burgertime Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Euro is very close to a big phased out storm @96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 It's starting to phase @99 but it might be too late. This one is very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Euro is very close to a big phased out storm @96. I agree...ridge is taller, energy is hanging back more and northern stream energy right above it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Euro not as wet as last nights run...but very close to something bigger as it was colder. Has light snow for areas of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 With the energy hanging back like it is, it might be only a matter of time before we see it perfectly come together one run....this looks like an all or nothing event. Either it's off the coast or it turns into something bigger. We'll see. Not a bad run as far as the overall setup is concerned however you would be fooled if you looked at 850mb/mslp maps. I'm interested to see what some of the 12z EPS members look like and if any of the lows are ramped up off the coast of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Anyone have precip amounts compared to the 0z for the freezing drizzle event, prior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Frustrating... I want to wishcast this one into a bigger system closer to the coast, but I'm just not thinking it's going to happen. I'll continue hoping, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Robert had a great write up on this system last night. Wish I could post it. He really nails down what to be rooting or hoping for at 5h and the euro was with in a hair of just doing it. Great read if you have access. I'm throwing all the chips in this week. Tired of waiting on the pattern to do this and that. I'll take a .20ish sleet frzng drizzler, topped off with several inches of wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Anyone have precip amounts compared to the 0z for the freezing drizzle event, prior? .1-.2" for Wake Co. .3" is like 20 miles east. Wetter than 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Thursday still looks like dog crap! Dry, not even a low anymore, so much strung out junk, low over the lakes, so many things wrong, this threat is toast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The OBX don't even get any precip, LOL. The Euro will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Of course, then the Para comes in wetter. Hug it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Of course, then the Para comes in wetter. Hug it!Yep para has a blob over TN, of course it's torchy, but we will work that out later! The low over lakes is consistently annoying! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I wouldn't count it out just yet. Lets see the Euro first. If I remember correctly many of the earlier ensemble runs showed promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The Canadian comes in a little wetter at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The Euro has some light snow for parts of NC. Pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Euro @ 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Problem with the Euro is that it slowly seems to be advancing to more of a GFS look. Every run our energy seems to get weaker and strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 A nice warm spell coming up. Fri -Tues looks to be about 5+ degrees warmer than avg each day and sunny and dry also! Nice weekend incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Problem with the Euro is that it slowly seems to be advancing to more of a GFS look. Every run our energy seems to get weaker and strung out.Bingo front row. The energy look and pattern has been awful this year so far. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Bingo front row. The energy look and pattern has been awful this year so far. Sent from my iPhone The worst part is the models have given us just enough hope to believe we might scrape by with something. Here is hoping we get more juiced energy once it's properly sampled and we get surprised with something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The worst part is the models have given us just enough hope to believe we might scrape by with something. Here is hoping we get more juiced energy once it's properly sampled and we get surprised with something. The 00z runs tonight should be telling whether or not that system turns into anything. If no improvement, if you will, I'm ready to write it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 276 on looked like the DEC pattern on the euro control last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 276 on looked like the DEC pattern on the euro control last night. It's a step back pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Lol the control run what about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Isotherm just made a great post about the rest of month in the main winter thread. I think it goes along very well with what Webber has been saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Isotherm just made a great post about the rest of month in the main winter thread. I think it goes along very well with what Webber has been saying. A nice writeup as usual for Iso, but there is still a lot of "IF the atmosphere does this(x) AS FORECASTED, we SHOULD see this(x)" in there. For whatever reason (pacific tropical forcing, etc), the atmosphere isn't behaving like expected. Until it happens, I will remain skeptical of it ever happening. Just like this past summer/fall waiting on a Nino No....I'm not saying winter is over...lol....after all, it's only mid Jan and we have about 5 wks left in our window. It will just take threading that needle to get the job done without any blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 So how's the 16/16 looking? Bomb ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 A nice writeup as usual for Iso, but there is still a lot of "IF the atmosphere does this(x) AS FORECASTED, we SHOULD see this(x)" in there. For whatever reason (pacific tropical forcing, etc), the atmosphere isn't behaving like expected. Until it happens, I will remain skeptical of it ever happening. Just like this past summer/fall waiting on a Nino No....I'm not saying winter is over...lol....after all, it's only mid Jan and we have about 5 wks left in our window. It will just take threading that needle to get the job done without any blocking I agree a lot of ifs. With the way everything was shaping up in the fall looking so good it is amazing just how everything has virtually fell apart in early season winter. Just goes to show you there are so many variables to the whole hemispheric pattern and how it affects our weather. To me the SAI has taken a huge hit in my opinion. Unless th AO tank and stays very negative I just don't see how we do not end up positive for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 So how's the 16/16 looking? Bomb ? It's looking like you need a new calendar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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