burgertime Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Clipper is cutting off. If it can keep heading south this could get very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The UKMET was wide right and way OTS at 12z. Precip didn't get north of the NC/VA border. It does tend to be a bit suppressed in general, though.LOL the Ukmet is comical in these situations most of the time, then has a moment of holy crap what was I thinking. I'm really hoping the Nam and Euro solutions are over amped and we can ride middle of the road type setup here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 00z GFS very close to a big one for RDU with the clipper on the surface due to it cutting off and creating an ULL. Gotta watch this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Damn, the GFS is close to snow here at hr 72. Looks like snow for the border counties and the northern foothills (N/W of INT or so). That's two runs in a row of colder temps. **Haven't looked at BL temps** I don't remember a coastal in Jan that has rain for so many. Odd winter continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 00z GFS very close to a big one for RDU with the clipper on the surface due to it cutting off and creating an ULL. Gotta watch this one. Just looking...meh. Any other winter this would be fun to track, would watch models come in. We know how this is going play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I don't remember a coastal in Jan that has rain for so many. Odd winter continues. Rockin' January! The 00z GGEM is coming in more neutrally tilted early in its run compared to the 12z run. Could be interesting for someone. EDIT: The storm is booking it, too, which would help some. Good hit for SW VA and NW NC. Better run than 12z, for sure. The LP tracks farther west than I'd like, however. 925 mb temps are actually below freezing from CLT to Durham N/W. Much colder at the surface, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 End of the month is still looking rather interesting with a split flow pattern developing and an attempt at some N Atlantic ridging nosing its way in per the GFS. It's been picking up on this for the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Rockin' January! The 00z GGEM is coming in more neutrally tilted early in its run compared to the 12z run. Could be interesting for someone. EDIT: The storm is booking it, too, which would help some. Good hit for SW VA and NW NC. Better run than 12z, for sure. The LP tracks farther west than I'd like, however. 925 mb temps are actually below freezing from CLT to Durham N/W. Much colder at the surface, as well. This is a huge snowstorm for mountains if we can get LP to track little farther east to allow some cold air in. Tonight's trend from 00z models are encouraging for those in western Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 This is a huge snowstorm for mountains if we can get LP to track little farther east to allow some cold air in. Tonight's trend from 00z models are encouraging for those in western Piedmont. And we still have PLENTY of time for this thing to trend colder. As far as this thing has come NW I think we start to see a small but gradual shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The day 10/11 storm is the best looking one of all the possible systems to come. Much more likely to workout given this winter and the pattern (cad/stj). Too bad it's day 10 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 End of the month is still looking rather interesting with a split flow pattern developing and an attempt at some N Atlantic ridging nosing its way in per the GFS. It's been picking up on this for the past few runs. Best looking potential all year, easily. Hoping this continues to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 850's look just at touch colder at hr70 on euro...lets see were she goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 WOW~ The drunk DOC must be super freakin' drunk tonight! Its dramatically colder at 2m for most the SE. Don't get hopes up yet, its still a bit warm for snow, but listen to this...Its VERY close to snow, if not some rain/snow mix of Central and Western TN with 2m 33-35 and 850's near -1 to -2c and some ok qpf from mem to bna. For NC is remarkable how much colder this run is at 2m. near 35 or even down to 33 from RDU *it appears* WEST to the mtns, where they are at 32. 850's are ABOVE 0c tho. I mean, this is like 2-4 degrees colder this run..IMHO thats a big jump in a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Good trends folks!!! Its not perfect but, some can maybe "Thread The Needle". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 LMAO, Euro actually pasted some snow on clown maps this time around for WNC. What a HUGE turn around! EDIT: Euro crushes high-elevation areas, actually. Some of those peaks are above 850 mb and there are spots of less than 0C. Other areas in WNC is very, very close to major winter storm with juicy QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The Euro is damn close to starting off as snow here. Hell, the clown has 5.2". LOL, clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I have NEVER seen such a jump on this model with the cold like this folks...no ****...oops... no joke..I am a little perplexed. Old run for ATL was like 42 degrees....new run is like 37 or 38 by SAT AM at 2m. This is gonna have some snow for TN, maybe NGA and NAL and NC MTNS might be crushed if this is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I have NEVER seen such a jump on this model with the cold like this folks...no ****...oops... no joke..I am a little perplexed. Old run for ATL was like 42 degrees....new run is like 37 or 38 by SAT AM at 2m. This is gonna have some snow for TN, maybe NGA and NAL and NC MTNS might be crushed if this is right. Haha, it never takes GSO above 33 for the storm. About how Snowmageddon went. Front-end snow dump, then 33/rain. Maybe it'll happen again. It's a long-shot, but the 00z models have made huge shifts in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Sorry for like acting out tonight, but I honestly have never seen such a drop on this model in 1 run...Its really amazing. I know it doesn't show any "snow" for N BAMA or NGA, but I bet there is snowflakes in the air by Sat am. Nothing accumulating, but with 850's around -2c and 2m temps like 36-38 degrees, I would say its very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Haha, it never takes GSO above 33 for the storm. About how Snowmageddon went. Front-end snow dump, then 33/rain. Maybe it'll happen again. It's a long-shot, but the 00z models have made huge shifts in that direction. There might be some IP/ZR if enough cold air gets trapped in there. Kuddos for the NAM And GFS sniffing that out tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 There might be some IP/ZR if enough cold air gets trapped in there. Kuddos for the NAM And GFS sniffing that out tonight. 10-4. BTW, the 00z NAVGEM is massively colder at 00z. Might start off N NC as snow and certainly the mountains. It was a torch at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm banking on Wake Co. getting some back-end flurries or a trace as the low moves out, at 90 hours 0C line is all the way to I-95 with -2 0c temps over most of NC...if only that were in place before the system....NW NC got lucky this run as it kept right at 0c near the boarder at onset... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Sorry for like acting out tonight, but I honestly have never seen such a drop on this model in 1 run...Its really amazing. I know it doesn't show any "snow" for N BAMA or NGA, but I bet there is snowflakes in the air by Sat am. Nothing accumulating, but with 850's around -2c and 2m temps like 36-38 degrees, I would say its very possible. I don't think we can blame you for that! That was massive, massive change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Chris, how much qpf are we talking in the mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Just a nuts run *trends, all started by the NAM* I new, given the look of the upper levels and the strong track and strength of the SFC low that some level or levels of the atmosphere had to be colder than the models were showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I would really like where Im sitting if I was in Boone if this run is right. Heavy wet snow! 6 inches plus. Now if we can get it to trend a little colder at 850 in the foothills... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Chris, how much qpf are we talking in the mountains? 0.6 north side to 0.85 south side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 0.6 north side to 0.85 south side thanks. This is certainly something else. I might try to figure out a place in Boone to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 the comma head at 90hrs is exactly what would give Northern Wake Co. a trace or more for us central NC folks, 0.1-0.2" on the back end of the storm with the cold air mixing in I wouldn't be surprised to see flakes falling. Largely track/precip dependent so would take a miracle but it's not impossible. Best-case for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I would really like where Im sitting if I was in Boone if this run is right. Heavy wet snow! 6 inches plus. Now if we can get it to trend a little colder at 850 in the foothills...I wouldn't be worried at all. I like where were currently sitting it wouldint take much to turn into a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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