franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I don't know that word, but I'm assuming it's good because that's a lot of QPF for North Carolina per Tropical Tidbits. Track look little too far east for us in WNC, but it's something. Correct me if I'm wrong?jma has the surface low hundreds of miles off the coast ofor se nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Needless to say with this jump in the Euro... It will be interesting to see how the ensembles will respond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Normally this track would be terrible for me (in Greenville NC), but it just so happens I'll be skiing up at boone this weekend (getting in Thursday night) and staying at 5,000 ft so feeling pretty good with the trend of the NAVGEM, CMC, and EURO. Although precip still a question mark in WNC and I'm still a bit weary on Temps even out there. Hopefully stronger high pressure takes hold to the north than modeled to bring upstate SC and central NC to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I don't know that word, but I'm assuming it's good because that's a lot of QPF for North Carolina per Tropical Tidbits. Track look little too far east for us in WNC, but it's something. Correct me if I'm wrong? jma has the surface low hundreds of miles off the coast ofor se nc. Looking at the crude maps, it throws precip all the way back into TN. Much more expansive precip shield than the other modeling. Maybe it's just the JMA being crazy, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 N. GA should see flakes with this system. We do well in setups like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 N. GA should see flakes with this system. We do well in setups like this. Marietta, Do you mean N GA should see backside snow flurries/showers? What do you mean by N GA? That's believable (especially at a place like Marietta) though that would almost definitely be nothing like the potential you'd get from a solid frontend hit. Or are you talking about the frontend? Are you talking just the mountains? When I say I'm out, I mean for the frontend. 850's are clearly too warm now. This winding up isn't doing ATL area any good for the main show....mo shocker there. However, there could be some backend stuff with little chance of any meaningful accumulation imo since it typically dries out so fast with NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 N. GA should see flakes with this system. We do well in setups like this. At 850mb, temps are OK on the Euro (a hell of a lot better than the GFS). I don't know about 2m temps though. Either way, If there still remains a way for us to have a chance, I would rather hang my hat onto the Euro over the GFS right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Substantial expected shift in the 12z EPS Mean. The mean supports a coastal for sure now. The mean of east of the op, unsurprisingly. The mean has 0.5"+ QPF all the way back to I-85 in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Substantial expected shift in the 12z EPS Mean. The mean supports a coastal for sure now. The mean of east of the op, unsurprisingly. The control destroys you and Franklin. HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Marietta, Do you mean N GA should see backside snow flurries/showers? What do you mean by N GA? That's believable (especially at a place like Marietta) though that would almost definitely be nothing like the potential you'd get from a solid frontend hit. Or are you talking about the frontend? Are you talking just the mountains? When I say I'm out, I mean for the frontend. 850's are clearly too warm now. This winding up isn't doing ATL area any good for the main show....mo shocker there. However, there could be some backend stuff with little chance of any meaningful accumulation imo since it typically dries out so fast with NW flow. I'm not giving up on any options right now but back end snow showers and flurries for mby looks pretty likely. I'll take a positive trend to get me a snowstorm on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 At 850mb, temps are OK on the Euro (a hell of a lot better than the GFS). I don't know about 2m temps though. Either way, If there still remains a way for us to have a chance, I would rather hang my hat onto the Euro over the GFS right about now. Yep, I'm ok with where we are right now for North Atlanta. Also Monday's system looks snowy here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 At 850mb, temps are OK on the Euro (a hell of a lot better than the GFS). I don't know about 2m temps though. Either way, If there still remains a way for us to have a chance, I would rather hang my hat onto the Euro over the GFS right about now. toxic, Unfortunately, the 850's have warmed considerably over the last 24 hours of runs and are verbatim too warm for snow in Atlanta in advance of the 1/23 system on the Euro other than perhaps the northern burbs. Furthermore, they obviously could even warm further on future runs. The trend is not your friend right now for the main part (front-end). Either the models are on crack with regard to their sudden significantly warmer 850 predictions over the last 12 or so hours or this one is dead for the front-end in ATL, which I now believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Substantial expected shift in the 12z EPS Mean. Yeah, that was indeed a significant shift nw and stronger with the coastal. Euro Ens agrees with Op - peak interest would be NC mtn areas given sketchy temps. It's funny that we've been following this system for 5 days or so, yet there is still 4-5 days to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Also Monday's system looks snowy here as well. It's worth watching. Closed ridge out west with steep trough in the east...energy diving well south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Substantial expected shift in the 12z EPS Mean. The mean supports a coastal for sure now. The mean of east of the op, unsurprisingly. The mean has 0.5"+ QPF all the way back to I-85 in NC. Remember that GEFS ensemble member porn I just posted in the Banter? Yeah....Euro has a few members that are insane for NC per low track... lots of sub 990s in the right place, 985, 984, 983, 986...etc. Wow. Tight cluster too...this one is going coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The control destroys you and Franklin. HECS.it looked better than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 500mb looks pretty much identical on Euro Ens and Euro Op with phasing in Texas, then trough moves east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 For 1/23: The 12Z EPS mean is significantly wetter than the 0Z EPS but is also consistent with the warmer 850's trend of model consensus since yesterday and is suggesting that 850's ahead of and during the heart of the storm would be warmer than 0C for at least much of N GA (including ATL-AHN) for any front-end/major stuff. The mean 850 0C line is now almost all of the way up to the GA/TN/NC border! In other words, the trend for N GA is toward a sig. cold rainstorm on 1/23. How exciting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Arrow key through these 850's maps. Trend looks colder to me but my target date is 06Z the 27th (Tuesday) http://www.daculaweather.com/4_gfs_test_t850mb_nh_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Looks like there's three clusters of lows. A cluster of 8 that run just inland, a cluster of about 7 just E of HAT and another cluster of 8 about 50 miles SW of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The control goes from 1001 just offshore MYR to 996 in Pamlico sound to 984 just 75 miles or so southeast of Salisbury, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 FWIW, the 12z NAVGEM is now a cutoff low over TN with the sfc low bombing off along the SE coast line. Big mtn snow with that setup. The cutoff scenario does allow confluence to build in and set up a 1030mb high at 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro does have some dynamic cooling wet snow for western/northern NC, but I agree with GAwx- any chance in ATL-AHN is done. Another cold rain, blech. I prefer the nice 60F weather we are getting right now, in fact I am just about to take a nice long walk. Agreed...although I never believed we would get anything from it to start with. Not once that I'm aware of have the models been cold or dry enough in the low levels. So i'm really not sure why there has been so much focus on it. Even with this wetter solution, I'm having a hard time believing the mid levels and/or the boundary layer cools off enough outside the mountains anywhere. The areas that have the best shot of it even happening in nc only recieve around 0.50 liquid altogether with a significant portion of that falling when it's clearly not going to be cold enough. While totals are much less over eastern tn with 0.25 or less there. So in the end, even if it cools off enough, there won't be much precip to fall as snow. Clearly the only shot of anyone seeing anything worthwhile from this system is in the higher elevations of north ga/nc and maybe tn. But even there it shows only 0.25 to less than a half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 FWIW, the 12z NAVGEM is now a cutoff low over TN with the sfc low bombing off along the SE coast line. Big mtn snow with that setup. The cutoff scenario does allow confluence to build in and set up a 1030mb high at 96 hrs Euro has similar look, just doesn't cutoff yet...but has the HP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Agreed...although I never believed we would get anything from it to start with. Not once that I'm aware of have the models been cold or dry enough in the low levels. So i'm really not sure why there has been so much focus on it. Even with this wetter solution, I'm having a hard time believing the boundary layer cools off enough outside the mountains even in north carolina. The areas that have the best shot of it even happening only recieve around 0.50 liquid altogether with a significant portion of that falling when it's clearly not going to be cold enough. So in the end, even if it cools off enough, there won't be much precip to fall as snow. Clearly the only shot of anyone seeing anything worthwhile from this system is in the higher elevations of north ga/nc and maybe tn. But even there it shows only 0.25 to less than a half inch. Lookout, The Euro has had a warm bias of several degrees at 2m in steady precip. situations like this for years. We've discussed this including last Feb. The new GFS also appears to have this same bias. Also, the 850's were below 0C down to/near MCN on many runs. They were cooling substantially with the precip. due to very dry air at 850 mb. So, when these things were taken into account, I maintain that the consensus was, indeed, cold enough. With heavy enough precip. and 850's several degreees below 0C, why wouldn't that be enough to get SN to the ground? It wouldn't even need to go anywhere close to isothermal to do that if 850's are near, say, 27-28. 34 at the sfc could allow for sticking on grass if heavy/steady enough. However, with 0C 850's now so much further north, it is a totally different story imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Dec 2009 folks. I'm licking my chops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 SJ special... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 LOL, Pack, you can always count on the control run to bring the goods. Looks like the EPS Mean has ticked up to over 2" now with about half of the members showing hits (I'm guessing some are still OTS and there are probably some really amped members that are merely rain). Of the hits, I'd say a third are major like the control, a third are moderate, and a third are light. RDU and CLT's means are around 1.2". Not a bad look at this point, though there's still a long way to go. Wouldn't be surprised if we rain while DC HECSs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Stupid question but what is HECS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 historic east coast storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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