mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Euro suppressed. Blah. Long way to go yet though, we will see if the trend for the ensembles to be farther north continues.Is there really a NW trend to look for? I hear it mentioned all the time , I guess it's better to have it suppressed at this time, than to have a cutter or runner? How's the cold air supply? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Mack, These last two Doc runs just show that an "in-between" option is still on the table to produce a major snowstorm similar to what the Thursday night GFS/Doc runs showed. Very enouraging. I'm almost as excited as I'd have been if this Doc had shown actual winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 It takes more than 850mb temps being 0c to get snow on the surface. I'd assume with full saturation most likely with a Gulf low, evap cooling would be out of the scenario. If so, then we have to rely in very heavy precip and melting snow. I believe models take both of these processes into account now. All models, actually. Correct me if incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Me too Larry. I love the look right now actually. Sounds like the GEFS and prolly the euro ENS will have some good outputs as well Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 It takes more than 850mb temps being 0c to get snow on the surface. I'd assume with full saturation most likely with a Gulf low, evap cooling would be out of the scenario. If so, then we have to rely in very heavy precip and melting snow. I believe models take both of these processes into account now. All models, actually. Correct me if incorrect. I disagree. In a steady precip/full saturation setup for wintry precip from a Miller, it looks to me that the new GFS has joined the King with a several degree warm bias at 2m in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 GFS ensembles and Euro look to produce a second good looking opportunity for Sun-Mon time frame. As some are saying, its probably better to have a suppressed system at this point then a cutter. Seems to be easier to get a supposedly suppressed storm to work out then a cutter. Hopefully we enter a favorable pattern long enough that we strike gold. Wouldn't mind multiple storms either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Keep it suppressed until Wednesday then let it to what it generally does. Moves north and west a bit. Sounds like this may be the first stom of the winter for most of us. It's still 6 days out so need to get excited or worried after each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Keep it suppressed until Wednesday then let it to what it generally does. Moves north and west a bit. Sounds like this may be the first stom of the winter for most of us. It's still 6 days out so need to get excited or worried after each model run. seems that is usually the trend to be north and west with the suppressed storms as the event gets closer, not always the case but a lot of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 GFS ensembles and Euro look to produce a second good looking opportunity for Sun-Mon time frame. As some are saying, its probably better to have a suppressed system at this point then a cutter. Seems to be easier to get a supposedly suppressed storm to work out then a cutter. Hopefully we enter a favorable pattern long enough that we strike gold. Wouldn't mind multiple storms either... Very much agree with this. I would much rather have suppression at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Control run had a decent event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Well the soi dropped to -10 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 The 0Z EPS mean shows that there must be a good # of members with precip far enough north into the colder air to give them a Miller A sig SN on 1/23. Keep in mind that the last 2 op runs surrounded the best case scenario and that a best scenario did show up Thu night (I think it was). So, this potential sig 1/23 event remains quite possible and keeps me hopeful. Shawn, do you have the # of members along with avg SN for the list of cities? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 So we have a suppressed solution and not cold enough air? I thought the dominating cold air is what caused the suppression ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Very much agree with this. I would much rather have suppression at this range. If I remember correctly, the 1/28 snow event in the south last year looked somewhat like this on the GFS and even the Euro at the 5-7 day range and even inside of that for a time...I recall it being a weak wave traversing the Gulf and Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 So we have a suppressed solution and not cold enough air? I thought the dominating cold air is what caused the suppression ? Mack, The 500 mb flow was too cold/dry so to speak with no real WSW flow and this caused it to be too far south though it came close to giving areas far south with SN. We need the trough axis to be far enough west (dig you pig as one well-known member likes to say) so that we can tilt the 500 mb flow to a more moist WSW flow to keep it moist enough/keep it from being too suppressed and at the same time still allow for it to be just cold enough (850's 0C or less). It is a tightrope because the cold air to the north isn't real strong as of now but it is doable as those GFS/Doc runs showed just a few runs back. Any other opinions? Edit: SG, you are correct I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 If I remember correctly, the 1/28 snow event in the south last year looked somewhat like this on the GFS and even the Euro at the 5-7 day range and even inside of that for a time...I recall it being a weak wave traversing the Gulf and Florida. i've seen this time and time again back to the christmas storm in 2010. 5-6 days before the gfs had it suppressed to cuba and it gradually trended north and west as we got closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 If I remember correctly, the 1/28 snow event in the south last year looked somewhat like this on the GFS and even the Euro at the 5-7 day range and even inside of that for a time...I recall it being a weak wave traversing the Gulf and Florida. I don't remember exactly. But yeah, I would totally rather have that solution, based on historical outcomes. Hopefully, it'll come back. Still pretty concerned about it being cold enough though. If it will be, it will barely be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 i've seen this time and time again back to the christmas storm in 2010. 5-6 days before the gfs had it suppressed to cuba and it gradually trended north and west as we got closer. Like I posted, I strongly agree about wanting it suppressed here. But I still think it's wise to consider that it might be correct. We have seen suppression this year. And we're dealing with a new GFS. And other models are in agreement. That said, there's plenty of time for it to come back and I like it suppressed right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Suppression is ok if there is a southern stream wave involved...but if it is all northern stream, it has to really dig farther south and west. Some of the old suppressed storms that worked out like Dec 2010 and Feb 2010 had key southern stream waves Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 The 12z GFS early maps suggest the trough MAY dig more to our west and allow more WSW 500 mb flow/less suppression this time vs last couple of runs though not sure. But if so, will it be cold enough? Tightrope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Suppression is ok if there is a southern stream wave involved...but if it is all northern stream, it has to really dig farther south and west. Some of the old suppressed storms that worked out like Dec 2010 and Feb 2010 had key southern stream waves Sent from my iPhone yup, it's sucks that we are entering a favorable pattern and our best climo time and the southern stream wants to shut off with the northern stream beING too dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Looks like a no go on this run as well. Not going to lie, my confidence is going down a little bit. The northern stream is just to dominant right now, and the southern stream can't get its act together. We shall see, on to the drunk doc now. edit: the upper part of this, northern stream looks good with a trof over the northern GL, but the southern piece just won't move its AS* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Looks like a no go on this run as well. Not going to lie, my confidence is going down a little bit. The northern stream is just to dominant right now, and the southern stream can't get its act together. We shall see, on to the drunk doc now. edit: the upper part of this, northern stream looks good with a trof over the northern GL, but the southern piece just won't move its AS* The 12z now has a clipper, which is likely not helping things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 We need that energy out west to move out and get in front of the northern piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 so some interesting new features showing up on the GFS. I noticed more of a GL *northern side* trof/LOW...that will keep things supressed for sure, not in a bad way, plus a new clipper to deliver another re-inforcing shot of cold. The southern branch piece HAS to move, or its a mute point anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 The 12z now has a clipper, which is likely not helping things. ya, its not with southern piece getting drunk over the SW. if that kicked/s out, then the clipper could make a nice phase somewhere. will be interesting to see the drunk doc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I think the 12z GFS is close to a miller A bomb.. It just needed that southern piece to not get shunted so far southwest early on. The euro keeps the southern piece farther east and actually phases it with a northern piece early on.... it then gets shredded. If we can find some middle ground here where the southern shortwave can hang back, but come out and meet up at the right time we could be in business. A nice miller A is certainly still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 ya, its not with southern piece getting drunk over the SW. if that kicked/s out, then the clipper could make a nice phase somewhere. will be interesting to see the drunk doc. Yes, but phasing would likely not help in our areas. That may be better for the NE but what's good for the NE is often bad for us. I'd prefer that clipper/n energy not be there and allow the southern stream to do more of its own thing like it did on those sexy runs that gave much of the SE a major SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 At least the 12z is moving in a colder direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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