superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Interesting, the trend all winter has been weaker and further east inside 4 days, let's see if this storm bucks that trend. I was reading through the Feb 19, 2012 thread. It's good weenie motivational material. The storm was progged either with a perfect track, but no cold air, or going inland on most models. Countless posts with "congrats NOVA/DC". Then, inside three days it trended way south and we got snow. In addition, it had the customary D9-D10 crushjob on the Euro to get everyone excited initially before the models went to hell and back inside of five days. Looks like the Euro was the first model to come back towards the final solution about 60-72 hours out, so we need some model miracles either tonight or tomorrow at noon. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I was reading through the Feb 19, 2012 thread. It's good weenie motivational material. The storm was progged either with a perfect track, but no cold air, or going inland on most models. Countless posts with "congrats NOVA/DC". Then, inside three days it trended way south and we got snow. In addition, it had the customary D9-D10 crushjob on the Euro to get everyone excited initially before the models went to hell and back inside of five days. Looks like the Euro was the first model to come back towards the final solution about 60-72 hours out, so we need some model miracles either tonight or tomorrow at noon. LOL. can you post a link to the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm gonna cash out with this and see you guys in February! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 can you post a link to the thread? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32679-feb-18-20-2012-discoanalysis/ Yeah, I love looking back at old threads sometime. It's fun to see all the Days of our Lives drama in the prior days with the reactions to the model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 How did the ensemble look for the mtns? I still think we are in for good snow storm despite the slightly warm look for us atm. I can't recall the Mtns ever starting as heavy snow and going over to rain, it's always the other way around when both rain and snow are involved. Boone looks fine. The mean is 4" for this system, only 2/50 without snow on the 12z EPS mean. Precip is just under 0.8", plenty to work with...I don't think elevated areas in the Appalachians should be worried about seeing only rain. Accumulation 1"+ probability is around 70-80% for the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32679-feb-18-20-2012-discoanalysis/ Yeah, I love looking back at old threads sometime. It's fun to see all the Days of our Lives drama in the prior days with the reactions to the model runs. If you want another similar scenario take a look at the Christmas storm from 2010, another similar series of events, LR bomb, nothing, nothing, big storm 2 days out. WNC is still in this folks. Stay strong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The 00z NAM takes the LP inland up through S GA to E SC to E NC. Nice run for WV and SE PA. Even DC rains. Looks like snow-to-rain for the NC mountains. EDIT: Yeah, Met, back over to some NW snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Nam is a front end thump of snow for the mtns before 850's go above freezing. It did trend colder for longer. Then it turns the storm into a 95 runner!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The 00z NAM takes the LP inland up through S GA to E SC to E NC. Nice run for WV and SE PA. Even DC rains. Looks like snow-to-rain for the NC mountains.Looks like we start as snow then ice then back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Northern mtns stay all snow it looks like. The balsams hang onto freezing 850 temps for awhile too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's funny at hr 63 on the Nam there's a small sliver of 850's at 0c in the upstate as moisture is moving in. It's quickly gone at 66. Probably a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Northern mtns stay all snow it looks like. The balsams hang onto freezing 850 temps for awhile too.the balsams will get smoked for sure. Yeah James that would be nice with some back end snow thumping away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's funny at hr 63 on the Nam there's a small sliver of 850's at 0c in the upstate as moisture is moving in. It's quickly gone at 66. Probably a blip. The RaleighWX clown for the 00z NAM has 1-2" for GSP, FWIW. 1-2" in NW NC on down to GSO, too, and down the foothills to about Shelby into NW SC and NE GA. Didn't see it, personally... Think the clown is overdoing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 00z NAM look better than 12z and 18z runs for Western NC with more cold in place. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 the balsams will get smoked for sure. Yeah James that would be nice with some back end snow thumping away.might need to get the gate code from mike! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The oz Nam starts a ne heading and comes inland south miss and alabamba. If it could stay due east another 6 to 12 hrs before turning it would really change for the better for alot of folks. Notice the space between the hp sliding east into the mld atlantic region and the GL low which is way up north of the lake region compared to earlier. If the confluence can improve just a smidgen or the low delay it's left turn, the mtns esp high country could stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The RaleighWX clown for the 00z NAM has 1-2" for GSP, FWIW. 1-2" in NW NC on down to GSO, too, and down the foothills to about Shelby into NW SC and NE GA. Didn't see it, personally... Think the clown is overdoing it.I'm sure it is overdoing it. It's the coldest run we've seen in a while, but it is the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm going to post this just to get weenie spirits up.... Pretty sure the NAM doesn't actually show much/any snow east of the Apps... OTOH, it's nice to have Allan's maps back. Wish I'd have signed up for it last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 might need to get the gate code from mike!lol no kidding. Or hike up black Rock at some 5000+ feet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NAM is interesting as it cutoffs that energy creating a descent ULL. That I think will be our only real hope if the NAM is onto something there. If it's a lot further south NC could cash in on some snow in the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 "IF" The nam verified id be happy, 4-6 fmby "Blue Ridge Escarpment " very much still in the game! IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm off to bed with a nam weenie map. When I wake up i can see the furnace on the euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm going to post this just to get weenie spirits up.... Pretty sure the NAM doesn't actually show much/any snow east of the Apps... OTOH, it's nice to have Allan's maps back. Wish I'd have signed up for it last winter. Probably overdone for valley areas like Asheville, but even 2-3 inches is still nice to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I got a feeling the gfs , ukie, or euro is gonna delay or be a notch futher east when the LP makes the left turn or starts climbing. This will be huge for the mtns, esp if that hp is moving in tandem into PA at the same time and has the same or more seperation than the nam from the southern Canada or GL lp. More seperating between those 2 would argue for stronger hp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Ukie use to be good at handling phased storms coming out of GOM, so pay attention to it. That's just one piece to the puzzle. Watch the confluence up north and see if the gfs or euro can better the nam on the hp placement strength and seperation. All it takes is another half tweek on those 2 factors and mountains could easily become gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Ukie use to be good at handling phased storms coming out of GOM, so pay attention to it. That's just one piece to the puzzle. Watch the confluence up north and see if the gfs or euro can better the nam on the hp placement strength and seperation. All it takes is another half tweek on those 2 factors and mountains could easily become gold. The UKMET was wide right and way OTS at 12z. Precip didn't get north of the NC/VA border. It does tend to be a bit suppressed in general, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 00z GFS is a lot colder than 18z has a 1028 high in NY at hour 60. Of course it floats away at 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Trough also looks better. Something to keep an eye on. Does the high stay in place longer? Does the trough get a better tilt the closer we get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Damn, the GFS is close to snow here at hr 72. Looks like snow for the border counties and the northern foothills (N/W of INT or so). That's two runs in a row of colder temps. **Haven't looked at BL temps** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Burger if you look at the LP to the ne of Maine and compare to where the Nam places it. Do you see a difference. That lp was kinda of wound up on the nam and blocking the hp , fact hp slid sw from PA toward Delmarva because of it. When the HP was in good place on the nam it also had better separation from the GL low, which was futher north of the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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