Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I believe h216-264 may be a better opportunity. TW At least until it gets to 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Tarheelwx, disagree. For us this is the one, patience my friend, I'm feeling this one. Bake the cake with this one and put the icing on top with the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 At least until it gets to 144.yup, then it will be another weak non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 it's not a miller b it's just a clipper that brings us flurries. Plenty of cold which was not our worry to begin with. Oh cool idk it just seems with miller b's the transfer the energy right over us an reforms heavier bands down east towards 77 just my obs with years past give me a weak miller a comin around the bend with a hp over the lakes an ill take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 The Euro's track with the system from 120-144 is not buyable...lows just do not do that, tracking midway through the Gulf and crossing Key West or Miami...either that thing will fizzle totally or that sucker is going 200-300 miles further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 WPC approaching the cliff? EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1056 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 VALID 12Z TUE JAN 20 2015 - 12Z SAT JAN 24 2015 THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ESPECIALLY VOLATILE OF LATE SORTING THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. WHAT THE MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST IS THAT A RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD IS AT HAND, WITH NEITHER ARCTIC AIR NOR DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE BEING STEERED INTO THE NATION. THE SYSTEM THAT WAS BEING TRACKED ALONG THE GULF COAST LOOKS SHEARED AT THIS POINT, AND WITH COLD AIR LESS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EAST, THE CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAVE LESSENED FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. RELIED ON THE BLAND MIDDLE GROUNDS OF THE 00Z/17 ECENS AND NAEFS MEANS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 12z GFS ensemble mean better...wetter and storm is a little slower it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I don't think past GEFS runs had the 0.1-0.25" range reaching central NC, so that is good. Pretty classic LP position for central NC snowstorms, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 18z was nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 18z was nada. Somehow, I bet the 18z GEFS will be much better. It'll probably have 3 or 4 members with hits. And it'll probably have 3 or 4 more that will be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Though I am slightly impressed w/ the overall set-up and the VP will be approaching the critical 30-60E longitude, I would like to see a nice Rex Block crank out over the NE Pacific, and although it's not entirely impossible, we usually don't see Miller As in the absence of HLB in the North Atlantic, much less a Miller B oe overrunning event w/o the advent of anomalous ridging in the North Pacific. In saying this, it appears we can actually pull off overrunning even w/o a -EPO/WPO when the jet wavelengths/strength are appreciably shorter/weaker, thus providing more "flexibility" for the longwave pattern to meander and slide cut-off lows & shortwaves beyond the bounds of the mean flow, as is the case in mid-late February & March. Some examples of preceding 500mb patterns w/ troughing in/around Alaska out ahead of a major winter storms in the southern US include... Blizzard of 1895 (mid February). Southeastern Texas & Louisiana were absolutely crippled. The snow totals from this storm are extremely hard to believe, especially considering the geographic location... Beaumont/Port Arthur, Texas (30") Rayne, Louisiana (24") Lake Charles, Louisiana (22") Houston, Texas (20-22") Galveston, Texas (15") Lafayette, Lousiana (14") New Iberia, Louisiana (13.5") Brownsville, Texas (6") Mobile, Alabama (6") The Great Blizzard of 1899 (mid February). Blizzard conditions were reported along the west coast of Florida coast north of Tampa Bay thanks to ocean effect snow. Late February 1914. Ironically, this was the same year that observed record-breaking snow (in terms of the earliest snow on record) in the preceding November in Columbia, SC, which was of course broken this year. Early March 1927 (arguably the largest snowstorm in the historical record for central & eastern North Carolina, I would certainly argue that it even puts the January 2000 & March 1980 storms to shame). 2 feet+ snow totals were reported in Asheboro (24"), Randleman (24"), Pinehurst (26"), Fayetteville (24"), Edenton (26") and Goldsboro (26"), w/ Nashville, NC east of Raleigh being the big winner, picking up a mind-numbing 31 inches of snow. Here's the monthly snowfall total map from March 1927 so you can get an idea of the scope of the snow totals from the storm in earlier portion of the month... In general, about one half-two-thirds of North Carolina received one foot or more of snow out of that storm. Wow Mid February 1960 February 2004 If we had a pattern like this (or even the one we have now) show up about 3-4 weeks later in mid-late February or March, I would be absolutely thrilled. Too bad it's January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 FWIW, the 18z NAVGEM not only stuck to its guns, but doubled down. It is a bit beastly and tracks a little inland, so it is too warm for any of us. Roanoke, VA on northward into the Mid-Atlantic gets a good hit before it heads OTS. I'm not sure a suppressed solution is set in stone. The individual GEFS members I saw were all over the place and even had a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 hmmmmmm Hr 102...looks like more qpf breaking out over TX, the northern "new" piece is diving south and the southern piece looks** like its trying to keep moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 This could get big! @111 close to a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 @120 starting to phase over TX...look out below! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I really like this look it might not make it but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 hmmmmmm Hr 102...looks like more qpf breaking out over TX, the northern "new" piece is diving south and the southern piece looks** like its trying to keep moving. Maybe Rome, and Gainesville? could see some flurries from your Sun chance. That's actually something pretty close by to look at Probably won't be much, but sometimes those things will drop an inch up there. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 If the southern wave was just a tad faster or the northern branch was slower and dug a little farther west it would have done it. Hopefully that happens on futu5runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Willing to bet tonight that the GFS ENS has some big phased storms on it's panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Diff between 18z (left) and 00z (right) at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GFS at least gets us on the board for the winter, which we desperately need at this point. I don't want to live that research from earlier in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 encouraging that we are seeing these changes here within 120hrs or so, plenty of time to hone in on the details but overall a very good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 GFS at least gets us on the board for the winter, which we desperately need at this point. I don't want to live that research from earlier in the week.The thing about those stats is that they're true until the year that they aren't true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 The thing about those stats is that they're true until the year that they aren't true. Totally true. Last winter defied the torch December statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Franklin is right. In order to get a phase the northern stream always has to come in behind the southern stream and capture it for us. Ann old rule of thumb for mby was it needs to happen east of the Miss river, never want it to close off before then . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It was remotely interesting that the 18z GFS Ens had a few members that cut west of the Apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Looks like we're good at the 850 and 925 layer. If we're above freezing, it would have to be 950 or above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Franklin is right. In order to get a phase the northern stream always has to come in behind the southern stream and capture it for us. Ann old rule of thumb for mby was it needs to happen east of the Miss river, never want it to close off before then . Snow I would normally agree, but the trough tilt is important too. If the trough tilt is positive as it phases (like 00z), then its OK if it occurs in the southern plains, west of the Miss R...i.e. it can't yank the sfc low too far north in that case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Early returns show KFAY as the winner that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I hear you grit. trough looks a shade more positive in 0z vs 18z, even though it let go of all the energy from the sw. You'd think the trough would be tilting more neutral instead of forward leaning . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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