SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Last year's February storm was modeled pretty much from 8 days out IIRC. Larry was all over that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Last year's February storm was modeled pretty much from 8 days out IIRC. Larry was all over that one. Yeah, I can think of others. 1996, 2003 PDII, 2004, 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I85Greenville Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Last year's February storm was modeled pretty much from 8 days out IIRC. Larry was all over that one. Yeah, he did the, "And that's FOUR runs in a row showing measurable wintry precip on the EURO." for each model run. I was looking over that thread last night, fantasizing. Maybe he can start that again soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I disagree slightly there. The BIG ones almost always are consistently modeled. Medium level events are the ones we'll lose and they'll come back. wasn't the feb 12 storm last year sort of like this? I remember seeing a signal for the storm pretty far back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yeah, I can think of others. 1996, 2003 PDII, 2004, 2009 The wave in the southwest really resembles 2003 PDII, but colder on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Soo....is that a good low over the great lakes or a bad one? I see the nice high pressure in a nice spot, but there is also a low pressure in the GL. That showed up on this weekend's event early on too when it was cold. That one is most likely irrelevant. There's a big HP in the NE and another building in from central Canada. I wouldn't sweat that little L up there at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yeah, I can think of others. 1996, 2003 PDII, 2004, 2009 Even 1993 was well known for being picked up early. Everyone knew it was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Somehow the GEFS is better than the Op. I like how the Greenland low that has been rotting all winter in Hudson Bay has slid over to eastern Quebec. Ugghh- I hate getting sucked back in though. Probably should sign back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 CMC is out to 225...it's almost in line with the GFS. Looks a little warmer as most of the cold air is in the west. That being said it has a 1048 and 1052 high dropping into the states as well as 1036 in NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Ugghh- I hate getting sucked back in though. Probably should sign back up. You do that and burns will drop the ban hammer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Somehow the GEFS is better than the Op. I like how the Greenland low that has been rotting all winter in Hudson Bay has slid over to eastern Quebec. Ugghh- I hate getting sucked back in though. Probably should sign back up. Don't do it!! EDIT: 12zgfs is showing 2" of precip over mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 If we step back for a minute and look at day 7 (realistic range for a model); we have the big highs building down from Canada and a GL low (progressing NE) that helps drive the cold southward. This setup is what we need to see in upcoming runs. The details of the potential storm are going to drive us mad for the next few days. I think it's prudent to focus more on what is needed to deliver the required cold. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_168_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=168&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150122+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Somehow the GEFS is better than the Op. I like how the Greenland low that has been rotting all winter in Hudson Bay has slid over to eastern Quebec. Ugghh- I hate getting sucked back in though. Probably should sign back up. I want to see it colder, but good storm signal, QPF, and track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 If we step back for a minute and look at day 7 (realistic range for a model); we have the big highs building down from Canada and a GL low (progressing NE) that helps drive the cold southward. This setup is what we need to see in upcoming runs. The details of the potential storm are going to drive us mad for the next few days. I think it's prudent to focus more on what is needed to deliver the required cold. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_168_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=168&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150122+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Very good post. We need the players on the field first before we can get the touchdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I want to see it colder, but good storm signal, QPF, and track Yea GEFS just looked alright for the cold with the storm. One thing is the GFS OP was very borderline for anyone south of 40 at the onset of that system....so GEFS is probably picking up on that which is it looks so border line. You would think with all those highs floating around models won't pick up on how much cold is getting over and around the Apps until a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 We're not depending on a certain storm to occur for this to happen, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I want to see it colder, but good storm signal, QPF, and track If we get +PNA/-EPO with a solid HP to our NW and SLP tracking to our SE and we still get rain, during the heart of winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 We're not depending on a certain storm to occur for this to happen, right? Thinking the same thing. Not reliant on others storms, or a long strings of ifs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 We're not depending on a certain storm to occur for this to happen, right? It's the butterfly effect man. We need a thunderstorm to occur down in Brazil on day 6 at 1pm; then it's game on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 We're not depending on a certain storm to occur for this to happen, right? The low (PV) moving to eastern Quebec, the +PNA and -EPO is the biggest things, IMO. Well, along with the southern stream energy coming out and not getting stuck in Cali, like it has all winter. Oh yeah, without blocking to keep things suppressed we have to rely on perfect west coast ridge placement, otherwise this could track up fannies. One more thing, we need a strong HP, 1040+, weak 1032 won't get the job done. And the HP has to beat the SS energy, we can't have the SS energy beat the HP setting up over the lakes. One last thing, we need a whole lot of luck. Did I mention the problems the lack of blocking brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 We're not depending on a certain storm to occur for this to happen, right?We were depending on tomorrow's storm to fail, so we are right on track ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 If we get +PNA/-EPO with a solid HP to our NW and SLP tracking to our SE and we still get rain, during the heart of winter.... I like where we are with the sw wave on the GFS at least. In absence of a stable block, we have to time the cold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Here's where the GGEM ends up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 You do that and burns will drop the ban hammer. I should probably ban all of you in an attempt to save your lives. I can't believe you're all once again doing the 10 day polka. Even the great and powerful John Wow, who one day will probably have his likeness carved into the side of a hill or an old tree somewhere, has already mentioned 1993. It wouldn't help though. You would all just go to a different board and further spread the sickness. Therefore: I commit these poor souls to the atmospheric sea. May God have mercy on their souls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Here's where the GGEM ends up: Failed +PNA, ridge off the west coast. I would think we wouldn't have to wait 10 days to determine if we are going to have a solid +PNA/-EPA, you would think by mid Tues/Wed next week we will have an idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GGEM is phasing the northern stream in out west. Big slow moving storm, but more of an ice or rain look for the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GGEM is phasing the northern stream in out west. Big slow moving storm, but more of an ice or rain look for the SE Failed +PNA, ridge off the west coast. I would think we wouldn't have to wait 10 days to determine if we are going to have a solid +PNA/-EPA, you would think by mid Tues/Wed next week we will have an idea. I've noticed all winter the CMC has tended to keep the cold in the west only to fold to the GFS and Euro....It could be right but I like where it's sitting right now. Has the overall look just the track is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Going back to the indices: There is little spread for the AO going negative --Great Little spread on the NAO going to slightly positive --which some say is ok EPO looks to be solidly negative around Feb 1st There is little spread for the PNA going back positive --But there are half the runs that are showing slight negative, neutral, or just slightly positive. This could be our biggest (but not only) wild card Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Noticing the Euro still hold to its bias of not progressing storms through the STJ and holding for the longest time over the SW. It's doing it here with the Super Bowl Sunday storm where a bulk of the energy stays cut off (and actually retrogrades a bit) off the SW coast. Looks like it's still going to manage a weak disturbance over the gulf coast despite this, and give us a significant snow storm by 222 hrs. See what I mean about not having to thread the needle here? EDIT: Make that a MAJOR snow! Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Noticing the Euro still hold to its bias of not progressing storms through the STJ and holding for the longest time over the SW. It's doing it here with the Super Bowl Sunday storm where a bulk of the energy stays cut off (and actually retrogrades a bit) off the SW coast. Looks like it's still going to manage a weak disturbance over the gulf coast despite this, and give us a significant snow storm by 222 hrs. See what I mean about not having to thread the needle here? EDIT: Make that a MAJOR snow! Wow! Yessir. That's the hammer, no needle needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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