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Winter medium range model pbp I


GaWx

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Well if we can't get something out of the look just past 200 hours on the 12z GFS I don't what else we can do. It's about to be a big big storm. 

 

It was early but the ridge looked like it was nice and tall and in the right place. 

 

It's going to be a loooonnnng several days of model watching for this one. 

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or keep packbacker from getting his model subscription again

 

I heard my name...you guys need me to sign back up :-)  

 

I still have AmWx's model page, support you guys/Allan.  I haven't looked at the surface map and won't until 24 hours to said rain storm...oh I mean snow storm.

 

The question isn't whether we get snow with this look, the question is whether we get the look.  I already know the answer to that question....

post-2311-0-90427000-1421945789_thumb.pn

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Just look at the fetch of moisture.  It may not come out as one huge storm at the start but a string of low pressure setting up a long duration event.  That's the ticket for deep south snow.

 

 

 

Soo....is that a good low over the great lakes or a bad one?  I see the nice high pressure in a nice spot, but there is also a low pressure in the GL.  That showed up on this weekend's event early on too when it was cold. 

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I gotta say, the models have really honed in on this threat over the past several days.  would not surprise me for them to lose it as we get inside 200 hrs or so only for it to show up again closer to the event.  seems like it happens every time we have a big ticket storm.

 

I disagree slightly there. The BIG ones almost always are consistently modeled. Medium level events are the ones we'll lose and they'll come back. 

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I disagree slightly there. The BIG ones almost always are consistently modeled. Medium level events are the ones we'll lose and they'll come back. 

true, but i think itll be tough for the models to stay consistent with this one (IF it is our big dog) 230+ hrs out.  the look will change for the worse over the next week, but as long as we get the cold modeled consistently I won't mind seeing the qpf fluctuate.

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