Marion_NC_WX Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Looks like we're good at the 850 and 925 layer. If we're above freezing, it would have to be 950 or above. Looking at temp profile for my area KMRN, just prior to the event (hour 120, 0z Friday), there is an odd-looking warm nose right around 950 mb which does not make a lot of sense... The 3.4 showing up at 950 mb when the layers around it are within a degree of making it isothermal? 966 476 0.6 -1.7 85 2.3 -0.3 2 950 610 3.4 -2.2 67 5.6 1.1 3 900 1047 0.8 -4.6 67 5.5 -1.3 4 850 1504 -2.1 -7.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I really like the look on the op at hour 111, then it flattens out as it rolls towards Friday. It's oh so close as it comes East on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 CMC looks like a big ULL coming down crushing TN and the OV then going OTS. Energy in the south for Friday looks weak at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Burger I think you were referring to the clipper that hits the DC area. The Canadian CMC has a nice storm like the GFS, though it is a bit warm at 925mb. UKMet misses the phase and doesn't seem to have a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 will be interesting to see what the drunk doc does...that was an interesting run..Im sure 2m temps were horrible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 How does it look as far as SFC temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 00z GEFS makes the op look like an outlier Can't make it up. The op has been fairly dry as of late while the GEFS looked better. Tonight they flipped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 How does it look as far as SFC temps? awful to be honest..nobody would see snow if they were right. kind of like the GFS 35-40 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 How does it look as far as SFC temps? Canadian sfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 How does it look as far as SFC temps? Allow me to sell you on dynamic cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Jeeze, how is it that in late January, with the 0 850 line in the coastal plain and a low a hundred miles SE of Charleston that we can't get below freezing temps outside of the mountains? Is this really happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Allow me to sell you on dynamic coolingYou can try... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Allow me to sell you on dynamic cooling Your voice sounds like Jerry Jones. Strong phase and positive tilt in Texas is the answer. EVERYTHING has to be exactly perfect, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Your voice sounds like Jerry Jones. Strong phase and positive tilt in Texas is the answer. EVERYTHING has to be exactly perfect, lol. so in other words....forget it? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Looking at the surface temps on the GFS is like watching the NFL. It takes a special replay analyst to explain why things are happening the way they are. I still would like an explaination as to why the 950mb temps (3.1) is sandwiched in between a boundary layer that is at freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 0z GFS is providing a glimmer of hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 The 00z Canadian brought the southern stream wave on out of the southwest better than any modeling I've seen thus far http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_0zA/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Look out the Doctor is in the house and he means business I think!! Edit: I had just seen the 0Z GFS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 The drunk DOC is trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Look out the Doctor is in the house and he means business I think!! Edit: I had just seen the 0Z GFS!! ya, the drunk Doc is trying, Larry.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Doc definitely a much better run, regardless. This is like Thursday night all over again between the 0Z GFS and this improved Doc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 actually this doesn't kick out the energy...the Northern branch is building down. This WONT get it done *qpf wise* like the GFS did, but MUCH better than the 12z run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Looks like the big boy models trended towards the JMA and NAVGEM tonight. J-N Rule FTW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 actually this doesn't kick out the energy...the Northern branch is building down. This WONT get it done *qpf wise* like the GFS did, but MUCH better than the 12z run so far. Chris, note the very nice and necessary moist WSW flow! A beautiful thing to see. A great trend from 12Z Doc! And wow on the 0Z GFS. Those 12z GEFS members maybe were trying to tell us something after all...i.e., don't give up so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Euro is digging the northern stream back farther west this run, but still missing the phase with the southern piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Doc definitely a much better run, regardless. This is like Thursday night all over again between the 0Z GFS and this improved Doc. Def. a better look. 850's are colder, but good lawd...the 2m temps are AWFUL!!! Light qpf for my way, virtually nada north of me, but obviously much better than 12z run...I am honestly worried about the 2m temps. EURO would be colder at 2m if it had more heavier QPF tho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Chris, note the very nice and necessary moist WSW flow! A beautiful thing to see. A great trend from 12Z Doc! And wow on the 0Z GFS. Those 12z GEFS members maybe were trying to tell us something after all...i.e., don't give up so early. agreed for sure. Def. not time to give up, but the models were getting pathetic before..haha... DOC would be colder at 2m if there was more qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Def. a better look. 850's are colder, but good lawd...the 2m temps are AWFUL!!! Light qpf for my way, virtually nada north of me, but obviously much better than 12z run...I am honestly worried about the 2m temps. EURO would be colder at 2m if it had more heavier QPF tho... I recommend ignoring the Euro and GFS 2M temperatures if steady and sig. precip. is shown. If 850's are below 0C with this precip., it will be several degrees colder than these models show. Also, remember that heavy enough SN would likely stick to at least much of the grass even with 33-35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I recommend ignoring the Euro and GFS 2M temperatures if steady and sig. precip. is shown. If 850's are below 0C with this precip., it will be several degrees colder than these models show. Also, remember that heavy enough SN would likely stick to at least much of the grass even with 33-35. I agree FULLY!! GFS is very close around here yes MCN to some snow. I know verbatim its a big NO, but it wouldn't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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