WxBlue Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This is step in the right direction with 540 line much closer to Upstate SC/Western NC. We still need that line to move about 100 miles to east, but we're getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12z def colder at 102 compared to 00z and 06z. still nada for nc but a small step in the right direction. 06z: 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Ends up at 1000mb right on the tip of Cape Hatteras. If it can move about 50 miles SE earlier in the run and get into the Atlantic on the GA/FL border instead of staying over land and riding the SC coast, many more of us would be in business. I suspect we will see the temps cool a bit and the Euro back down from being so wound up. We will probably get NAM'd on one run. Just enough hope to keep many of us strung along. My gut is that the mountains and NW foothills will get the paste bomb and not the rest of us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Cold air beings to dive bomb all of NC at 102. Yea tough to buy into anything but rain with that look. ya, I figured...there are a few pockets that get closer with the 850's, probably still rain anyway, but a little colder. #FAIL Yeah unless we get a sub 990 bomb right at the NC/VA border hugging the coast, and imoisture loaded in the NW/specifically SW side, NC is out of this and this is a DCA north storm. I like the DCA north solution more than us seeing anything, it's cold chasing moisture at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yeah unless we get a sub 990 bomb right at the NC/VA border hugging the coast, and imoisture loaded in the NW/specifically SW side, NC is out of this and this is a DCA north storm. I like the DCA north solution more than us seeing anything, it's cold chasing moisture at this point. I'd rather see a 990 bomb SE of Wilmington, with strengthening as it moves NNE. I think that's our only hope, Obi Wan. But it doesn't matter, as my wish isn't likely to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nice looking snowstorm, chase to Va. DC HECS inbound... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'd rather see a 990 bomb SE of Wilmington, with strengthening as it moves NNE. I think that's our only hope, Obi Wan.In that scenario you'd have to pray hard to get enough cold air to funnel into RDU I feel like.. The bag of straws in my pantry are empty for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Right on it's heels that clipper looks like it's on steroids. I would have to see it to believe since clippers almost only work for I-40 and RDU....but it looks like it's good for much of the state including MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GL low has been a consistent element throughout the ups and downs of tracking this storm. Too bad it looks like it's going to verify. Seems like it wasn't the "good" GL low. I really thought this one had a chance. Got the Miller A look, and it warmed all the way up. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The 12z NAVGEM destroys the mountains with Franklin's I-95 runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Right on it's heels that clipper looks like it's on steroids. I would have to see it to believe since clippers almost only work for I-40 and RDU....but it looks like it's good for much of the state including MBY. It's digging for sure. It's still hard for us to get much from a clipper. The mountains zap the moisture 99% of the time. Do we get a dusting to a 1/2 inch and call it a win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Right on it's heels that clipper looks like it's on steroids. I would have to see it to believe since clippers almost only work for I-40 and RDU....but it looks like it's good for much of the state including MBY. no doubt. 147 looks stout with .25-.5 in a large part of W-TN, NEGA, the upstate and WNC+ western pedimont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 If I had to guess... .50 of QPF falls across much of the state and that should mostly be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 In that scenario you'd have to pray hard to get enough cold air to funnel into RDU I feel like.. The bag of straws in my pantry are empty for this storm. Yeah, I don't really see much of anything that can help us. If we can't get snow, heavy rain and strong winds would be fine with me. But yeah, prayer is about all we got with this one now. I hope the mountains can cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Lol these kind of storms suck for people living in my vicinity because it's not cold enough for you guys but so close for me and points north. Im stuck in the middle of forums. I'm not a huge fan of the mid Atlantic forums those guys can be d*cks sometimes. You guys at least keep everything neutral and stay respectful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The 12z NAVGEM destroys the mountains with Franklin's I-95 runner. Map or link? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 If I had to guess... .50 of QPF falls across much of the state and that should mostly be snow.Is the cold here for the clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Lol these kind of storms suck for people living in my vicinity because it's not cold enough for you guys but so close for me and points north. Im stuck in the middle of forums. I'm not a huge fan of the mid Atlantic forums those guys can be d*cks sometimes. You guys at least keep everything neutral and stay respectful. def a good run trend wise for your backyard. every time i throw in the towel on this system we get a run that reels us back in. if that 540 line keeps trending south and east and the lp can bomb out we will all be in good shape. still plenty of time to watch this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Is the cold here for the clipper? 540 line is in south GA and SC for the arrival and for the durtation of the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Sounds like the clipper is on steroids this morning. Map or link? thanks https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=fnmoc_conus&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nice clipper for western NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Is the cold here for the clipper? 540 line is basically near GA/FL border during clipper passage. Precipitation for all of us in NC should be mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I feel like we may be missing the forest for the trees with the system after this weekend. I'm curious to see if it can close off as it gets closer to us somehow. If that happens look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Sounds like the clipper is on steroids this morning. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2015011912∏=850τ=000&set=All Thanks! That looks good for a chuck of this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 ALL HAIL the Drunk DOC. It is DEF leading the way. There is NO doubt about it. We shall see if the Drunk DOC can keep going toward that #1 hit, or does he back off and we boo him to the depths of the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Thanks! That looks good for a chuck of this area. Sorry, I sent you yesterday's run, LOL. This is today's run: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=fnmoc_conus&set=All Specifically 850s/RH: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_all.cgi?type=prod&area=nvg_conus∏=850&dtg=2015012012&set=All Precip/SLP: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_all.cgi?type=prod&area=nvg_conus∏=prp&dtg=2015012012&set=All EDIT: Wait, maybe something weird is going on with the maps... now they look different and much worse? I don't know... Not familiar with this site... looks like a torching southern slider or something. Ah, well, the maps will be up on WB soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 ALL HAIL the Drunk DOC. It is DEF leading the way. There is NO doubt about it. We shall see if the Drunk DOC can keep going toward that #1 hit, or does he back off and we boo him to the depths of the GFS?lol.. the navgem has really led the way on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 lol.. the navgem has really led the way on this. The NAVGEM is like a Franklin NCwx Special this morning. Much better look for you than last night's mess. Looks like we at least might be trending back towards a mountain paste job, which would be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The NAVGEM is like a Franklin NCwx Special this morning. Much better look for you than last night's mess. Looks like we at least might be trending back towards a mountain paste job, which would be something. And we still got that possible clipper to come in 2-3 days later. I really hope at least we can get a win from one of those two threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Comparing the GFS runs from yesterday from the current run, the timing of precip for the Western Carolinas have slowed down from roughly 12z Friday to now 0-6z Saturday... That delay of about 18 hours is going to prevent us from having a good ol fashioned Mountains and foothills snow event. The temps Friday morning would support heavy wet snow for that area but now its going to allow temps to moderate Friday afternoon before precip rolls in Friday night. That is a dagger for the foothills IMO while the mountains, especially above 3000 ft may still be able to pull it off... We need either the GFS to speed it back up or it needs to trend about 2-3 degrees celsius colder from 850mb-SFC. I will say that thickness levels are in the 543 range...which you can get snow with that kind of thickness level... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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