griteater Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 6, 5, 4, 3, 7 That's the number of members out of 12 on ewall that I see with a winter storm over some portion of the SE on the last 5 runs of the GFS Ensemble....7 being the latest run at 18z The winter storm members are sharper with the ridging into western Canada. The non storm members are flatter there. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_18z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 There are a few members on the euro ensembles that are winter storms for the se but most have nothing or very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 There are a few members on the euro ensembles that are winter storms for the se but most have nothing or very little. Most of the ones that do show snow are big dogs, though. The mean for GSO is over 1.5", which isn't bad for this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 There are a few members on the euro ensembles that are winter storms for the se but most have nothing or very little.Was just looking at that. For INT/GSO/RDU roughly 14-15 members (30%). Let's see is that can improve over the weekend.Where are you close to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 6, 5, 4, 3, 7 That's the number of members out of 12 on ewall that I see with a winter storm over some portion of the SE on the last 5 runs of the GFS Ensemble....7 being the latest run at 18z The winter storm members are sharper with the ridging into western Canada. The non storm members are flatter there. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_18z/ensloopmref.html For the coastal the Euro was showing for yesterday the GEFS was never on board with that, that I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Was just looking at that. For INT/GSO/RDU roughly 14-15 members (30%). Let's see is that can improve over the weekend. The Euro seems to be showing unrealistically warm 2m temps with this storm, so I wonder if that could be cutting into totals at all? I'm not sure if the ensembles have the same biases. At least the Euro won't be showing fake snow in the form of sleet or ZR since ice looks to be off the table for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Was just looking at that. For INT/GSO/RDU roughly 14-15 members (30%). Let's see is that can improve over the weekend. Where are you close to? the mean here is almost three. It's under macon/franklin on weather bel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 The Euro seems to be showing unrealistically warm 2m temps with this storm, so I wonder if that could be cutting into totals at all? I'm not sure if the ensembles have the same biases. At least the Euro won't be showing fake snow in the form of sleet or ZR since ice looks to be off the table for this one. More than half the members have precip day 7-8, roughly 0.5" QPF on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 the mean here is almost three. It's under macon/franklin on weather bel. Gotcha, your about 30 mins SW of INT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 CPC just talked about the GEFS having a flatter bias. Did anyone know that ? I've never heard that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 CPC just talked about the GEFS having a flatter bias. Did anyone know that ? I've never heard thatdon't know it's the para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 CPC just talked about the GEFS having a flatter bias. Did anyone know that ? I've never heard that don't know it's the para. Yeah met, think that just goes along with the idea that the Euro tends to be slower and more amped, while the GFS tends to be more progressive and flatter...but that may chg some with the 'new' GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 don't know it's the para. I thought the GEFS are the same old same old. I thought the GEFS gets upgraded in the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 GaWx - any news on the SOI going negative. Was hoping that would turn around soon to help our Fab Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I thought the GEFS are the same old same old. I thought the GEFS gets upgraded in the spring. Ryan said the GEFS was upgraded the day after the OP was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 This is from the main board, but back in Dec... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 GaWx - any news on the SOI going negative. Was hoping that would turn around soon to help our Fab Feb.it's averaged negative for the last three months but it's been pretty flat this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Gotcha, your about 30 mins SW of INT. No, he's way in the SW of NC past Asheville deep in the mountains (which is why he roots for I-95 runners, haha). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 No phase on GFS looks like. Northern stream dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 No phase on GFS looks like. Northern stream dominant. Well at least this run is a little colder than the 12z ahead of the "storm" especially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 No, he's way in the SW of NC past Asheville deep in the mountains (which is why he roots for I-95 runners, haha). Hell Franklin is still a good two hours away southwest from Asheville, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Northern stream crush job on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Hell Franklin is still a good two hours away southwest from Asheville, I think.about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 #FAIL Too much northern stream this op run... but I am sure the ENS will look better. Oh well, we march on to the drunk DOC...Does it go 7 for 7 with another NEW look?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 The 00z Canadian is wide right. Close for E NC. EDIT: For the 26th. Not sure if it has a storm in the 23rd period, but I doubt it looking at hr 180 (the maps do not come out in order). EDIT #2: The 23rd storm does show up in the Gulf and forms a defined LP, but it crosses central FL and heads way out to sea. It does show precip with sub-0C 850s in southern AL/MS and over into central GA (Macon area), but it's light and 2m temperatures are probably too warm. It actually does show a flizzard for NC, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 GFS ensemble mean much less suppressed and cold enough for some snow north GA east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 The 00z NAVGEM is a big hit for TN/NC (too warm elsewhere). LOL. Nice 996 mb LP over Hatteras at hr 168. Isn't it supposed to be biased towards suppression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 GFS ensemble mean much less suppressed and cold enough for some snow north GA east. I can't wait to see individual members. Anyone have a good sight to see them? Is the old operational GFS still a member?? Based on the GEFS, JMA, and GGEM, game is certainly still on for just about any possibility. Edited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 It looks like the King will come in colder for the 1/23 event. However, does that also mean drier? We'll see. Edit: Going to be a close one. Will precip be too far south or not? Edit 2: Yes siree, much too far south for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Euro suppressed. Blah. Long way to go yet though, we will see if the trend for the ensembles to be farther north continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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