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Winter medium range model pbp I


GaWx

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With the energy hanging back like it is, it might be only a matter of time before we see it perfectly come together one run....this looks like an all or nothing event. Either it's off the coast or it turns into something bigger. We'll see. Not a bad run as far as the overall setup is concerned however you would be fooled if you looked at 850mb/mslp maps. I'm interested to see what some of the 12z EPS members look like and if any of the lows are ramped up off the coast of NC.

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Robert had a great write up on this system last night. Wish I could post it. He really nails down what to be rooting or hoping for at 5h and the euro was with in a hair of just doing it. Great read if you have access. I'm throwing all the chips in this week. Tired of waiting on the pattern to do this and that. I'll take a .20ish sleet frzng drizzler, topped off with several inches of wet snow.

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Bingo front row. The energy look and pattern has been awful this year so far.

Sent from my iPhone

 

The worst part is the models have given us just enough hope to believe we might scrape by with something. Here is hoping we get more juiced energy once it's properly sampled and we get surprised with something. 

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The worst part is the models have given us just enough hope to believe we might scrape by with something. Here is hoping we get more juiced energy once it's properly sampled and we get surprised with something. 

The 00z runs tonight should be telling whether or not that system turns into anything. If no improvement, if you will, I'm ready to write it off.

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Isotherm just made a great post about the rest of month in the main winter thread. I think it goes along very well with what Webber has been saying.

A nice writeup as usual for Iso, but there is still a lot of "IF the atmosphere does this(x) AS FORECASTED, we SHOULD see this(x)" in there. For whatever reason (pacific tropical forcing, etc), the atmosphere isn't behaving like expected. Until it happens, I will remain skeptical of it ever happening. Just like this past summer/fall waiting on a Nino  :P  No....I'm not saying winter is over...lol....after all, it's only mid Jan and we have about 5 wks left in our window.  It will just take threading that needle to get the job done without any blocking   ;)  

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A nice writeup as usual for Iso, but there is still a lot of "IF the atmosphere does this(x) AS FORECASTED, we SHOULD see this(x)" in there. For whatever reason (pacific tropical forcing, etc), the atmosphere isn't behaving like expected. Until it happens, I will remain skeptical of it ever happening. Just like this past summer/fall waiting on a Nino  :P  No....I'm not saying winter is over...lol....after all, it's only mid Jan and we have about 5 wks left in our window.  It will just take threading that needle to get the job done without any blocking   ;)

I agree a lot of ifs. With the way everything was shaping up in the fall looking so good it is amazing just how everything has virtually fell apart in early season winter. Just goes to show you there are so many variables to the whole hemispheric pattern and how it affects our weather. To me the SAI has taken a huge hit in my opinion. Unless th AO tank and stays very negative I just don't see how we do not end up positive for the winter.
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