AirNelson39 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Someone start a new thread for this, game on for the foothills and mtns of NC at the least. I would have started a thread earlier this evening but I've been mobile all day so haven't been able too. I knew this thing could only trend colder and I don't think it's done either. "The storm that had almost everyone lined up at the cliff" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 thanks. This is certainly something else. I might try to figure out a place in Boone to stay. Could easily become Asheville's storm if we get colder, though. We got more QPF toward south, but we don't have Boone's elevation. EDIT: Euro clown gave Asheville 7.4 inches and Boone 7.9 inches. This is what I mean when Boone got advantage of elevation even though QPF is lower. Realistic, Asheville got 4 inches from this run considering we get less time of full-snow profile and the fact we're one of the driest areas in WNC. If this is all-snow event, then mountains surrounding Asheville would jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Could easily become Asheville's storm if we get colder, though. We got more QPF toward south, but we don't have Boone's elevation.Dude your fine, as long as ur east of the blue ridge. Once snow gets going in the mtns it dont stop. Edit: Your in a valley with mtns all around that helps trap low level cold too. An hey im just telling you my obs from all my life no disrespect. Lol i mean west im east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Someone start a new thread for this, game on for the foothills and mtns of NC at the least. I would have started a thread earlier this evening but I've been mobile all day so haven't been able too. I knew this thing could only trend colder and I don't think it's done either. "The storm that had almost everyone lined up at the cliff" I personally would wait until after the 12z GFS tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The south and east escarpment and mountains in particular for this setup. I'm feeling pretty good (lucky!) about staying up at nearly 5400 feet for a ski trip. Hopefully cooler trends continue and wouldn't mind more moisture either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Someone start a new thread for this, game on for the foothills and mtns of NC at the least. I would have started a thread earlier this evening but I've been mobile all day so haven't been able too. I knew this thing could only trend colder and I don't think it's done either. "The storm that had almost everyone lined up at the cliff"the thread is really already started. If it is a storm for the mountains that is what that thread is for so to not clutter up the board with multiple threads for our snow events. Also as much as has changed the past 24 hours who knows what this storm will look like in another 24 hoursm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NAM out to 24hr. Precip exploding in TX. Let's see what the NAM does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NAM is a little colder for eastern TN and northern NC at 36 with precip expanding into Arkansas Mississippi and Alabama. Looks like the GL disturbance is weaker this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 If you go by the sounding, it should be snowing in Charlotte by 12z on Friday, if you believe the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS was just blah. It also saw the 1028 high that hangs around till the very last second and then once precip moves in it's outta here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 And down goes the GFS with the clipper. Nice 500 mile shift in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 What an epic run, LOL The clipper, as burger said, looks awful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looks more interesting around 240 FWIW. Split stream with a large southern disturbance, a BIG high, 50/50, and hints of a -NAO. Euro looks interesting around this time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looks more interesting around 240 FWIW. Split stream with a large southern disturbance, a BIG high, 50/50, and hints of a -NAO. Euro looks interesting around this time too. Clown map spits out over a foot of snow for the eastern half of NC by hour 312. MMM...Fantasy Snow!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Clown map spits out over a foot of snow for the eastern half of NC by hour 312. MMM...Fantasy Snow!!!! A little dot of 18" just south of Pitt County per Allan's maps, not bad. Better than I've seen on some of the wildest ensemble members this winter so far. Book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 The 12Z EPS looks absolutely marvelous with a Miller A/overrunning suggested on the bottom of a very large/cold Arctic outbreak. The precip. window start seems to have moved about 1/2 a day with the precip. threat window starting late on 1/31 and ending early 2/3. Total 72 hour qpf for days 10-13 is a whopping 0.50-1" for virtually the entire SE! For that far out in time, that is a very strong wet signal and it is wetter than the 0Z EPS. 850's are about 1 C colder than the 0Z EPS. The mean suggests a major snow threat for virtually all of TN/NC except SE NC as well as far N MS/AL/GA/SC. Below that in north and central MS/AL/GA, much of the rest of SC, and SE NC would potentially be most threatened with IP/ZR in addition to any SN.The clown (beware as it counts all wintry precip. as accumulating SN!!!) is snowier than the 0Z EPS. Here are some highlights/heavier amounts: 3" at James' place and 2.5" at Brick's yard/CR's castle/NE GA's home. ASVL gets 3" and Charlotte nearly gets 3". Knoxville gets 2". The 1" line gets all of the way down to Chris' caboose in MCN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The 12Z EPS looks absolutely marvelous with a Miller A/overrunning suggested on the bottom of a very large/cold Arctic outbreak. The precip. window start seems to have moved about 1/2 a day with the precip. threat window starting late on 1/31 and ending early 2/3. Total 72 hour qpf for days 10-13 is a whopping 0.50-1" for virtually the entire SE! For that far out in time, that is a very strong wet signal and it is wetter than the 0Z EPS. 850's are about 1 C colder than the 0Z EPS. The mean suggests a major snow threat for virtually all of TN/NC except SE NC as well as far N MS/AL/GA/SC. Below that in north and central MS/AL/GA, much of the rest of SC, and SE NC would potentially be most threatened with IP/ZR in addition to any SN. The clown (beware as it counts all wintry precip. as accumulating SN!!!) is snowier than the 0Z EPS. Here are some highlights/heavier amounts: 3" at James' place and 2.5" at Brick's yard/CR's castle/NE GA's home. ASVL gets 3" and Charlotte nearly gets 3". Knoxville gets 2". The 1" line gets all of the way down to MCN. Does it have blocking like the Op Euro is showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Does it have blocking like the Op Euro is showing? You're going to need to keep those subscriptions cancelled. Maybe that is what turns the year around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Like Larry mentioned, there are some absolute crush jobs on the ensembles around day 10 this run. Some of them show feet of snow in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 You're going to need to keep those subscriptions cancelled. Maybe that is what turns the year around. So Pack jumped and cancelled his subscriptions...funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Does it have blocking like the Op Euro is showing? Pack, Regarding the mean EPS day 10: The EPO/AO blocking look similarly very nice (awesome -EPO) but Greenland still has cool anomalies. We could work with this even if the NAO stays positive. Example: the awesome 1/1988 massive SE winter storm, which was also during a Nino. I wouldn't sweat it as the EPS is still showing huge potential..it "knows" there's no -NAO on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Pack, Regarding the mean EPS day 10: The EPO/AO blocking look similarly very nice (awesome -EPO) but Greenland still has cool anomalies. We could work with this even if the NAO stays positive. Example: the awesome 1/1988 massive SE winter storm, which was also during a Nino. I wouldn't sweat it as the EPS is still showing huge potential..it "knows" there's no -NAO on the mean. Sounds great, a +PNA/-EPO/-AO will work, just need it supreseed and a cold air delivery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Major ATL SN and/or IP: NAO/AO: blue means both neg.; red means both positive 2/12-3/2014 NN +0.8/+0.6 1/9-10/2011 MLN -0.3/-3.4 2/12/2010 SEN -1.1/-4.8 3/1/2009 WLN +1.0/+2.3 1/2-3/2002 NN -0.5/0 3/13/1993 NP +0.1/+1.7 1/18/1992 SEN -0.7/-0.1 1/7/1988 SEN +0.5/+0.1 1/22/1987 MEN -1.0/-1.7 3/24/1983 SEN +0.1/-1.6 1/12-14/1982 NN 0/+0.8 2/17-18/1979 NN -0.1/-0.2 1/9/1962 NN +0.6/+1.8 3/11/1960 NN -0.4/-3.1 2/15/1958 SEN -0.2/-1.9 2/26/1952 WEN +0.1/-1.7 Major ATL ZR: 3/2/1960 NN +0.1/-0.4 3/9/60 NN -0.2/-2.8 1/18-9/1962 NN +0.2/+2.8 12/24-5/1962 NN -1.9/-0.5 1/9-10/1968 NN -0.7/-1.8 3/25/1971 MLN +0.3/+0.4 1/7-8/1973 SEN -1.1/+0.1 2/6-7/1979 NN -1.1/-1.6 1/22-23/2000 SLN -0.7/-0.4 1/28-30/2000 SLN +0.4/+3.5 1/28-9/2005 WEN 0/-2.1 12/14-5/2005 WLN -0.5/-2.1 2/12/2014 NN +0.8/+0.6 It appears that as long as the NAO stays +1.0 or lower, it is quite doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GaWx - you guys might be ale to get away with a +NAO, but it kills us, as evidence by this winter. The worst combination we can have for Feb is a +NAO/+ENSO, which is what we are staring at, see below... http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NC_Snowfall.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 OP 18z GFS buries NC with the Feb 1-2 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Big snowy solution per 18z GFS for almost all of SC... in fact.. everyone sees Winter weather of some sort. I counted around 27 members of the EPS that are in agreement. Some were massive amounts even down here in KCAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Per the 18Z GFS and 12Z EPS: wow! We could very well be looking at an epic period of wintry precip. followed by intense cold from two highs, especially if there is sig. SN/IP on the ground (all covering the period 1/31-2/6). This would almost certainly be enough to make this a great winter from many people's perspective. That's often all it takes to make a great SE winter. By the way, the precip. generally lasts 24+ hours on the 18Z GFS. Edit: this is obviously still mainly for entertainment and for the record since it is still 11 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The storm has a Feb 2010 look to it. I believe that storm was shown 10 or so days out, then shoved down to Cuba, then came back about perfect for the majority of us. Referenced storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GEFS trend loop at 240 hrs honing on on the the deep southern wave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GEFS trend loop at 240 hrs honing on on the the deep southern wave... Nice look, deep and south. Need the cold air setup to come through for us. 18z says go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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