever the precip type may be. Just so many options to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Canadian says let's do this... CMC looks a lot like the GFS earlier today...low pressure after low pressure coming up. That would be a very long duration event for the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Out to 192 and I don't think the Euro is going to get it done tonight. PV not as robust. No energy diving down yet. Still enough time to change but doesn't look as good as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 The earlier maps suggest the the Euro will probably come in colder but drier with more NW flow cutting off the moist Gulf/WSW flow at 500 mb. Let's see.. But it is just one operational run out ten days. ** edit: Well, maybe it will be good. Hold everything! Edit 2: No, too dry. 500 mb flow looks like it won't quite go moist WSW. But wow, it looks cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Euro is a clipper this go round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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