superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Precip looked about same as 18z, but I like this rub also! . I'm still a little concerned about temps This run was close to showing a good 1-3" for NE SC and SE NC, but surface temps were too warm there (mid-levels looked fine). Thicknesses were low enough to make me think that could possibly be some wet snow, in reality, if that situation were too transpire. Sub-540 dm 1000-500 mb thicknesses, sub-132 dm 1000-850 mb thicknesses... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The 00z GGEM might be a decent hit for NC. We'll have to wait for better maps. (I'm not talking about a big dog necessarily, but maybe a light/moderate event) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 850s are cold enou gj when precip is falling at hr 108, who knows about surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 850s are cold enou gj when precip is falling at hr 108, who knows about surface. Surface temperatures look a little warm, but you know what? With the thicknesses and mid-level temps they way they are and decent precip, I really don't buy it. I'm a weenie, but that looks like a wet snow with temperatures around/slightly above freezing to me. Of course, with those kinds of temperatures, we'd really want the snow to fall at night and/or have the precip be steady so it doesn't melt in between heavier bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The 00z GGEM might be a decent hit for NC. We'll have to wait for better maps. (I'm not talking about a big dog necessarily, but maybe a light/moderate event) I guess watching white rain fall at 39 would be a win in this winter. The 540 does dance around the northern edge on the GGEM! It's a very fine line, precip gets much farther north and temps would take more of a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Although the surface reflection only changed slightly this run. I like the changes aloft, seems the 00Z GFS moved towards the 00Z NAM. What happens is anyones guess still, but as others have said, seems likely the precip shield will continue to inch northward. 12Z GFS 96 hours 00Z GFS 84 hours 00Z NAM 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 BTW, the 00z GFS has a mega-clipper drop some snow across most of the South on the 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 BTW, the 00z GFS has a mega-clipper drop some snow across most of the South on the 27th.23rd setting the table for clippergeddon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 0Z King looking to come in wetter/less suppressed per prelim maps but also likely a bit warmer. Let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 well, the drunk doc says..NADA for Anyone...well, maybe NTX and OK, but thats it. There was some good, but some bad with it as well. The key will still continue to be how do the streams interact and will there be enough moisture. Then, is it cold enough. I will say I don't like the trends of the 2m temps..I just don't...The H5 look, is interesting for sure and what the hell is up with all the qpf bombs in the gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It should be noted that the Euro does allow the low to turn the corner after it crosses FL and it bombs as it heads NE from there. Precip scrapes E NC/SC, but temps are too warm there. Bit of a change from last run, though it just makes a mightier storm for the fishes, in the end. Like the GFS, the Euro gives a bit of clipper love on the 27th, then we get a nice arctic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The 6z GFS is the worst this storm has looked on many runs. Very suppressed and way too warm. About to stick a fork in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 NAVGEM is a Franklin and SuperJames special... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 EPS report? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 EPS is interesting, definitely some way right tracks but also a nice cluster just off the coast, some are deep too. We need to be rooting for something deep with the lack of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 EPS report? Looks surpressed, with a nice clipper coming in about a week out. It's warmer in the LR vs the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Thanks fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The 00z op is close to something interesting on the storm everyone's focusing on. The pattern is definitely not far off from supporting a SECS. Just need the timing to be right. Would like the to see the models cut off that storm near Maine that precedes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I think the precip shield ends up being further north with this system than currently molded. I think in a lot of ways it acts like the Feb 1 (?) storm last year where two days from the event qpf starts ramping up further north and west of again what's currently molded. However I do not think this ends up being a Miller A. We have to go with the hot hand and we have seen these systems a lot this winter and they end up NOT being a Miller A. I don't see anything to change that this go round. I hope I'm wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I think the precip shield ends up being further north with this system than currently molded. Are you saying this is going to be a moldy system? With 4"+ last week, you might be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 NAVGEM is a Franklin and SuperJames special...ha! Nice eye candy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 6z GFS was not bad looking for next week; if your not comparing it to other runs. Has a couple of clippers that could drop a few inches of snow on somebody. Precip types on day 7/8: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_186_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=186&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150119+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Burger or anyone got the 12z Nam 5h yet. Interested to how it looks. Thnx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Are you saying this is going to be a moldy system? With 4"+ last week, you might be right This is so under molded you really have no idea the problems it will create. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 For whatever reason, 850's are sig warmer on recent model consensus for 1/23 than they were for the prior days. Unlike the too warm 2m temp.'s, this is not a good sign to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It's time to start looking down the road. What's next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It's time to start looking down the road. What's next? spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 For whatever reason, 850's are sig warmer on recent model consensus for 1/23 than they were for the prior days. Unlike the too warm 2m temp.'s, this is not a good sign to say the least.No worries, they will trend colder as we get closer. And the models cannot pick up the dynamic cooling on the NW side of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It's time to start looking down the road. What's next?The 27th clipper! Big hit for all counties that border VA, just like all the other clippers, ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The 27th clipper! Big hit for all counties that border VA, just like all the other clippers, ever! It'll trend north. Why? Because that's what clippers do. Lol, Franklin! True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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