Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,587
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Winter medium range model pbp I


GaWx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

If we don't get anything from the clipper, then our goose is cooked for January.

 

It is so common for these things to take beautiful tracks 5+ days out.  It seems like they almost always end up hundreds of miles north.  DC will be lucky to stay south of it at this rate.  On to February.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm absolutely amazed at the amount of people (on here, on TV) who are so gung-ho about Monday just because the GFS shows a clipper that goes across the Southern Appalachians.

I mean...we have a classic Miller-A low that is going to not create any snow in the climatological peak of winter because there is zero cold air in place...yet, something that traditionally does little to nothing for NC is getting so much play because the cold is in place.

 

 

This winter has been a total disaster...from the very deceitful teleconnections (NAO, AO, PNA, EPO) to the lack to getting the southern stream to cooperate when needed...this has become a complete dumpster fire.

Wake me the hell up when spring arrives, I'm done! :axe:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is so common for these things to take beautiful tracks 5+ days out. It seems like they almost always end up hundreds of miles north. DC will be lucky to stay south of it at this rate. On to February.

I think you can get results from that clipper next week. We never get snow from that track being in the Lee but yall are better placed further east.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 18z NAM is colder and a decent hit for the mountains. It actually starts off N NC and the foothills as snow, too, before going over to rain. Strange.

Yeah, yeah... LR NAM...

 

When you look at the EPS the members do cluster right inside HAT, you would think the mountains would do OK with that.  But, now you are seeing a cluster that run up the apps too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 18z NAM is colder and a decent hit for the mountains. It actually starts off N NC and the foothills as snow, too, before going over to rain. Strange.

Yeah, yeah... LR NAM...

temp/ptype wise it is almost identical to the 12z gfs.  will be interesting to see if the 18z gfs keeps showing cooler temps or if it goes back to the torch euro solution.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS hammers N-W NC, does flip to rain.  Nice looking winter storm. 

 

Definitely colder than the 12z run.  The 18z NAM was already interesting, as mentioned.  Maybe a front-end bit of snow isn't completely impossible.  If nothing else, the mountains look to do well.  The northern foothills would start out as snow, verbatim (assuming BL temps are okay... didn't look).  Frosty would be happy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Definitely colder than the 12z run.  The 18z NAM was already interesting, as mentioned.  Maybe a front-end bit of snow isn't completely impossible.  If nothing else, the mountains look to do well.  The northern foothills would start out as snow, verbatim.  Frosty would be happy.

 

This could be a good weekend to hit up Boone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Definitely colder than the 12z run.  The 18z NAM was already interesting, as mentioned.  Maybe a front-end bit of snow isn't completely impossible.  If nothing else, the mountains look to do well.  The northern foothills would start out as snow, verbatim (assuming BL temps are okay... didn't look).  Frosty would be happy.

Imma on the line for 1-3 which when push comes to shove means,  I get a mix at best!!!

 

And that's what RNK says Mix for me.

 

THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER

MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE

OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE

MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN LIKELY

WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW

ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

70 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE

MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE

AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

50 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE

EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER

30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

 

As of right now I'm looking for 0 flakes!!! ;) 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at the wxbell maps for SLP coupling on the Euro ens mean at 96-102hrs for the storm is just depressing...bombing out and no cold. A lot in a perfect location for the scenario if we event got a hint of cold to work with, but still no snow over Central NC. Sad really. I think there is still potential for flakes on the back end for Central NC though for a silver lining. Very slim chance but there IMO, so long as this doesn't trend warmer than it already has.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at the wxbell maps for SLP coupling on the Euro ens mean at 96-102hrs for the storm is just depressing...bombing out and no cold. A lot in a perfect location for the scenario if we event got a hint of cold to work with, but still no snow over Central NC. Sad really. I think there is still potential for flakes on the back end for Central NC though for a silver lining. Very slim chance but there IMO, so long as this doesn't trend warmer than it already has.

How did the ensemble look for the mtns? I still think we are in for good snow storm despite the slightly warm look for us atm. I can't recall the Mtns ever starting as heavy snow and going over to rain, it's always the other way around when both rain and snow are involved.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...