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Winter medium range model pbp I


GaWx

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Ends up at 1000mb right on the tip of Cape Hatteras.  If it can move about 50 miles SE earlier in the run and get into the Atlantic on the GA/FL border instead of staying over land and riding the SC coast, many more of us would be in business.  I suspect we will see the temps cool a bit and the Euro back down from being so wound up.  We will probably get NAM'd on one run.  Just enough hope to keep many of us strung along.  My gut is that the mountains and NW foothills will get the paste bomb and not the rest of us though.

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Cold air beings to dive bomb all of NC at 102.

 

 

Yea tough to buy into anything but rain with that look. 

 

ya, I figured...there are a few pockets that get closer with the 850's, probably still rain anyway, but a little colder.  #FAIL   :)

Yeah unless we get a sub 990 bomb right at the NC/VA border hugging the coast, and imoisture loaded in the NW/specifically SW side, NC is out of this and this is a DCA north storm. I like the DCA north solution more than us seeing anything, it's cold chasing moisture at this point.

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Yeah unless we get a sub 990 bomb right at the NC/VA border hugging the coast, and imoisture loaded in the NW/specifically SW side, NC is out of this and this is a DCA north storm. I like the DCA north solution more than us seeing anything, it's cold chasing moisture at this point.

 

I'd rather see a 990 bomb SE of Wilmington, with strengthening as it moves NNE.  I think that's our only hope, Obi Wan.  But it doesn't matter, as my wish isn't likely to happen.

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I'd rather see a 990 bomb SE of Wilmington, with strengthening as it moves NNE. I think that's our only hope, Obi Wan.

In that scenario you'd have to pray hard to get enough cold air to funnel into RDU I feel like.. The bag of straws in my pantry are empty for this storm.
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Right on it's heels that clipper looks like it's on steroids. I would have to see it to believe since clippers almost only work for I-40 and RDU....but it looks like it's good for much of the state including MBY.

 

It's digging for sure.  It's still hard for us to get much from a clipper.  The mountains zap the moisture 99% of the time.  Do we get a dusting to a 1/2 inch and call it a win?

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Right on it's heels that clipper looks like it's on steroids. I would have to see it to believe since clippers almost only work for I-40 and RDU....but it looks like it's good for much of the state including MBY.

no doubt. 147 looks stout with .25-.5 in a large part of W-TN, NEGA, the upstate and WNC+ western pedimont 

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In that scenario you'd have to pray hard to get enough cold air to funnel into RDU I feel like.. The bag of straws in my pantry are empty for this storm.

 

Yeah, I don't really see much of anything that can help us.  If we can't get snow, heavy rain and strong winds would be fine with me.  But yeah, prayer is about all we got with this one now.  I hope the mountains can cash in.

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Lol these kind of storms suck for people living in my vicinity because it's not cold enough for you guys but so close for me and points north. Im stuck in the middle of forums. I'm not a huge fan of the mid Atlantic forums those guys can be d*cks sometimes. You guys at least keep everything neutral and stay respectful.

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Lol these kind of storms suck for people living in my vicinity because it's not cold enough for you guys but so close for me and points north. Im stuck in the middle of forums. I'm not a huge fan of the mid Atlantic forums those guys can be d*cks sometimes. You guys at least keep everything neutral and stay respectful.

def a good run trend wise for your backyard.  every time i throw in the towel on this system we get a run that reels us back in.  if that 540 line keeps trending south and east and the lp can bomb out we will all be in good shape.  still plenty of time to watch this one.

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Thanks!

That looks good for a chuck of this area.  

 

Sorry, I sent you yesterday's run, LOL.

 

This is today's run:

 

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=fnmoc_conus&set=All

 

Specifically 850s/RH:

 

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_all.cgi?type=prod&area=nvg_conus∏=850&dtg=2015012012&set=All

 

Precip/SLP:

 

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_all.cgi?type=prod&area=nvg_conus∏=prp&dtg=2015012012&set=All

 

EDIT: Wait, maybe something weird is going on with the maps... now they look different and much worse?  I don't know...  Not familiar with this site... looks like a torching southern slider or something.  Ah, well, the maps will be up on WB soon enough.

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The NAVGEM is like a Franklin NCwx Special this morning.  Much better look for you than last night's mess.  Looks like we at least might be trending back towards a mountain paste job, which would be something.

 

And we still got that possible clipper to come in 2-3 days later. I really hope at least we can get a win from one of those two threats.

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Comparing the GFS runs from yesterday from the current run, the timing of precip for the Western Carolinas have slowed down from roughly 12z Friday to now  0-6z Saturday...

 

That delay of about 18 hours is going to prevent us from having a good ol fashioned Mountains and foothills snow event. The temps Friday morning would support heavy wet snow for that area but now its going to allow temps to moderate Friday afternoon before precip rolls in Friday night. That is a dagger for the foothills IMO while the mountains, especially above 3000 ft may still be able to pull it off...

 

We need either the GFS to speed it back up  or it needs to trend about 2-3 degrees celsius colder from 850mb-SFC. I will say that thickness levels are in the 543 range...which you can get snow with that kind of thickness level...

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