superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Stupid question but what is HECS?Historic East Coast Storm.These are the levels, ordered by declining levels of impact: BECS - Biblical East Coast Storm (Mythical?) HECS - Historic East Coast Storm MECS - Major East Coast Storm SECS - Significant East Coast Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Gotcha. Preciate it guys!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 LOL, Pack, you can always count on the control run to bring the goods. Looks like the EPS Mean has ticked up to over 2" now with about half of the members showing hits (I'm guessing some are still OTS and there are probably some really amped members that are merely rain). Of the hits, I'd say a third are major like the control, a third are moderate, and a third are light. RDU and CLT's means are around 1.2". Not a bad look at this point, though there's still a long way to go. Wouldn't be surprised if we rain while DC HECSs. Will see, nothing is off the table, I still think points NW of 85/40 have the best shot. 1/22/87 redux...painfull, but I would chase the 15 miles if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 LMAO don't look now...GFS....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 LMAO don't look now...GFS....... You been calling to look out for this for a couple of days now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Lol at folks giving up on a storm that is 90 + hours out. Anything can happen in that time frame. The s/w are not even being properly sampled. They have yet to enter the CONUS. Anyone not believing in snow for N. GA right now is miserable and must hate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Uh oh...GFS cut's it off hr 66-69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 You been calling to look out for this for a couple of days now? I have to some degree, yes. I have been saying we needed stream interaction, and well, we are starting to see that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Just got done looking at the Euro Ensemble Data and all the members, I'll throw some numbers out for Western North Carolina since that is the one area in the Upper Southeast that could potentially cash in with this Friday event...IF, IF, IF the Euro were to verify... Franklin has measurable snow on all 50 ensemble members and a mean avg of just over 4 inches...a good number of members showing 3-4 inches and about a half-dozen of those showing what I would consider a major storm (9 inches+)Asheville has all but 1 member showing snow, a mean avg of about 3.5 inches and like Franklin a half dozen or so bigger events...The foothills (Rutherfordton, Morganton-Lenoir, Hickory) have 25/50 members showing with a mean in the 2-2.5 inch range... Charlotte has 21/50 members with an avg of just over 1 inch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 lower pressures over the GL region is going to kill the storm for about everyone on the GFS. JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 blast furnace and precip suppressed... GFS says everyone can suck it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 lower pressures over the GL region is going to kill the storm for about everyone on the GFS. JMO. not to mention its burying the energy. GFS is likely an error as modeled. Still don't think its going to matter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 lower pressures over the GL region is going to kill the storm for about everyone on the GFS. JMO. I've seen situations where a GL low is modeled but disappears in situations like this as the storm gets closer. Is it just me, or does this happen frequently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'm a Euro guy though, I'll take the Euro over the GFs at this range every single time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Gfs versus all the rest..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Lookout, The Euro has had a warm bias of several degrees at 2m in steady precip. situations like this for years. We've discussed this including last Feb. The new GFS also appears to have this same bias. Also, the 850's were below 0C down to/near MCN on many runs. They were cooling substantially with the precip. due to very dry air at 850 mb. So, when these things were taken into account, I maintain that the consensus was, indeed, cold enough. With heavy enough precip. and 850's several degreees below 0C, why wouldn't that be enough to get SN to the ground? It wouldn't even need to go anywhere close to isothermal to do that if 850's are near, say, 27-28. 34 at the sfc could allow for sticking on grass if heavy/steady enough. However, with 0C 850's now so much further north, it is a totally different story imo. It does have a warm bias but most of the time when it blows it, it's because it mishandles/under estimates evaporational cooling. In this case though, there isn't any dry air to speak of at all...at least based on the nam/gfs with dewpoints only in the 30s. As far as the 850mb temps go, it really doesn't matter since temps below 850mb, especially from 925mb and down, are very warm, on the order of 3 to 5c and not very dry as well so evaporational cooling is not going to be much of a factor either with wetbulb zero heights around 925mb at best. So even under the best case scenerio..where there is enough precip to fully saturate the low levels, freezing levels are going to be a couple of thousand feet up while temps in the lowest 1500 feet are well above freezing Now mind you, I'm basing this off of soundings of the nam/gfs. The euro could be a bit colder or drier but I doubt there is that much difference because it would have to be a HUGE difference. Even the more wound up scenario of the euro, there just isn't much cold air near the surface anywhere close by so CAA would be marginal at best. And there doesn't appear to be much chance for dynamical cooling to play a major role in most places. But even if we were dealing with strong dynamics and tons of precip, which we aren't anyway, it would still probably not be enough. Bottom line is, the low levels are just too warm and I don't see any scenerio where that won't be the case outside the mountains, except maybe the northern most foothills of nc or tn..but of course total precip there is going to be light anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 blast furnace and precip suppressed... GFS says everyone can suck it. Haha! GFS is either going to be the only model I look at from now on or it needs to go back to the garage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It does have a warm bias but most of the time when it blows it, it's because it mishandles/under estimates evaporational cooling. In this case though, there isn't any dry air to speak of at all...at least based on the nam/gfs with dewpoints only in the 30s. As far as the 850mb temps go, it really doesn't matter since temps below 850mb, especially from 925mb and down, are very warm, on the order of 3 to 5c and not very dry as well so evaporational cooling is not going to be much of a factor either with wetbulb zero heights around 925mb at best. So even under the best case scenerio..where there is enough precip to fully saturate the low levels, freezing levels are going to be a couple of thousand feet up while temps in the lowest 1500 feet are well above freezing Now mind you, I'm basing this off of soundings of the nam/gfs. The euro could be a bit colder or drier but I doubt there is that much difference because it would have to be a HUGE difference. Even the more wound up scenario of the euro, there just isn't much cold air near the surface anywhere close by so CAA would be marginal at best. And there doesn't appear to be much chance for dynamical cooling to play a major role in most places. But even if we were dealing with strong dynamics and tons of precip, which we aren't anyway, it would still probably not be enough. Bottom line is, the low levels are just too warm and I don't see any scenerio where that won't be the case outside the mountains, except maybe the northern most foothills of nc or tn..but of course total precip there is going to be light anyway. I agree here. While there may be disagreement among the models about where and how much precip falls, they all agree on one thing. There is not enough cold air around to get a significant SE snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Greg Fishel just showed Euro ensemble rain/snow line. His bottom line: The track is perfect, but it won't be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Lol at folks giving up on a storm that is 90 + hours out. Anything can happen in that time frame. The s/w are not even being properly sampled. They have yet to enter the CONUS. Anyone not believing in snow for N. GA right now is miserable and must hate snow. Marietta To whom are you addressing this? Also, what does love or hate of snow have to do with your comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Greg Fishel just showed Euro ensemble rain/snow line. His bottom line: The track is perfect, but it won't be cold enough. The ECMWF ensemble mean supports some snow for the western Piedmont and especially the foothills and mountains, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It does have a warm bias but most of the time when it blows it, it's because it mishandles/under estimates evaporational cooling. In this case though, there isn't any dry air to speak of at all...at least based on the nam/gfs with dewpoints only in the 30s. As far as the 850mb temps go, it really doesn't matter since temps below 850mb, especially from 925mb and down, are very warm, on the order of 3 to 5c and not very dry as well so evaporational cooling is not going to be much of a factor either with wetbulb zero heights around 925mb at best. So even under the best case scenerio..where there is enough precip to fully saturate the low levels, freezing levels are going to be a couple of thousand feet up while temps in the lowest 1500 feet are well above freezing Now mind you, I'm basing this off of soundings of the nam/gfs. The euro could be a bit colder or drier but I doubt there is that much difference because it would have to be a HUGE difference. Even the more wound up scenario of the euro, there just isn't much cold air near the surface anywhere close by so CAA would be marginal at best. And there doesn't appear to be much chance for dynamical cooling to play a major role in most places. But even if we were dealing with strong dynamics and tons of precip, which we aren't anyway, it would still probably not be enough. Bottom line is, the low levels are just too warm and I don't see any scenerio where that won't be the case outside the mountains, except maybe the northern most foothills of nc or tn..but of course total precip there is going to be light anyway. I agree with you fully. As modeled, NOTHING really shows any snow outside of maybe SE and E TN and WNC *maybe CNC* everywhere else is just too warm..Thats what the models show for sure. Put some human knowledge and exp and touch into it, tells me the EURO is likely wrong somewhere. Too warm? maybe or the track is wrong or something. My gut tells me the euro is off a bit on temps given the look and the pretty descent dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The ECMWF ensemble mean supports some snow for the western Piedmont and especially the foothills and mountains, though. Yes, he was talking about triangle area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 It does have a warm bias but most of the time when it blows it, it's because it mishandles/under estimates evaporational cooling. In this case though, there isn't any dry air to speak of at all...at least based on the nam/gfs with dewpoints only in the 30s. As far as the 850mb temps go, it really doesn't matter since temps below 850mb, especially from 925mb and down, are very warm, on the order of 3 to 5c and not very dry as well so evaporational cooling is not going to be much of a factor either with wetbulb zero heights around 925mb at best. So even under the best case scenerio..where there is enough precip to fully saturate the low levels, freezing levels are going to be a couple of thousand feet up while temps in the lowest 1500 feet are well above freezing Now mind you, I'm basing this off of soundings of the nam/gfs. The euro could be a bit colder or drier but I doubt there is that much difference because it would have to be a HUGE difference. Even the more wound up scenario of the euro, there just isn't much cold air near the surface anywhere close by so CAA would be marginal at best. And there doesn't appear to be much chance for dynamical cooling to play a major role in most places. But even if we were dealing with strong dynamics and tons of precip, which we aren't anyway, it would still probably not be enough. Bottom line is, the low levels are just too warm and I don't see any scenerio where that won't be the case outside the mountains, except maybe the northern most foothills of nc or tn..but of course total precip there is going to be light anyway. If 850's were to cool to 27 F with significant and steady precip., you don't think that colder air would be brought down to the sfc somewhat regardless of sfc td? What would prevent the sfc from cooling down to, say, 32-34? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 FFC says it might snow in my backyard. I'll take their word for it and enjoy my flakeage. Canceling a storm 90 hours out is not a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Marietta To whom are you addressing this? Also, what does love or hate of snow have to do with your comments? Agreed...I love snow, but I think I am just being a realist. The models give NO indication for it. YES it can change, and YES you have to add the human touch and element for sure. I still think the EURO is to warm given that look..Still don't know if it will matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Marietta To whom are you addressing this? Also, what does love or hate of snow have to do with your comments? To the entire forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 At this point especially after today's runs, I am more worried over an apps runner than I am this storm being suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The euro is pretty classic aloft for the NC mountains/foothills/NW piedmont. the timing of the phase is pretty consistent will big dogs of the past. the read out of the soundings at HKY is close an isothermal layer from the sfc up, meaning it's borderline but would likely be enough. This is given the precip' charts being off, which they look like they would be to me. That said, this is just one run and it's too early to buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Looking at 2m maps from the Euro, it does something really weird. It shoots the foothills up close to 50 while it keeps a cold pocket to the SE of Charlotte. Something fishy is going on there, so it'll be interesting to see what happens next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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