burgertime Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 18z is suppressed. Still a close call and might be some light snow just south of CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 18z is suppressed. Still a close call and might be some light snow just south of CLT. Precip made a noticeable shift north into miss ala and georgia. But surface temps suck back there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Here's a summary of the track of the storm: 12z new 18z As metwannabe stated, better earlier in the run for central GA and SC, but it never turned the corner or really developed the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 If this were the old GFS, this would be right where you'd want it if you were in N GA, E TN, and interior Carolinas. Who knows about the new GFS. I'd say the most concerning thing is that the Euro is showing a similar solution (suppressed). Still LOTS of time. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 This one is a delicate balance system- too positive tilt/less phasing, suppressed and everyone gets the shaft. Too phased/more neutral tilt then most get rain. We need the sweet spot in between- and if that happens I cannot really see a huge snow for anyone, maybe mostly 1-3", more in the mountains. This sums it up well cheez. 18z continues with the less phased / suppressed look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Biggest thing missing is cold air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Biggest thing missing is cold air!what map are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Ill be glad when we can test the new para on a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 18z GEFS looks great, again. Although don't know which looks better the day 5 coastal or the strat run on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 18z GEFS mean is 3"+ for Franklin (western NC) and 2" for central NC with 1" back to 95. Highest ens run I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The NAVGEM continues to look consistently great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 what map are you looking at?18z 2m temps. Coldest I see is around 12z Friday , with upper 30s around N Ga, my area. People say don't worry about 2m temps, and I know it can snow with upper 30s, but that's asking alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The NAVGEM continues to look consistently great. Yea, this run of the navgem is the best one yet and is a thing of beauty for most. Interesting to note that it misses the phase with the southwest energy... i guess we don't necessarily need that interaction if the northern branch can dive down far enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The NAVGEM continues to look consistently great. Don't recall see the NAVGEM spit out a big phased bomb with a perfectly tracking cut off. It deepens, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 18z 2m temps. Coldest I see is around 12z Friday , with upper 30s around N Ga, my area. People say don't worry about 2m temps, and I know it can snow with upper 30s, but that's asking alot 18z says mby is in the 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Ill be glad when we can test the new para on a storm. At the rate we are going, that will be Ana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Hot off the presses folks! Sorry that it is a long video, just a ton of stuff to go over. My latest thoughts on the models, and the trends of them. Its a long shot Friday, but there are some positive trends IMHO today. Check out the video for more please, and Thank you!! -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 18z 2m temps. Coldest I see is around 12z Friday , with upper 30s around N Ga, my area. People say don't worry about 2m temps, and I know it can snow with upper 30s, but that's asking alot850 temps are fine but there is no storm. Your temps are probably based off of partly sunny conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Hot off the presses folks! Sorry that it is a long video, just a ton of stuff to go over. My latest thoughts on the models, and the trends of them. Its a long shot Friday, but there are some positive trends IMHO today. Check out the video for more please, and Thank you!! -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Great video Chris! Unfortunately I live north of I40 in NC, N.Foothills, So chances are I want get any QPF this far north.... #bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Great video Chris! Unfortunately I live north of I40 in NC, N.Foothills, So chances are I want get any QPF this far north.... #bummer Thanks BF...I hope it makes up your way, but not sure if it can/will. All options still on the table IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 NAM doesn't look that bad, only out to hr84 as y'all know. There looks to some partial phasing about to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Great video Chris! Unfortunately I live north of I40 in NC, N.Foothills, So chances are I want get any QPF this far north.... #bummer Like most events since late summer they are sliding east and south or cutting to the west . Unless the upper levels change in a dramatic way this year doesn't seem to be our year. But it only take 1 system to change it all! Right now when the cold does come in its more of a NW flow which as we know dries us out in the foothills. We need the cold to come in around Minn and slide to the east and funnel down the cold on the east side of he mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Nice catch delta dog. Certainly looks considerably better than some of the other models. I noticed a distinct difference in while comparing jets at 300mb for 12Z on Thursday as well. The NAM is further south and west with the short wave trough in question, and takes on a more neutral look. Both factors when combined with a possible phase would like lead to a healthy low in the northern Gulf. IF**** models were to converge on this solution, we'd then would have to keep an eye out for the possibility of the system turning the corner too early AND continue to watch the marginal temps (would like to see that 540 line down towards Atlanta or further south given a strong area of high pressure to the north seems unlikely). It is nice to see medium range models starting to pick up the storm as they have been game changers in the past. Edit: Upon second inspection it appears that an area of low pressure off of the New England coast may be a big player, which will likely play a part in determining the over long wave (trough) set up depending on the lows evolution. NAM 00Z 84 hour GFS 12 Z 96 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Nice catch delta dog. Certainly looks considerably better than some of the other models. I noticed a distinct difference in while comparing jets at 300mb for 12Z on Thursday as well. The NAM is further south and west with the short wave trough in question, and takes on a more neutral look. Both factors when combined with a possible phase would like lead to a healthy low in the northern Gulf. IF**** models were to converge on this solution, we'd then would have to keep an eye out for the possibility of the system turning the corner too early AND continue to watch the marginal temps (would like to see that 540 line down towards Atlanta or further south given a strong area of high pressure to the north seems unlikely). It is nice to see medium range models starting to pick up the storm as they have been game changers in the past. NAM 00Z 84 hour GFS 12 Z 96 hour Good find there as well. That would certainly help things get cleared for take off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 swing and a miss...strike a million GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Good find there as well. That would certainly help things get cleared for take off! Oh yeah! Ways to go but nice to see the potential is still out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Slightly better run for most of NC. We actually get precip, unlike on the 18z run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 We are starting to get to the point in the weekend storm where the operational becomes more of a skilled tool than the ensemble mean. If there is to be a significant event, you would hope/expect that the operational would show a shift towards a partial phase in the next few runs (GFS, Euro). I'd give it another 48 hours before writing off anything, however. 0z was better than 18z, but it looked more like noise to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Slightly better run for most of NC. We actually get precip, unlike on the 18z run! Precip looked about same as 18z, but I like this rub also! . I'm still a little concerned about temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 00z held serve, still think this is where we wants the models to be this far out (assuming the new gfs has the same nw trend the old gfs had). although i agree with nflwxman, here in the next day or so we need to see some significant trends towards a phase if it is in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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