Smoked Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The Friday storm looks to be on life support with large disagreements on the timing and magnitude of the upper level vorticity field. Latest Nam and Euro seem to hang on barely while the para and GFS kill it off. At least we have something wintry to discuss beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 A nice writeup as usual for Iso, but there is still a lot of "IF the atmosphere does this(x) AS FORECASTED, we SHOULD see this(x)" in there. For whatever reason (pacific tropical forcing, etc), the atmosphere isn't behaving like expected. Until it happens, I will remain skeptical of it ever happening. Just like this past summer/fall waiting on a Nino No....I'm not saying winter is over...lol....after all, it's only mid Jan and we have about 5 wks left in our window. It will just take threading that needle to get the job done without any blocking Just 5 weeks to get in the best winter ever? Man, this needle threading is tough, especially with old eyes. I think perhaps those portals are still working at a July pace You might want to launch a commando raid to close them down..... they are messing us all up, lol. On the bright side, I had a wonderful cloudy day yesterday with ne wind and just short of cold temps, and today is gloriously foggy, winter drippy, with jacket temps, so I'm pretty happy with the weather, especially after just having it down to 13. Since it won't sleet every day, I've learned to enjoy the little things, lol. It wouldn't bother me if the sun never came out all winter Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I would argue the Euro control run has the best winter storm look of the season, Day 9+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I would argue the Euro control run has the best winter storm look of the season, Day 9+. I agree. It's nice to see. Would be even nicer to see it under day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Just 5 weeks to get in the best winter ever? Man, this needle threading is tough, especially with old eyes. I think perhaps those portals are still working at a July pace You might want to launch a commando raid to close them down..... they are messing us all up, lol. On the bright side, I had a wonderful cloudy day yesterday with ne wind and just short of cold temps, and today is gloriously foggy, winter drippy, with jacket temps, so I'm pretty happy with the weather, especially after just having it down to 13. Since it won't sleet every day, I've learned to enjoy the little things, lol. It wouldn't bother me if the sun never came out all winter Tony We should be pretty happy with the fall like weather this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 So how's the 16/16 looking? Bomb ?Rain/ snow mix on Thursday , per GSP ! Light precip, but plenty of time to watch! Boo-yah!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Our 1/16 storm has all but fizzled out on the Euro . It might be time to wait a week for the reshuffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Light snow and flurries south of 85 on Thursday , per GSP boo-yah ! 15/16 thread winning! Guess every once in a blue moon, it pays to be S of 85! March 2009 and now Jan16th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Light snow and flurries south of 85 on Thursday , per GSP boo-yah ! 15/16 thread winning! Guess every once in a blue moon, it pays to be S of 85! March 2009 and now Jan16th! I haven't been focusing on this but the 6z NAM does have this at hour 75: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_075_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=075&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150113+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 6z NAM hour 84 -- 24 hour totals http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150113+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 6z NAM hour 84 -- 24 hour totals http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150113+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model .10-.25 just to my south! Temps support snow, would like to see what some hi-res models are showing! Time to un lock the thread and bring it home! As the ice melts tomorrow afternoon, it will be time to focus on this!! The Euro was horrible with this current event , so not worried it doesn't show much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 6z NAM hour 84 -- 24 hour totals http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150113+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model I think we get some flurries out of this....sadly the 84 hour NAM is about as believable as hour 384 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I think we get some flurries out of this....sadly the 84 hour NAM is about as believable as hour 384 on the GFS. But if we get the higher amounts of ice tonight/tomorrow I would give the model win to the NAM. **now I agree that this could be the case of "a broke clock is right twice a day". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The Euro is really close to some light snow for the NC Piedmont at hr 54-60, but surface temperatures screw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Ummmmm...did the DOC just do something for Sunday?? EDIT looks warm, but interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Edit...Looks to warm, but thats somewhat of a close call over AL, TN, NGA, and pushing into the Upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Ummmmm...did the DOC just do something for Sunday?? EDIT looks warm, but interesting! Oddly enough it makes some close calls throughout the run for the SE. Very intriguing indeed. Would like to see the 00z keep the same look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Oddly enough it makes some close calls throughout the run for the SE. Very intriguing indeed. Would like to see the 00z keep the same look. me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I just got NAM'd on Thursday! Seeing how it nailed this ice event, I'm all in!! It's too warm as modeled, but it will trend colder, just good to see precip back! Time for a thread!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Euro ensembles hint at that sneaky little system on Sunday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Euro ensembles hint at that sneaky little system on Sunday too. GFS PARA was close as well. Not nearly as robust but it's there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Ill say this the energy for Thurs looks a whole lot better on radar out in the sw then the drizzler coming through NC tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Looks like for NC, didn't check everyone else in SE, but Saturday is the only day at or above normal. Moisture comes back Sunday with digging shortwave and it's below normal after its departure next week. JANUARY is gonna end up below normal temp wise up here, just a question of how much. Sitting at -3 temp departure at Greensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 For such a terrible pattern the models sure do want to give us a lot of close calls over the next 7-10 days. The 6z PARA is very close for Sunday/Monday and then next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 For such a terrible pattern the models sure do want to give us a lot of close calls over the next 7-10 days. The 6z PARA is very close for Sunday/Monday and then next week.Agreed! That 23rd storm on 6z GFS looks amazingly close to greatness and has alot of potential! I think it was there yesterday and don't know if Euro is showing it, but it looks like a long duration event, maybe 2 waves? Lots of precip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Then we have this on our side, ! Proof enough that they use the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Euro EPS control run had an interesting look last night around 252. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Euro EPS control run had an interesting look last night around 252. I did see that, looks like multiple shots of cold as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Those drive bys like Sundays never do anything for Ga south of Gainesville, but now Goofy's 216 looks like something that could actually happen. Another great day today, 42 and cloudy. I'd love 2 dozen of these in mid summer, but if I can't have a high of 28 with sleet and snow today, this'll do great T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 NAM, and somewhat GFS is interesting for North Alabama and N GA tomorrow. More so in Alabama due to the timing. GA maybe above 3k feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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