superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yeah, not going to get it done this time around concerning the cold. Look like GFS is starting to lock in a bit. The GFS just took another big shift towards the rest of the modeling, so I wouldn't say it's locking in. I love perfect track Miller A rainstorms in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 #FAIL YAY! for a 40-45 degree RAIN with a perfect storm track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 kaput! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Why do we care what a brand new model has to say about the temp profile? It's amazingly warm compared to every other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Blue ridge couldn't agree more. With the GFS taking baby steps here I'm thinking it's starting to trend toward the other 12z models today which is definitely huge! If the Euro and Canadian come out tonight and continue to show an ominous look, look for the GFS to hopefully continue trending in the right direction. James, look at all the positives here brother. This thing even on the GFS is starting to look extremely ominous. Let's get some heavy precip in here and watch the rates compensate for marginal air. All is not lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The GFS just took another big shift towards the rest of the modeling, so I wouldn't say it's locking in. I love perfect track Miller A rainstorms in January. I really need to let the run go through first before commenting *sigh*. Yeah, it's a great step in right direction but temperatures are still little concerning for WNC considering today's warmth over-performed in Asheville. I know it could cool over the next few days, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Boy was that ugly! Perfect track and right in our wheelhouse winter peek time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I want to throw a thermal profile out here for our reg-taggers to look at... 0 1000 182 SFC 965 474 2.2 1.5 95 0.7 1.9 183 1 278.2 278.9 276.8 290.3 4.40 2 950 600 3.4 0.8 83 2.7 2.2 190 3 280.7 281.4 277.9 292.5 4.25 3 900 1038 2.8 -1.3 75 4.1 1.0 231 6 284.4 285.0 279.2 295.3 3.86 4 850 1500 2.4 -3.4 66 5.8 -0.1 218 10 288.6 289.3 280.8 298.8 3.50 5 800 1988 0.2 -3.1 79 3.3 -1.2 218 13 291.4 292.0 282.4 302.5 3.81 6 750 2504 -1.7 -3.4 88 1.7 -2.4 244 15 294.7 295.4 284.0 306.4 3.96 7 700 3052 -3.4 -4.2 94 0.8 -3.7 258 24 298.8 299.5 285.6 310.8 4.00 8 650 3636 -5.9 -6.4 97 0.4 -6.1 256 35 302.2 302.9 286.5 313.4 3.66 9 600 4259 -9.0 -9.4 97 0.4 -9.2 250 43 305.7 306.3 287.2 315.4 3.11 10 550 4930 -11.9 -12.1 99 0.2 -12.0 242 53 310.0 310.5 288.3 318.8 2.75 11 500 5654 -16.2 -16.3 99 0.1 -16.2 243 60 313.3 313.7 288.8 320.3 2.14 12 450 6438 -21.7 -22.1 97 0.3 -21.8 250 68 315.9 316.2 289.0 320.8 1.45 13 400 7296 -27.2 -27.3 99 0.1 -27.2 247 77 319.7 319.9 289.8 323.2 1.02 14 350 8245 -33.7 -33.8 100 0.0 -33.7 243 89 323.3 323.4 290.5 325.6 0.63 15 300 9309 -41.4 -41.4 100 0.0 -41.3 249 106 327.1 327.1 291.2 328.3 0.34 16 250 10521 -50.6 -50.8 98 0.2 -50.6 253 121 330.9 330.9 292.1 331.4 0.14 17 200 11944 -59.0 -62.6 62 3.7 -59.0 253 120 339.4 339.4 294.2 339.6 0.04 18 150 13728 -63.0 -79.5 9 16.6 -63.1 258 98 361.6 361.6 299.0 361.6 0.00 19 100 16224 -63.7 -84.7 4 21.0 -63.9 263 48 404.6 404.6 305.8 404.6 0.00 TRP 0 WND 0 Sounding variables and indices 1000-500 mb thick: 5472.13 m Freezing level: 795.06 mb = 2039.43 m = 6690.97 ft Ok, my question... Notice the profile from 800mb down to the surface, well above freezing...but also look at the thickness level. Does the temperature profile make sense for that thickness level?Would love our veterans on here to explain this to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 well, the moisture-starved clipper should be cold enough for you guys in parts of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The GFS isn't even close to being close here from 800 mb on down. Jesus. Perfect track, but zero cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 well, the moisture-starved clipper should be cold enough for you guys in parts of NC It would get lumped into the group called clippers, but it's on the hefty side. That would be worth tracking if it could hold, ole say, 7 more days. That's a good looking setup on the 00z GFS for that 'family' of storm types. Closed ridge over Nevada with a closed low over Missouri diving SE - nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's hard to get snow with 40 degree 2m temps. If I lived in Boone, I would be ecstatic . Our local guy just said he's calling NC/SC border the snow line and introduced rain into our forecast on Fri and Sat for the first time , based on model trends today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's hard to get snow with 40 degree 2m temps. If I lived in Boone, I would be ecstatic . Our local guy just said he's calling NC/SC border the snow line and introduced rain into our forecast on Fri and Sat for the first time , based on model trends today! The GFS isn't even close for Boone. (not that I'm saying it's right, but still) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The GFS isn't even close for Boone. (not that I'm saying it's right, but still) You forgot dynamic cooling! Seriously, the Canadian looks colder! I think the new GFS needs a tune up already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The 00z Canadian is a rainstorm. The LP tracks over S GA, which is no dice typically. At least it has a lot of rain. Might work out for VA. We'll see. Looks like the R/S line is just north of the NC/VA border. EDIT: And the 00z NAVGEM tracks inland over central GA and into SC. Needless to say: RAINSTORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 maybe a tiny bit in NC mountains/elevation per ggem. warm though. quite wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Attention on deck!! The Drunk DOC is up on the podium/stage and he ready to sing. Does he continue to refine his number 1.5 hit to a number 1 hit??? OR do we BOO his ass right off the stage just like winter so far?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The H5 looks stronger to me at hr 30 on euro....lets see were she goes...fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 well, this is more interesting, but not in a good snowy way....hour 96, the euro looks like its going NEUTRAL tilt on this...might even close it off, back over LA...RAIN for everyone!!! Maybe LA sees some backlash snow..I Think this one is about to really wrap up. SFC over SGA/FL border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The H5 looks stronger to me at hr 30 on euro....lets see were she goes...fingers crossed. It's tracking inland. Not good. Some of the other modeling went that way tonight, too, and it's pretty much a death blow. It's amazing we've went from a suppressed mess way OTS to now having the system track inland. Woo, NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's tracking inland. Not good. Some of the other modeling went that way tonight, too, and it's pretty much a death blow. It's amazing we've went from a suppressed mess way OTS to now having the system track inland. Woo, NW trend. That's great! Let's make it an apps runner , so the track matches the warm air, and we can quit having pbp's about a rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's tracking inland. Not good. Some of the other modeling went that way tonight, too, and it's pretty much a death blow. It's amazing we've went from a suppressed mess way OTS to now having the system track inland. Woo, NW trend. Yeah not liking that at all, without cold air to tap into even mtns would be all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Folks call it wishcasting but i don't buy it. I know temps suck, but as to the track we need the middle road of what the models have shown today... Edit:Ive seen it all in twenty four hours from tampa to this...somethings fishy i wouldint loose hope just yet we got two days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 game.......set......match!!! I thought we would see more of a flat suppressed solution, and then OTS and well, I was wrong for that, but even then, I didn't expect much, if any frozen or freezing precip. I think there is still some near Brent, DFW area, and maybe southern AR, maybe MEM or just south of there, southern TN near HSV but, thats if this gets some qpf up there and on FRI Am only...and more than likely mixed with rain...this sucks man...maybe we can get super clipper!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Wow, it's really pounding central VA on this run. Just utter destruction as it wraps up. Big flooding if it verifies. Lots of rain. Really trending into a potential DC HECS. I'm so shocked. Really a good hit for the NW burbs. A little warm for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The Euro clown has about a foot for DC. There's that HECS Pack and I have been harping about. TBH, I think DC would probably mix, but the N/W burbs would get rocked. I wouldn't mind if they got hammered. I could at least vicariously follow it through their threads. This winter has been so awful we haven't even been able to do that so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 With how quickly temps warmed up wouldn't be surprised to see them cool off especially inside 72 hours as short/medium range models take over especially if there is some insitu cold air damning or changes in the track of course. If this storm really bombs it may help to strengthen the downstream area of high pressure.. Allowing somewhat colder air to funnel in. Still plenty of outs. Though I've been concerned about the possibility of warmning for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 6z has our energy out west cutting off @63. This could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Lots of moisture in the gulf and a nice 1028 high sitting in NY in perfect position for CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 @84 CAD moves out WAA moves in...swing and a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.