superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 NAVGEM FTW... Wow. Leading the way. The Euro's a little too much for our own good, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Navgem for the win, wow!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 She'll be coming around the corner hot, so if I was in DC, I'd be all * ALEEt*, and stuff! DT has a thread going already! MA HECS incoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Several pieces of energy that could change this for the better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 At least surface temps are just fine on the Euro. 850s just a hair warm for C NC, but still... Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 DT has a thread going already! MA HECS incoming... Reminds me of Dec 09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 At least surface temps are just fine on the Euro. 850s just a hair warm for C NC, but still... Amazing. We just need a little more NS interaction to yank down some cold, plus we need this track (Franklin close your ears/eyes) a little more east, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 What a bummer...we get no qpf and colder, get qpf and warmer now. I for one was in the crowd of "the 2m temps will be overdone if the 850's are THAT COLD and qpf was heavy enough" well, I figured it was the harder thing to get the QPF up there. Well, crap, now it is *SHOWING* qpf up there, but its also saying 850mb temps are MUCH warmer so its all a moot point...who cares at this point for heavy rain. **IF** the doc is right, I could see some light snow over southern TN, the MTNS, and WNC. Everywhere else...NADA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Navgem for the win, wow!!!! Doesn't the navgem suck for everyone but the NE? That track is horrible...I feel like we need a close off the coast bomb and get some snow on the backside as it moves up to VA. Anything else and this storm is toast (for the SE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 We just need a little more NS interaction to yank down some cold, plus we need this track (Franklin close your ears/eyes) a little more east, LOL Yeah, even for my area, a track over the Pamlico Sound isn't ideal. I could use it over or east of Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Things are looking pretty decent for us in Western NC at least. ECMWF clown got 3-5 inches between Franklin and Asheville with more higher up in mountains. This could be a nice snow chase if ECMWF is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The weak east based -NAO and weak -AO is definitely helping, this thing is not moving very fast. Plus, we do have a very weak 1025 HP banana'ing around.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Doesn't the navgem suck for everyone but the NE? That track is horrible...I feel like we need a close off the coast bomb and get some snow on the backside as it moves up to VA. Anything else and this storm is toast (for the SE) Looked like it was a big hit for the NC/TN mountains and had some front-end snow even here (and maybe some backside flakes for all). Also looked like snow for N AL and maybe portions of GA, too, with the Superstorm '93-like track. Looked like all-rain for Raleigh, Charlotte, etc., though. The track was awful for C NC, though it was such a bomb it kind of worked out for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 At least surface temps are just fine on the Euro. 850s just a hair warm for C NC, but still... Amazing. yeah temps will fluctuate with track. I'm fine with +1 850mb temps right now. Precip can easily cool the column...not a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 yeah temps will fluctuate with track. I'm fine with +1 850mb temps right now. Precip can easily cool the column...not a bad run. Looks like the h85 low tracks from Charleston to Wilmington to the Pamlico Sound and the h7 low is about the same. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Looks like the h85 low tracks from Charleston to Wilmington to the Pamlico Sound and the h7 low is about the same. Interesting. That's usually a good track for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Things are looking pretty decent for us in Western NC at least. ECMWF clown got 3-5 inches between Franklin and Asheville with more higher up in mountains. This could be a nice snow chase if ECMWF is to be believed. I agree, I'm quite optimistic here in Boone right now with slightly below freezing 850's and 31/32 2m temps this could very well be a paste bomb in the High Country of NC and wouldn't be surprised to see the 2m temps trend slightly colder. Call me crazy but I really see this thing having more northern stream interaction given how much it has already trended NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'm pretty sure that Euro track would work out just fine for KHKY. The 850s were at 0 C. I can work with 35 F ground temps. Still several days to go to watch the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'm pretty sure that Euro track would work out just fine for KHKY. The 850s were at 0 C. I can work with 35 F ground temps. Still several days to go to watch the trends.I have to agree with you sir. Even though I am about hour sw of you. Seems that the placement shown at the 850 and 700 level would have the possibility level higher! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 That's usually a good track for this area. Yeah, that's what I was thinking. I'm pretty sure that Euro track would work out just fine for KHKY. The 850s were at 0 C. I can work with 35 F ground temps. Still several days to go to watch the trends. Like me, you're at 33-verbatim, during the heart of the precip, so 2ms would be perfectly fine. Realistically, you'd probably be 31-32 if it were snow, IMO. Of course, in reality we may both be raining if mid-levels are as shown (maybe not HKY as much). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Doesn't the navgem suck for everyone but the NE? That track is horrible...I feel like we need a close off the coast bomb and get some snow on the backside as it moves up to VA. Anything else and this storm is toast (for the SE)navgem looks great over this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'm pretty sure that Euro track would work out just fine for KHKY. The 850s were at 0 C. I can work with 35 F ground temps. Still several days to go to watch the trends. I have to agree with you sir. Even though I am about hour sw of you. Seems that the placement shown at the 850 and 700 level would have the possibility level higher! Sent from my iPhone I agree with both of my fellow foothills/western piedmont peeps, that track is about perfect... the 850's and 2ms are sketchy but hopefully with a stronger system we can all get our first snow of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 navgem looks great over this way. Like you've said, though, we don't get I-95 runners anymore, so we can go ahead and can it! I think the Snowmageddon storm tracked up I-95, but that was a Miller B, IIRC, so a bit different. The secondary low was up in WV or something after it transferred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I agree, I'm quite optimistic here in Boone right now with slightly below freezing 850's and 31/32 2m temps this could very well be a paste bomb in the High Country of NC and wouldn't be surprised to see the 2m temps trend slightly colder. Call me crazy but I really see this thing having more northern stream interaction given how much it has already trended NW I really think we're sitting pretty right now at least enough for a chase to higher elevations. Hopefully UNCA can finally get something enough to launch a balloon (so I can get paid lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 OMG, the 12z JMA is a shellacking for the NW half of NC and VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro was the perfect scenario we've been looking for of stream phasing in the southern plains with positive tilt trough axis in Texas moving to neutral tilt over the SE. Sfc low and 850 low tracks are textbook for snow in central NC - sfc low just off the SE coast to Hatteras and 850 low running just inland of the coast . Two problems - 1) the initial air mass just isn't cold, and 2) during the day 1 to day 3 timeframe, the models have backed off on how far the northern stream is pressing south, so we aren't getting as much of a cold push there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I really think we're sitting pretty right now at least enough for a chase to higher elevations. Hopefully UNCA can finally get something enough to launch a balloon (so I can get paid lol).Yeah wnc looks pretty good for some snow according to the euro. Not jumping on anything yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 OMG, the 12z JMA is a shellacking for the NW half of NC and VA. I don't know that word, but I'm assuming it's good because that's a lot of QPF for North Carolina per Tropical Tidbits. Track look little too far east for us in WNC, but it's something. Correct me if I'm wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I have to agree with you sir. Even though I am about hour sw of you. Seems that the placement shown at the 850 and 700 level would have the possibility level higher! Like me, you're at 33-verbatim, during the heart of the precip, so 2ms would be perfectly fine. Realistically, you'd probably be 31-32 if it were snow, IMO. Of course, in reality we may both be raining if mid-levels are as shown (maybe not HKY as much). I agree with both of my fellow foothills/western piedmont peeps, that track is about perfect... the 850's and 2ms are sketchy but hopefully with a stronger system we can all get our first snow of the season. Yes, sir, gentlemen! This could be the storm for us...or, it may not be. It's still too far out in time. If the LP were to travel up I-95, that might be perfect for the mountains just to our east, but I would feel more comfortable if the path were east of I-95 somewhat. We currently have the European-Canadian Navy on our side. What could go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Are their any analogs for the euro or even Nav. We tend to use Jacksonville Florida- Savanah up to OBX loosely as our benchmark , but there has Tobe some miller As with that track. Love to go back and see there temp profiles , 850 and 2m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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