Wow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Nice look, deep and south. Need the cold air to come through for us. 18z says go big or go home. I try not to weenie out on what the models are saying this far in advance but I just checked out the individual panels for the 18z GEFS and, boy, does that setup look primed for a major storm. Out the 240 hrs, there are several differing configurations of the pattern but nearly every one looks like a prime setup for a significant event. Most members are bringing down a 1055mb+ HP in with a split flow configuration. It's beautiful. Even better, the Euro ensembles are on board as well. IOW.. this ain't one of those "thread the needle" type of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Nice look, deep and south. Need the cold air setup to come through for us. 18z says go big or go home.I feel that's the biggest difference between the 10 day storm Feb1-3, and the dud for Friday ! We liked the Friday storm and said worry about cold later, feb storm has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I feel that's the biggest difference between the 10 day storm Feb1-3, and the dud for Friday ! We liked the Friday storm and said worry about cold later, feb storm has it I always worry about cold first, so we'll see how this shakes out going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I try not to weenie out on what the models are saying this far in advance but I just checked out the individual panels for the 18z GEFS and, boy, does that setup look primed for a major storm. Out the 240 hrs, there are several differing configurations of the pattern but nearly every one looks like a prime setup for a significant event. Most members are bringing down a 1055mb+ HP in with a split flow configuration. It's beautiful. Even better, the Euro ensembles are on board as well. IOW.. this ain't one of those "thread the needle" type of storms. Regardless of what the numbers say, we have a true +PDO/+ENSO flow going right now with the storm on Friday, then what the models look like going forward. We've had many years where we didn't have a prayer getting that look out west. The Eastern Canada and Greenland pattern is what has been killing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I always worry about cold first, so we'll see how this shakes out going forward Bing freaking go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Regardless of what the numbers say, we have a true +PDO/+ENSO flow going right now with the storm on Friday, then what the models look like going forward. We've had many years where we didn't have a prayer getting that look out west. The Eastern Canada and Greenland pattern is what has been killing us. That LP over the lakes this month has been hanging out like cousin Eddy. Ruining everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 00z gfs says congrats mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Nice run of the 00z GFS. Deep south overrunning snow and ice with the big STJ wave that comes out next weekend, then big cold afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Quite the storm signal on the 00z GFS Ensemble. Not as cold as I'd like to see, but setup is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Bing freaking go. I always worry about the cold first too. Just a couple of days ago, many were not concerned about the cold but the lack of precipitation coming far enough north. Well now GSP has a 100% chance of rain Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Now the models are doing what they done all winter.. they say what winter storm next weekend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's not much but here's (part of) RAH's discussion last night: THE SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVELIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE BACK EDGE OF A DEFORMATION BAND MAYCLIP THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...CONTINUING THE CHANCE OFRAIN...OR EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THESYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER40S...SO EVEN IF A CHANGEOVER OCCURS...THE IMPACTS WOULD AGAIN BENIL.&&.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AS OF 335 AM THURSDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THEUPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING AHEADOF A STRONG DISTURBANCE DIVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVERVALLEY REGION. THE DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAYNIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGHOVER THE EASTERN US TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WONT HAVEMUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND THE AMOUNT OF QPF THAT MAY BEGENERATED WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED VORT MAXREACHES. MODELS CURRENTLY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND THEECMWF GOES AS FAR AS TO PRODUCE WHAT WOULD BE SNOW SHOWERS ONTUESDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THAT IT ISNORTHWEST FLOW AND THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THEGUIDANCE. WHILE SHORT LOVED...THE SHOW OF COLD AIR WILL BENOTICEABLE AS THICKNESSES DIP BACK BELOW 1270M...WHICH SHOULD RESULTIN TEMPS IN HIGHS IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S.THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK BUT THELONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO STILL FAVOR SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHINGOVER THE EASTERN US AND TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 06z is an ice storm for SC, parts of NC. 00z EPS backed off slightly around SC also, but it's still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Now the models are doing what they done all winter.. they say what winter storm next weekend....The 6z I looked at , had a storm, but it was rain on the 1st or 2nd, then a monster snow and ice storm for the Carolinas on the 3rd and it basically snows/ ices for next two days!!! Great run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The 6z I looked at , had a storm, but it was rain on the 1st or 2nd, then a monster snow and ice storm for the Carolinas on the 3rd and it basically snows/ ices for next two days!!! Great run! There is a surface low that tries to track inland, and then another pops off the coast or so. Still 10/11 days away from us. Not sure if it looks quite right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Giddyup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Still going,and going ang going! Great look, but it's 11+ day op run, but the high looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Mack wishful thinking man. The models cannot even get a storm right 3 days out. I was reading on the main forum were Don S was talking about the gfs wild swings from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Mack, it's a devastating ice storm for many. I'd rather it stay North of my area. It's far away, but the ice is definitely an option down this way. Not sure if this dual low thing is legitimate or not. Seem's it remain mostly snow without the inland one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 06z EW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Mack, it's a devastating ice storm for many. I'd rather it stay North of my area. It's far away, but the ice is definitely an option down this way. Not sure if this dual low thing is legitimate or not. Seem's it remain mostly snow without the inland one. I would imagine it's having trouble showing the transfer at this range. Right now I just want it to continue to show cold and precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I would imagine it's having trouble showing the transfer at this range. Right now I just want it to continue to show cold and precipitation. Quite possibly. At 500mb it seems like it closed and then got recaptured or something? Not quite enough experience to work all of that out. It ends up screwing many of us in the SE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Mack wishful thinking man. The models cannot even get a storm right 3 days out. I was reading on the main forum were Don S was talking about the gfs wild swings from run to run.No doubt, but wishfull thinking is all we got this winter! And the GFS has had this storm for 5-6 days in a row , in some form or fashion, so it's consistant and the Euro has had it , but dropped it to a sheared mess last night, and the models have ensemble support, so maybe this one will stick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 No doubt, but wishfull thinking is all we got this winter! And the GFS has had this storm for 5-6 days in a row , in some form or fashion, so it's consistant and the Euro has had it , but dropped it to a sheared mess last night, and the models have ensemble support, so maybe this one will stick? The EPS wasn't the worst. Still had a Winter storm for many of us, more so from the Upstate,NE GA, TN (Possibly), NC. Still some big ones in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Mack wishful thinking man. The models cannot even get a storm right 3 days out. I was reading on the main forum were Don S was talking about the gfs wild swings from run to run. Don S is right about that! For RAH, the 00z GFS precip total went from .12" in the 1/30 thru 2/7 timeframe.... to 2.81" total for the same period on the 06z (per MeteoStar) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Last GFS run was still nasty for NC. It didn't have the huge snow, but ice with snow on top would be much worse as far as the impact on roads and power. Still a big storm there either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Don S is right about that! For RAH, the 00z GFS precip total went from .12" in the 1/30 thru 2/7 timeframe.... to 2.81" total for the same period on the 06z (per MeteoStar) Yeah some really wild swings with qpf from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Don't bother much with the surface reflections... at this range just look at the overall setup here. It's a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Don't bother much with the surface reflections... at this range just look at the overall setup here. It's a good one. ....You mean I cant bet on QPF 240 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Don't bother much with the surface reflections... at this range just look at the overall setup here. It's a good one. You guys in the Upstate,NE GA, NC are in an amazing spot this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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