Isopycnic Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It's time to start looking down the road. What's next? Summer in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 This storm looks like an AL/GA hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 This storm looks like an AL/GA hit. I hope this thing can turn around from the recent warming 850 mb temperature trends. There's time but this sudden warming of 850's over the last 12 or so hours of various runs is the last thing that the doctor ordered, unfortunately. The odds are not good IMO. Barring something incredibly freaky, it will not snow with 850's a couple of degrees above 0C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I think the precip shield ends up being further north with this system than currently molded. I think in a lot of ways it acts like the Feb 1 (?) storm last year where two days from the event qpf starts ramping up further north and west of again what's currently molded. However I do not think this ends up being a Miller A. We have to go with the hot hand and we have seen these systems a lot this winter and they end up NOT being a Miller A. I don't see anything to change that this go round. I hope I'm wrong though. I tend to agree about the precip probably being further north but it really doesn't matter because the boundary layer is in no way supportive of anything frozen. Wetbulb zero heights are up around 925mb with surface temps in the mid 30s to near 40 at their coldest friday morning with dewpoints only in the 30s (with temps in the upper 40s to low 50s during the day). So even if there is a lot more precip, it's just too warm and it's not even close. That said, if one completely ignores temps, you would think a surprise might be in store..hell of a lot of virga on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 ya, I agree with y'all at this point, we might actually get the QPF, cool, we passed that part, but its a freakin blowtorch at the sfc. 850's have been warming on the models, as Larry and y'all have mentioned, so I think the window is rapidly closing on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 NAVGEM is a Franklin and SuperJames special... Hey, Pack, you do realize that Franklin, NC, is in the southwestern corner of the state? That's nowhere near Greensboro. I guess you could say that NAVGEM map showed snow for both of their areas, but the heaviest precipitation was actually east of Greensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GFS is trying to have more interaction with the streams this run, but in the end....is it really going to matter? my thoughts are sadly NO......Im out on this one guys...Sorry, I just don't see the trends going back in our favor enough to make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GFS looks like its gonna have a better *phased* looked but bury the energy until it can string it out and flatten it eastward. Long story short, about time to give up. edit: What an amazing, yet crummy trend, with the 850's. They have went from like -2c to almost -4c now to barely at 0c around the I-20 corridor. When we had the -3c or so showing at 850mb and some heavier qpf with 2m temps near 37-40 I thought well, maybe possible...NOW, forget it! What a crappy winter folks...just freakin' crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Hey, Pack, you do realize that Franklin, NC, is in the southwestern corner of the state? That's nowhere near Greensboro. I guess you could say that NAVGEM map showed snow for both of their areas, but the heaviest precipitation was actually east of Greensboro. Yeah, but still a good SLP track for you guys. I don't know why I thought it was SE of Winston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yeah, but still a good SLP track for you guys. I don't know why I thought it was SE of Winston. Well, technically, it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I thought the GFS took a step in the right direction, no phase, or weak phase, but it was closer. We need a phase to bring in cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 We need that low north of the lakes to be south of the lakes for a big phased bomb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Hope the Canadian holds on today with it's light snow solution. Even though the NAVGEM is a terrible model, it does give me hope. Of course, hope is a bad thing in this winter of failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Moisture will have no problem getting up to KY now. There is no cold, so it overperforms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Hope the Canadian holds on today with it's light snow solution. Even though the NAVGEM is a terrible model, it does give me hope. Of course, hope is a bad thing in this winter of failure. The GFS leaves the energy behind and the NAVGEM brings it out immediately, progression FTW...probably why the GEFS has been showing hits. The GFS does bring it out right after but nothing really drops in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 UKie has a SLP off the coast, but I don't see any HP. Be funny if we got a coastal end of Jan for it only to be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'll start worrying about temps when I can stop worrying about precip, Pack. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'll start worrying about temps when I can stop worrying about precip, Pack. LOL. NAVGEM has been somewhat consistent , latest 12z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Do temp profiles on either the UK or the Navgem support snow for anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Do temp profiles on either the UK or the Navgem support snow for anyone? Yeah, the NAVGEM tracks it inland a little, pounds western NC into TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The NAVGEM has been the most consistent model of them all. Hope it pulls the coup. It'll be the biggest upset since the Soviet Union lost to the USA in hockey in 1980. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The NAVGEM shows what's possible if the SS energy comes out. Granted none of the other models show this but if we get a miracle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The NAVGEM has been the most consistent model of them all. Hope it pulls the coup. It'll be the biggest upset since the Soviet Union lost to the USA in hockey in 1980. The NAVGEM ends up tracking it up 95, pounding a lot of people. It's a borderline HECS. Ends up sub-980 over the cape, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The NAVGEM ends up tracking it up 95, pounding a lot of people. It's a borderline HECS. Ends up sub-980 over the cape, LOL Looks like it destroys DC. Therefore, it will probably happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I am pretty much throwing in the towel on this one, at least for my neck of the woods. Looks like it should precipitate but the air is just too warm- The HP is not Arctic, 850 temps too warm, the fat lady is getting ready to warble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Woah, watch out. The 12z Canadian has a 1010 mb LP NE of Jacksonville at hr 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The Canadian is a major snowstorm for NC. Wow! Textbook track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The Canadian is a major snowstorm for NC. Wow! Textbook track. LOL, what a track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The Canadian is a major snowstorm for NC. Wow! Textbook track. And temps? The usual torching BL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 And temps? The usual torching BL? The BL looks okay. Raleigh is borderline on 850s, though. At hr 120, the 850 0C is isotherm runs from around Shelby to around Raleigh/Durham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.