GaWx Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 It looks like Tony is near the sweet spot per the 0Z GFS for the best shot at several inch snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I agree FULLY!! GFS is very close around here yes MCN to some snow. I know verbatim its a big NO, but it wouldn't take much. Well, if we had the Pacific blocked up, I would give you guys down in the extreme deep south the green light, referring again to December 1989 & February 1973, you don't necessarily need the NAO to be down, but the Pacific usually has to cooperate if the Atlantic doesn't. Although the Equatorial VP looks fantastic, potentially poised to rack up the 9th winter storm in a row in central NC when the -VP was over 30-60E, I don't like the trough axis extending from the Gulf of Alaska thru Alaska itself. If only we had this setup a couple of weeks later when the jet wavelengths were considerably shorter, I'd feel a lot better about our chances... I'm torn between whether to buy into history & climatological behavior of the pattern response to troughing over Alaska (which usually isn't all that favorable for wintry wx in the south) that doesn't favor this event occurring or continue to ride my red hot Equatorial VP research which is 8 for 8 on winter storms in central NC since I began to monitor it's evolution. (All 7 RAH events since the beginning of last winter & the historic snowfall in & around Columbia on November 1st). This will be fun to watch w/ the mean epicenter of the active cell of the MJO closing in on that pivotal 30-60E band. I have my popcorn ready... Maybe I should just split it right up the middle & go w/ a flizzard on this one, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I'm gonna side with the equatorial vp research for obvious reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 OK... I have a test of the GFS going on. I'm capturing all 4 model runs beginning with 06Z Saturday, for 06Z Tuesday the 27th. and saving images of the following: NH 500 MB temps NH 500 MB temp anomalies NH 850 MB temps NH 850 MB temp anomalies Conus T2 Conus 6hr precip-ptype-mslp Conus 850t-precip All of this will be loops of each type. That way you can see the model changes day by day for each particular category. There are only 4 images in the loops so far but I will add additional images after the model runs are complete. Use the forward and backward buttons to toggle between images. Here's a link to the 500 MB anomalies and there are links on this page to take you to the other loops. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_gfs_test_500mb_anom_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GFS @ 132 @ 144 CMC @ 120 @ 132 EURO @ 120 @ 144 GFS Ensembles @ e-WALL are showing various depictions of this storm as well. As others have stated, temps will be a factor, except maybe the northern fringe. But overall I like the look. We don't want to be in the bullseye at this stage in the game anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 We finally got dgexed for the first time this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 6z gfs is similar to 0z. Precip shield is a little further south through the SE, but the trough seems sharper. The storm is very much still on the board and it's 50-100 miles away from giving many on the board a big event. I'm anxious to hear about the EPS when those in the know wake up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Hopefully this thing will trend north and west some and more than not it usually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Hopefully this thing will trend north and west some and more than not it usually does. That's the only hope for us in TN. I know the old GFS would eventually bend precip back northwest, but I don't know about the para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Well the soi came iN at -30 this morning. Hopefully something an start brewing out of the southern stream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 DGEX clown map is a thing of beauty. Someone should post it. I'm on my mobile right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Although the DGEX, an extension of the NAM if I understand correctly, has a clown map that is usually largely a joke (after all, the DGEX model overall is a clown), it probably shouldn't be totally ignored in this case. One reason is that this is not at all a ZR/IP situation, which is one thing that I think causes the DGEX to overdo things on its clown (similar to the Euro). Also, as mentioned, the Euro as well as the NEW GFS, both have a warm bias at 2M causing their clowns to potentially underdo things in this case. I'll put it this way. I would rather have the DGEX on our side than against it in this case. I so wish that the old Goofy were still running, especially because it didn't have a warm bias at 2M. By the way, I loved the 6Z GFS as one might guess. The ball game is very much back on (it really never had ended). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 We still need the southern wave to come out faster or the northern stream to be slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 DGEX clown map is a thing of beauty. Someone should post it. I'm on my mobile right now. As you wish it's still rain for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 DGEX clown map is a thing of beauty. Someone should post it. I'm on my mobile right now. Scoot the cold air another 40 miles further s'east, and I'll post the DGEX and dance on the table! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 On the 6z GFS , was that a clipper coming through on Tues/Wed? , if so that could deliver the cold air for the Thur/Fri storm.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Matthew East posted on facebook that it would only take minor changes in the orientation/timing for this to be nothing or something significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Matthew East posted on facebook that it would only take minor changes in the orientation/timing for this to be nothing or something significant. What does wxsouth say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 What does wxsouth say? They put out an update on the site yesterday stating about the continued uncertainty in the models and how nothing can really be trusted out past Day 5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 They put out an update on the site yesterday stating about the continued uncertainty in the models and how nothing can really be trusted out past Day 5... So, typical winter 96-360hr model-based forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 So, typical winter 96-360hr model-based forecastingNo! It's synoptic forecasting, we don't need no stinking models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 This is the 84hr NAM, for whatev its worth, but you get the idea. Not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 The look is great ... but there's not enough traditional support, per the synoptics gurus, to pull the trigger. We're all so antsy for snow we want to bend this setup to our will, but truth is it simply isn't there yet. But dang ... wouldn't it be nice to nudge things just a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 meh, not gonna get it done this run..VERY euro like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Just one run , but I've seen worse on 12z. Suppressed, but storm is still there and wouldn't take alot to get some moisture, but cold is also a slight concern. Not a bad 4-5 day out look , IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yes everything is a challenge here in the south has to be perfect but id rather have it suppressed at the moment compared to a cutter. Ive heard the same from others. I think the 6z could evolve into something doable down the line. NEXT cmon big dog lets go deep sea fishin mack!!!!!!Reel these boys in a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Folks, I like the 12Z GFS run, the third GFS run in a row with a bonafide Miller A. I love where it is almost as much as if it showed an actual widespread snow. We already have had more than enough runs of the various models to allow us to assume that just a little jog back north (like on the 0Z GFS, GFS/Euro runs from Thu night and earlier, and the several members of yesterday's 12Z GEFS) could easily put many well inland board members into a sig snowfall of multiple inches on 1/22-3 the modeled 2M temperatures be darned. We have also had incredibly good agreement going back some 4-5 days on the timing of some Gulf precip generating system being centered on late 1/22 through much of 1/23. How often does that happen from 8-9 days out and doesn't materialize at all with at least some precip in the SE (wintry or not)? I say not often at all. When one also considers that model consensus generally has more of a tendency to move back north with the track than to move the other way, especially when it was further north earlier, these just a little but too far south tracks are still a pleasure to see. Add to this the late Jan climo, which is about as good as any other part of winter for much of the SE for these to occur. Furthermore, a weakish Miller A moving ENE from the W GOM off of S TX to over N FL and then offshore the SE US (with some strengthening once out there) is about the most common track for major, widespread SE snowstorms that I've been able to find based on looking at wx maps going back well over 100 years. Put this all together and I can't help but at be hopeful/kind of excited about the possibilities even knowing it still may end up as nothing wintry. I always know that to be the case in just about any potential event due to the relative rarity of widespread, sig. SE snowstorms. That keeps me grounded. I'm not going to Vegas right now to bet on a sig winter storm for many. It is still too early to even consider doing that. All I want to have at this stage is reasonable hope for something really nice wintrywise and I have that hope. Game on. Let's see what actually happens. Regarding a phase that results in a stronger but further north track, that would obviously take out many in the more southern areas though there are no absolute parameters. Keep in mind that there's a reason that only 3 of 32 Miller A's that have produced major SN or IP at Atlanta have had a lowest SLP while still in the Gulf that was under 1000 mb. One was the 3/1993 Storm of the Century, which gave them the bulk of their SN on the backside, and two others were in the 995-999 range. So, getting a strong low typically doesn't excite me down in GA as I see it more than likely being detrimental to chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 The 12z GGEM looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It's amazing what jet wavelengths can do to a setup like this, the stronger jet and longer wavelengths are going to be a primary contributor to the suppression of this storm, and will shove it further to the south & east... OTOH, if we had this coming about 3-5 weeks later into @ least the 2nd week of February, it would be game, set, match for a snowstorm in the SE US. not so much now however, as we're likely going to be splitting hairs to receive considerable wintry precipitation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 When Larry starts a post with "Folks," you know it's going to be a good one. Larry, do you think the models will continue to tick colder as we get closer, or that the colder look to the 12z was a direct byproduct of the more suppressed storm track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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