GaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 The weird thing is that the 6Z GFS continued to show the 850 TD's in the -11 to -13 C range (9-12 F) for many areas! I'm not sure if this is bogus or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Just saw the hr 126 and 132 frames. Textbook. Goes boom as it nears Hatteras. Crushes much of the Piedmont. If only it were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The BL looks okay. Raleigh is borderline on 850s, though. At hr 120, the 850 0C is isotherm runs from around Shelby to around Raleigh/Durham. Thanks James! We need to get Packbacker some snow, so whatever you can do.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GEFS too warm with light precip in GA, marginally OK for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Just saw the hr 126 and 132 frames. Textbook. Goes boom as it nears Hatteras. Crushes much of the Piedmont. If only it were to verify. With cold rain.. mix at best. Boundary layer is anemic with no HP and 850's on the border but the UL dynamics aren't strong enough to make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 With cold rain.. mix at best. Boundary layer is anemic with no HP and 850's on the border but the UL dynamics aren't strong enough to make a difference.Looks like it had sub-freezing 2ms to around the NC/VA border. I'd have assumed that would have been good enough for msot areas to get wet snow, though I was looking at the awful maps from that French site.EDIT: Speaking of the devil, I think it's time for me to splurge and subscribe to the model center here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The good news is there's two models showing an event. The bad news is those two models are the ones most likely to medal at the special olympics. WxBell does show some accumulation from CLT and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 At hr 120, the surface 2m 0C line is just NW of GSO. Temps do go to hell after that, but the storm is practically over by then, so I dunno. The Raleigh WX clown shows 4-5" for a good chunk of I-85. Of course, realistically, that's probably 2-4" of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Thanks James! We need to get Packbacker some snow, so whatever you can do.... We still suck, that ain't changing, but this has a chance for 85 and points NW. Good to see something try and develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 At hr 120, the surface 2m 0C line is just NW of GSO. Temps do go to hell after that, but the storm is practically over by then, so I dunno. The Raleigh WX clown shows 4-5" for a good chunk of I-85. Of course, realistically, that's probably 2-4" of slop.Is this from CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yes, I was talking about the CMC. Looks like the 12z UKMET made a substantial shift, too. DT just started up a thread in the Mid-Atlantic subforum. HECS incoming for them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Oh the Crazy uncle!! LOL Btw, the DOC is up on the stage Larry, folks...What does he SING today? A number 1 hit, or more than likely a crappy off key song and we all booooo him out of the building? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Oh the Crazy uncle!! LOL Btw, the DOC is up on the stage Larry, folks...What does he SING today? A number 1 hit, or more than likely a crappy off key song and we all booooo him out of the building?Chris, Even though the 12Z Doc has yet to be released for 1/23, 1/23 is now dead to me. I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 CMC Ens agree with op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'll be suprised if this ain't a east coast runner. That's 3 models now, be interesting to see if the doc makes it 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Really don't know why so many of you are giving up hope already....really reminds me of the Christmas storm in 2010. That system showed no phase until about 2-3 days out. Similar situation here, plus I find it hard to believe a phased storm won't drag in more cold air for NC and possibly the NW part of SC and NE part of GA. I think the mountains are really sitting pretty right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Really don't know why so many of you are giving up hope already....really reminds me of the Christmas storm in 2010. That system showed no phase until about 2-3 days out. Similar situation here, plus I find it hard to believe a phased storm won't drag in more cold air for NC and possibly the NW part of SC and NE part of GA. I think the mountains are really sitting pretty right now[/quoteI'm out for ATL-AHN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 ECMWF looking a lot stronger/further north- but also pretty warm for everyone, at least so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Really don't know why so many of you are giving up hope already....really reminds me of the Christmas storm in 2010. That system showed no phase until about 2-3 days out. Similar situation here, plus I find it hard to believe a phased storm won't drag in more cold air for NC and possibly the NW part of SC and NE part of GA. I think the mountains are really sitting pretty right now[/quoteI'm out for ATL-AHN. For those places, yes, I don't think even a partially phased storm will help....especially not a full on phase which I believe the CMC is depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I was about to give in, but now the euro is reeling me back in.... Looks to me like some decent wedging at 7am Friday morning on the Euro. At least it looks like their should be some based on surface pressures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 There is absolutely no cold air for this storm. It's is going to have to bomb out very very quickly for anyone in the SE to have a shot....unless a high pressure or some other cold air source mysteriously appears in the next handful of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 DOC did look better QPF wise, but not for people who are cold enough to benefit...NEXT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 12Z Doc is singing a sad song for ATL-AHN. 850's suck for ATL-AHN. They 're so much warmer than they were 24 hours ago even with no qpf then showing. I'm out for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 There is absolutely no cold air for this storm. It's is going to have to bomb out very very quickly for anyone in the SE to have a shot....unless a high pressure or some other cold air source mysteriously appears in the next handful of days. What do you call a cold rain blizzard? The 12z Euro run, LOL. It will change and trend colder :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Just cold enough for parts of NC as it turns up the coast. Nothing major though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 She'll be coming around the corner when she comes.. Does it make the left hand turn on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Euro does have some dynamic cooling wet snow for western/northern NC, but I agree with GAwx- any chance in ATL-AHN is done. Another cold rain, blech. I prefer the nice 60F weather we are getting right now, in fact I am just about to take a nice long walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Thnx Shawn. I type to slow and thnx to everyone for pbp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 2m and 850's at heart of precip....we wanted a NW shift but not that far NW, it tracks the SLP just inside HAT, we need it just outside HAT. SLP is 976 just off the coast, eventually deepens to 966. A little NS interaction would go a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 She'll be coming around the corner when she comes.. Does it make the left hand turn on the euro?She'll be coming around the corner hot, so if I was in DC, I'd be all * ALEEt*, and stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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