South_MountainWX Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 If that clipper verifies its guna lower our chances i hate miller b with a passion maybe for you guys down east but the foothills alwaus get srewed with millet b mcdowell county anyway its hard to get the prec over the mtn verses coming up 85 with no terrian to block it but sgill plenty of time not worried. Edit shud have put in banter sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 If that clipper verifies its guna lower our chances i hate miller b with a passion maybe for you guys down east but the foothills alwaus get srewed with millet b mcdowell county anyway its hard to get the prec over the mtn verses coming up 85 with no terrian to block it but sgill plenty of time not worried. Edit shud have put in banter sorry. Did you type that with a potato? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 If that clipper verifies its guna lower our chances i hate miller b with a passion maybe for you guys down east but the foothills alwaus get srewed with millet b mcdowell county anyway its hard to get the prec over the mtn verses coming up 85 with no terrian to block it but sgill plenty of time not worried. Edit shud have put in banter sorry. it's not a miller b it's just a clipper that brings us flurries. Plenty of cold which was not our worry to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Yeah, the 23 " event" is a clipper now, per 12z GFS! But , this is just setting the table for the 26th, this is going to be the one to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 The 12z Canadian tracks the low across S FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 12z GEFS mean looks really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 That end of the month storm still there in the LR. Big western ridge sets that one off. Looks like we're heading into a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 18z GEFS mean looks really good. Do you mean 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 12Z GEFS hour 144, similar to the 0Z EPS, suggests many members likely have have a wintry Miller A into much of the SE. The op. looks like a big outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 hmmm..interesting run for sure. we might have to "punt" this one later next week..Highly interested to see what the drunk doc has to say...curious if it will start showing that new clipper. if it does...we might have a REALLY nice threat with some southern energy kicking out, or....we are trying to set the stage for the next storm with the cold...heard and said that toooooooo many times this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Do you mean 12z? Sorry, yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 hmmm..interesting run for sure. we might have to "punt" this one later next week..Highly interested to see what the drunk doc has to say...curious if it will start showing that new clipper. if it does...we might have a REALLY nice threat with some southern energy kicking out, or....we are trying to set the stage for the next storm with the cold...heard and said that toooooooo many times this year. unless it has a cutter for next Friday it's time to bail on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 12Z GEFS hour 144, similar to the 0Z EPS, suggests many members likely have have a wintry Miller A into much of the SE. The op. looks like a big outlier. Either the para is really good or is really struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Sorry, yes!I assume it's good for central and eastern nc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 12Z GEFS hour 144, similar to the 0Z EPS, suggests many members likely have have a wintry Miller A into much of the SE. The op. looks like a big outlier. hmmm...Thanks Larry! Doesn't surprise me that the OP is in la la land... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 0z ukie had nothing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 unless it has a cutter for next Friday it's time to bail on that one. not yet silly.....I didn't say lets cancel it..LOL Sounds like, and I figured as much, the ENS say the op is on CRACK!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I assume it's good for central and eastern nc? Need to see the members but mean is just off the coast, shows overrunning snow for N-GA/SC and western NC and the coastal has snow all the way back to a good part of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 0z ukie had nothing too. The 12z UKMET agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 12z NAVGEM has a beautiful miller a that gives snow to N-NC/SC and a lot of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 12z NAVGEM has a beautiful miller a that gives snow to N-NC/SC and a lot of NC. It had a big hit last night, too, IIRC. Ride it! Isn't it supposed to be biased towards suppression in these cases? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 The GEFS mean clearly shows a Miller A/cold SE precip. episode. So, several members must have something similar. The mean actually shows a classic W GOM developing weak Miller A that then moves ENE across N FL and then and makes it offshore as a 1016 closed SLP moving off of the SE coast. Remember that's the mean. QPF is over 0.25" for many areas that could be cold enough for SN. The highest QPF is ~0.75" near and just to the north of the track of the low, normal for a miller A. That is a lot of QPF for an ens mean, especially considering that the op. run has zilch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 12z GEFS : The 192hr snowfall has 0.5 for most of sc. 1 inch for upstate, northern ga through atl even, .50 in a big chunk of al. most of nc with 1 inch Edited to fix it to the correct model, lol. GEFS, not GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 The GEFS mean clearly shows a Miller A/cold SE precip. episode. So, several members must have something similar. The mean actually shows a classic W GOM developing weak Miller A that then moves ENE across N FL and then and makes it offshore as a 1016 closed SLP moving off of the SE coast. Remember that's the mean. QPF is over 0.25" for many areas that could be cold enough for SN. The highest QPF is ~0.75" near and just to the north of the track of the low, normal for a miller A. That is a lot of QPF for an ens mean, especially considering that the op. run has zilch! Yes, it has trended wetter for the SE... See trend loop (model center subs only): http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfsens&run_time=12z¶m=850mbTSLPprecip&map=NA&run_hour=150&loop=trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Yes, it has trended wetter for the SE... See trend loop (model center subs only): http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfsens&run_time=12z¶m=850mbTSLPprecip&map=NA&run_hour=150&loop=trend Wow/folks, Thanks. I just looked at the 12 members at hour 144. One is the op (C1 I think). Out of the other 11, a respectable 3 have a classic Miller A/sig snow for many (P1, 6, 9). Also, C0 has a little SN quite far south though it is a bit suppressed vs what most would want. Plus, P7 is very close and could be good on the next maps. So, all in all, 5 of the 11 non-op. members look pretty good. That's not bad at all. also, note how much of an outlier is the op. (1st member...C001)...no other member has that much of a clipper like it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 CMC ENS look like the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 12z NAVGEM has a beautiful miller a that gives snow to N-NC/SC and a lot of NC.it's trending weaker from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 The 12z JMA still has what looks like a strong storm. Looks too warm for anyone outside of NC/TN, though, and it might even be too warm there. The 12z Euro is worse than the last run. It's cold, at least. Too bad there's no precip within 400 miles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Cold and dry on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I believe h216-264 may be a better opportunity. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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