BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Murphy to Manteo at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Nice looking storm on day 9 of the euro. It has a nice banana high stretching from the Plains to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Noticing the Euro still hold to its bias of not progressing storms through the STJ and holding for the longest time over the SW. It's doing it here with the Super Bowl Sunday storm where a bulk of the energy stays cut off (and actually retrogrades a bit) off the SW coast. Looks like it's still going to manage a weak disturbance over the gulf coast despite this, and give us a significant snow storm by 222 hrs. See what I mean about not having to thread the needle here? EDIT: Make that a MAJOR snow! Wow! Just a colossal difference in the wave handling there over the southwest. Of course, this IS ten days out, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Wow, so it looks different from the GFS and still ends up crushing NC. Game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Just a colossal difference in the wave handling there over the southwest. Of course, this IS ten days out, lol So, we can still get a major storm whether it holds the majority of the energy back or brings it out. Pretty good storm signal when you can score in multiple ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 So, we can still get a major storm whether it holds the majority of the energy back or brings it out. Pretty good storm signal when you can score in multiple ways.don't worry, it will find some way to Shaft us after stringing us along for a few more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 don't worry, it will find some way to Shaft us after stringing us along for a few more days. Yeah, but the difference here is we are used to losing in multiple ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yeah, but the difference here is we are used to losing in multiple ways.taking bets now, cutter or fizzler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 euro has the 987mb low bombing offshore of the obx at 240hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 euro has the 987mb low bombing offshore of the obx at 240hr Yeah, turns into a real MECS for the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 So, we can still get a major storm whether it holds the majority of the energy back or brings it out. Pretty good storm signal when you can score in multiple ways. I hear ya.....but the GFS way is much more workable...that was more of a random dart on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I hear ya.....but the GFS way is much more workable...that was more of a random dart on the Euro Yeah, no doubt. My post was mostly in jest and probably should have been in banter. I really hope the Euro bias is at play here. It would be a kick to the groin if that low cut off and migrated to the baja at the same time a 1050+ H was marching into the plains, with a parent high in the northeast. I really hope the GFS is onto something. The Euro ensembles will be interesting to see how many bring it out vs how many leave it back. I still think this is the best "look" we have seen all winter, and there isn't even a close second in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looks to me like the EPS is keeping that energy in the southwest and just spinning there. Could be what HM was talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I don't have access to 500mb vort maps for that range for the Euro but I imagine there was a small amt of energy broken off from the main low for the northern branch to phase into. For a pure PJ to spark a GOM low it has to dig more than what it's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Back up to 27 members of the EPS getting KCAE with snow. In fact, quite a few try to bury us. The mean is heavier down this way in response.. and oddly the control run is lighter for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I don't have access to 500mb vort maps for that range for the Euro but I imagine there was a small amt of energy broken off from the main low for the northern branch to phase into. For a pure PJ to spark a GOM low it has to dig more than what it's showing.It did look like something small broke off but just goes to nothing in the jet once getting to AZ or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Huge snowfall mean for Carolina on the 12z eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Huge snowfall mean for Carolina on the 12z eps I highly suggest some of that into deep SC to be ZR/Sleet also counted as snow. AL even looks good on some EPS members. Now, since we are so far out, hopefully we can keep everyone from cliff-diving from some of the horrible runs we are going to see over the next couple days while things get figured out on the OP runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I know this is pretty simplistic, but I think a lot of the good things that can happen hinge on whether or not the energy comes out (GFS) vs. getting left behind (Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I know this is pretty simplistic, but I think a lot of the good things that can happen hinge on whether or not the energy comes out (GFS) vs. getting left behind (Euro). It will probably come out, (Euro bias) Then cut up west of us. lol Wouldn't surprise me in the least, the way this winter been so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I know this is pretty simplistic, but I think a lot of the good things that can happen hinge on whether or not the energy comes out (GFS) vs. getting left behind (Euro). Even if the euro holds it back as long as it send a little chunk good things can happen just like the OP showed us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 RAH long term discussion. **I'll take any kind of wintery precip I can get .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...LATE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MIDLEVEL FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OFSUBSIDENCE ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 40SAND LOWER 50S. IN THE ENSUING NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AN INITIALSHORT WAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAYNIGHT...GRAZING NORTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWEDQUICKLY BY ANOTHER REINFORCING IMPULSE ON TUESDAY...BUT DETAILS ANDTIMING ISSUES THROW A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST AT THISPOINT. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOISTURE THAT THEYBRING WITH THEM...WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...BUTONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES AND AT THIS POINT WILL BE LIMITING POPS TOAROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. IF SUFFICIENT MOISTUREWITH THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE SOMELIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN THE PRE-DAWN TO EARLYMONDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WARM INTO THE UPPER30S BY MID MORNING. WILL HAVE A SMALL POP FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAYAREA-WIDE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO PERHAPS SOME LOWER50S SOUTHEAST.COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHTAND MINS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND FREEZINGSOUTH. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING BUT ALSO LESS POTENTIALFOR PRECIP WITH THE SECOND IMPULSE DIGGING TOWARDS THE AREA ONMONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING SLIGHTCHANCE POPS LIMITED TO MONDAY NIGHT. IF WE GET PRECIP...THERE COULDBE A CHANGE OVER TO A MIXTURE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ASTEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THEFORECAST TUESDAY FOR NOW GIVEN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY WITH TIME INTHE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE FROM 40 TO 45.THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHTWARMUP EXPECTED TOWARDS LATE WEEK AS HEIGHTS INCREASE WITH RIDGINGALOFT AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILLSTRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID 40S...WARMING TO THE UPPER 40S TOLOWER 50S THURSDAY...WHICH IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Even if the euro holds it back as long as it send a little chunk good things can happen just like the OP showed us True, but it's been 1,442 days since Nashville has recorded an inch of snow. This is the longest stretch since records started being kept in 1884. I'd like to see it come out just to give them a better opportunity at an inch, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Huge snowfall mean for Carolina on the 12z eps Are you sure about that? All I have is 1" at CLT. It's been more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Are you sure about that? All I have is 1" at CLT. It's been more impressive. It's over 3-4 inches in the west and 1-2 in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Are you sure about that? All I have is 1" at CLT. It's been more impressive. I'm guessing some of the members might have the snow post-D10. Looks like about 1" pre-D10 here. EDIT: Yeah, looking at the 50-member stamps on WB, it looks like a lot of members have the storm in the D11-12 timeframe. 2"+ covers most of the state with 3" extending from about Durham to Hickory and 4" just north/west of Greensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I know this is pretty simplistic, but I think a lot of the good things that can happen hinge on whether or not the energy comes out (GFS) vs. getting left behind (Euro). Actually, what's amazing is despite their seemingly vast differences in timing, the end result is similar on both, a huge winter storm over the southern tier. Although I will say, the synoptic pattern w/ the core of the high-latitude blocking over the far North Pacific & tendencies of the NAO/AO thus far this winter, (among other things) are leaning heavily in favor of a Miller B or overrunning event here, a Miller A is virtually off the table unless the Atlantic decides to cooperate... 12z GFS 6-10 day z500 analogs are very close to that "500mb preceding major southern US overrunning events" package. (i.e. virtually the biggest Miller B/Overrunning type storms I could think of since the 1950s... December 8-10 1958, February 9-11 1973, January 5-8 1988, December 22-24 1989, December 4-5 2002, January 29-30 2010, & January 8-10 2011) The MJO has been moving abnormally slow through the Western Hemisphere of late however, its 200hpa -VP reflection will be in the vicinity of that "pivotal" 30-60E longitude around the start of February, & it also looks like a CCKW will lead to another anomalous surge in convection near the International Dateline within what appears to be a much more organized, wavenumber 1 upper level circulation w/ considerably less destructive interference from the Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent. I'm certainly starting to get the impression, especially of late (aside from of course the more obvious interannual KW variance), that the residence time between the core of the Australian & Asian Monsoons is a favored period for resurgence/reorganization of a +ENSO event... The current event started to crank up late last winter & spring as a slow moving, high amplitude Pacific MJO pulse & series of CCKWs instigated the formation of a fairly massive Oceanic Downwelling Kelvin Wave... ...then E Hem/IO interference kicked in over the summer as the Indian/Southeastern Asian Monsoon sprang to life, and we saw yet another period of intensification around the equinox, only to experience more interference as we've reached the peak of the Australian Monsoon. Very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18Z GFS is going to be a beast, gearing up at 210. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18Z GFS is going to be a beast, gearing up at 210. Tracks the SLP through ATL, cold rain except for NW NC, big snows for VA and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Tracks the SLP through ATL, cold rain except for NW NC, big snows for VA and north. Big snow N of I-85 but no matter the surface reflection right now. The setup is consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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