franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Well that sure went to crap in a hurry. Man, the timing of this sure has slowed down which allows our confluence up north to lift out and our storm to amplify even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Only in our world. Gotta go hope some clipper does something it doesn't do 99 times out if 100 and put a dusting down so mby can avoid the shutout. Of course I still got fab Feb and a)l that blocking getting ready to roll in, so says cohen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GFS 6z Fab Feb Groundhog Day storm is back In our favor! Major ice storm , almost down to CAE, major CAD situation!! Only 13 days out, let's reel this in! It's been on the models for 4-5 days atleast, I'm all in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's the long range GFS and all that jazz, but man, if you look at 6z GFS , upon further examination, between about Feb 1st- end of the run, there are like 5-6 back to back threats!! Very fun to look at, for entertainment purposes only! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Great PBP by Matthew East on the over nights runs in his morning Video. Thanks Matt! Warmer and stronger.. Oh joy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's the long range GFS and all that jazz, but man, if you look at 6z GFS , upon further examination, between about Feb 1st- end of the run, there are like 5-6 back to back threats!! Very fun to look at, for entertainment purposes only! It does look very wintery. Wouldn't it be nice to get a 2-3 week period of actual winter, while it's still winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's the long range GFS and all that jazz, but man, if you look at 6z GFS , upon further examination, between about Feb 1st- end of the run, there are like 5-6 back to back threats!! Very fun to look at, for entertainment purposes only!Yeah Mack. Nasty cad look way late in the run. Too bad it isn't four days out right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yeah Mack. Nasty cad look way late in the run. Too bad it isn't four days out right? Anything beyond three days has been suspect on the models lately. They have been changing drastically in a short amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12z NAM almost has a Miller B look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This system is playing some mind games with all of us. Essentially the scripts are flipped. You have the usual always over amped NAM not so much this go around whereas the Euro can barely contain itself and wants to shove this thing to more of an inland runner. The 12z NAM however for my specific area has the 850 line to the NC/VA border as precip is inbound on the 84hr image. I'll take whatever I can get I guess but with the NAM not amped I don't know what to buy into right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This system is playing some mind games with all of us. Essentially the scripts are flipped. You have the usual always over amped NAM not so much this go around whereas the Euro can barely contain itself and wants to shove this thing to more of an inland runner. The 12z NAM however for my specific area has the 850 line to the NC/VA border as precip is inbound on the 84hr image. I'll take whatever I can get I guess but with the NAM not amped I don't know what to buy into right now.euro likes to over amp too. The NAM Holds Onto freezing 850 temps for some of the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It does look very wintery. Wouldn't it be nice to get a 2-3 week period of actual winter, while it's still winter? Wait, wait, wait.....so you want winter to actually happen in winter? So....a blizzard in June is off the table? Picky, picky.... I suppose next you'll want a storm to actually happen, not just on the models? Remember where you are! It never happens here anyway....well, it used to, but then it got warm Just be glad that the next one is close, and the Monday affair, aside from the fact there is little moisture, seem to occur when it's cold. You go from lots of moisture but not cold enough to cold enough with little moisture...so what else is new? It's the south! Get a hold of yourself man!! Think of the little children...... T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Wait, wait, wait.....so you want winter to actually happen in winter? So....a blizzard in June is off the table? Picky, picky.... I suppose next you'll want a storm to actually happen, not just on the models? Remember where you are! It never happens here anyway....well, it used to, but then it got warm Just be glad that the next one is close, and the Monday affair, aside from the fact there is little moisture, seem to occur when it's cold. You go from lots of moisture but not cold enough to cold enough with little moisture...so what else is new? It's the south! Get a hold of yourself man!! Think of the little children...... T Lol...a blizzard in June is becoming almost as likely as a blizzard in January or February at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12z NAM is a little interesting. Has dew points dropping into the 20s over north NC as precip moves in. Something to watch. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=20&model_init_hh=12&fhour=75¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12z NAM is a little interesting. Has dew points dropping into the 20s over north NC as precip moves in. Something to watch. NAM's sniffing out of low level cold air ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjpayne44 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Perhaps, though precip is moving in faster than it is on the 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12z NAM is a little interesting. Has dew points dropping into the 20s over north NC as precip moves in. Something to watch. NAM's sniffing out of low level cold air ftw? Looks like it. Still not cold/dry enough but getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12z GFS got a stronger H5 low coming in this time. Not sure if that's a good sign, but hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'm going to take a stab at the future and say it's still rain for mby It is nice to see the gfs find it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GFS still all over the place with this, but it did look colder at 850 for most. AR, TN and even WNC looked to be near 0c at 850. MUCH colder if I Am not mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GFS goes bonkers with the precip over the Triad of NC. If we could get some dynamic cooling, it would be a paste job! Too bad it will be a cold rain monsoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GFS still all over the place with this, but it did look colder at 850 for most. AR, TN and even WNC looked to be near 0c at 850. MUCH colder if I Am not mistaken The look at 87 is colder but also very warm into all of our viewing (reading) areas in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's not going to go neutral/negative tilt fast enough, we need this thing to BOMB with the perfect track....12z GFS was a step forward definitely..close to seeing some backend snow with this track/strength verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The look at 87 is colder but also very warm into all of our viewing (reading) areas in the SE. Yea tough to buy into anything but rain with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's not going to go neutral/negative tilt fast enough, we need this thing to BOMB with the perfect track....12z GFS was a step forward definitely..close to seeing some backend snow with this track/strength verbatim. Cold air beings to dive bomb all of NC at 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The look at 87 is colder but also very warm into all of our viewing (reading) areas in the SE. ya, I figured...there are a few pockets that get closer with the 850's, probably still rain anyway, but a little colder. #FAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yea tough to buy into anything but rain with that look. warm air is just flooding during the heart of this system. So I agree. The 12Z, though a slight step in the better, non warm direction, is a rainy mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nice looking snowstorm, chase to Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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